{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["economic trend analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'economic trend analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":4,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=economic+trend+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"iisd-002711","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002711","title":"COMPREHENSIVE WEALTH REPORT Ethiopia","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2024-04","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-05/comprehensive-wealth-ethiopia.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that Ethiopia's real comprehensive wealth per capita grew by 103% between 1992/93 and 2019/20, primarily driven by human capital. However, this trend reversed in 2018/19 and 2019/20. While produced and market natural capital grew, financial capital declined into negative territory by 2019/20 due to high foreign debt. Non-market natural capital indicators show declining land area per capita and rising temperatures, signaling growing environmental pressures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002711#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Ethiopia's real comprehensive wealth per capita grew by 103% from 1992/93 to 2019/20, with an average annual growth rate of 3%, increasing from ETB 102,853 to ETB 208,522.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002711#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The overall growth trend of comprehensive wealth reversed in the final two years of the study, with declines in real per capita terms in 2018/19 and 2019/20.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002711#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Human capital is the largest component of Ethiopia's wealth, representing 50% to 65% of the CWI, and was the primary driver of wealth expansion, growing at an average annual rate of 4%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002711#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Market natural capital is the second largest wealth component (20% to 36% of CWI), with agriculture and forestry together representing 97% of this index in 1992/93.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002711#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Non-market natural capital is under pressure: land area per capita fell by more than half between 1992/93 and 2019/20, and temperature trends are upward.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002711#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Produced capital grew at an average annual rate of 2.7%, concentrated in manufacturing, real estate, construction, and agriculture, though agricultural investment remains low and dominated by traditional technologies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002711#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Financial capital declined significantly, moving into negative territory in 2019/20 (ETB -122 per capita) due to the accumulation of foreign debt and foreign direct investment flows.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002711#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ethiopia has expanded its total forest land from 18.3% to 21.5% of the total land area, which the report identifies as a key step for carbon storage and ecosystem services.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002711#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["natural capital","Sustainable land management","nature-based solutions","carbon capture and storage","climate change adaptation","climate change mitigation","deforestation"],"geography_discussed":["Eritrea"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["comprehensive wealth accounting","sustainability assessment","economic trend analysis"]},{"id":"glorespar-000153","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/glorespar-000153","title":"BLUE ACCELERATION: AN OCEAN OF RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES","publisher":{"name":"Global Resilience Partnership","organization":"global-resilience-partnership"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2021-10","source_url":"https://www.globalresiliencepartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/orraa-blue-acceleration.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report describes the 'Blue Acceleration,' a phenomenal increase in the diversity and scale of ocean-based industries since 2000. It argues that while the ocean is viewed as an economic frontier, the benefits flow disproportionately to a small number of powerful states and corporations, leaving SIDS and LDCs exposed to risks. The document details the environmental and social impacts of sectors like offshore wind, deep-sea mining, and industrial fishing, while highlighting the emergence of interconnected 'Anthropocene risks' including climate-driven regime shifts and stranded assets. It concludes by exploring the role of sustainable finance in redirecting the ocean economy toward equity and stewardship.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"glorespar-000153#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The 'Blue Acceleration' is characterized by an unprecedented expansion of ocean use since 2000, including a five hundred-fold increase in offshore wind energy capacity and the registration of over 13,000 marine genetic sequences in patents.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"glorespar-000153#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic benefits from the ocean economy are highly concentrated; the 'Ocean 100'—the 100 largest corporations by revenue—account for 60% of total revenues (USD 1.1 trillion), with more than half of these revenues ending up in seven countries: USA, Saudi Arabia, China, Norway, France, UK, and South Korea.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"glorespar-000153#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"SIDS and LDCs experience a striking lack of acceleration in high-tech ocean sectors; for example, none of these states have installed offshore wind capacity, and they account for only 0.09% of global aquaculture production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"glorespar-000153#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies 'stranded ocean assets' and 'stranded ocean resources' as significant risks, where investments lose value or resources become unexploitable due to legislation, market forces, or environmental shocks. SIDS and LDCs are particularly vulnerable as 'latecomers' who may receive obsolete technologies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"glorespar-000153#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ocean risks are multidimensional and interconnected, involving biophysical, social, geopolitical, and financial dimensions. The report warns that 'regime shifts'—abrupt, persistent changes in ecosystem structure—are rarely accounted for in current ocean use optimization.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"glorespar-000153#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change is creating new geopolitical tensions and economic vulnerabilities, such as the poleward shift of fish populations and the opening of Arctic shipping routes as sea ice retreats.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"glorespar-000153#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Sustainable ocean finance is currently severely underfunded; SDG 14 ('Life Below Water') is the least financed goal, receiving less than 1% of the total value of the ocean economy through philanthropy and official development assistance over the last 10 years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"glorespar-000153#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Financial institutions can act as 'gatekeepers' to drive sustainability by using sustainability-linked loans, where interest rates are tied to non-financial performance indicators, such as greenhouse gas emission reductions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"glorespar-000153#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["offshore wind power","aquaculture","ocean acidification","marine heatwave","sea level rise","climate finance","blue economy","stranded asset"],"geography_discussed":["United States","People's Republic of China","Norway","France","United Kingdom","South Korea","Saudi Arabia","Singapore","Nauru","Angola","Guyana","Dominica","Bangladesh","Seychelles"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["systemic risk assessment","equity analysis","economic trend analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-002548","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002548","title":"Beyond Fossil Fuels: Indonesia’s fiscal transition","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2019-01","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/beyond-fossil-fuels-indonesia-fiscal-transition.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes Indonesia's shift from a high fiscal reliance on oil and gas revenues to a more diversified economy. It highlights a critical imbalance where government revenues from fossil fuel production are largely offset by inefficient consumption subsidies that disproportionately benefit wealthy households. The document warns of the risk of stranded assets valued between USD 200–300 billion and argues for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies to create fiscal space for renewable energy and social development.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002548#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Indonesia has significantly reduced its fiscal dependence on upstream oil and gas, with these revenues dropping from 35 per cent of total government revenues (7 per cent of GDP) in 2001 to just 6 per cent (less than 1 per cent of GDP) by 2016.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002548#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Between 2014 and 2016, the Government of Indonesia's revenues from fossil fuel production averaged IDR 190 trillion (USD 16 billion) annually, representing 1.8 per cent of GDP or 13.6 per cent of total government revenue.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002548#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Fossil fuel consumption subsidies in Indonesia are inefficient and regressive, with the share of subsidies enjoyed by the richest 20 per cent of the population increasing from 44 per cent in 2004 to 50 per cent by 2014.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002548#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The government's decision to maintain stable retail oil prices until the end of 2019 effectively reintroduced subsidies, with an estimated cost of IDR 24 trillion (USD 1.7 billion) in 2018 borne by the state-owned company Pertamina.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002548#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Indonesia faces a significant risk of stranded fossil fuel assets, estimated between USD 200 billion and USD 300 billion, with the majority of this value concentrated in the upstream sector.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002548#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The government's target to increase the share of new and renewable energy (NRE) in the energy supply mix from 7 per cent in 2015 to 23 per cent by 2025 is facing implementation difficulties due to land permit issues, resistance from coal suppliers, and regulated energy prices.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002548#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regional governments in Bojonegoro, Musi Banyuasin, and Aceh are exploring or have introduced sovereign wealth funds to manage oil and gas resource rents for sustainable development and social purposes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002548#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Indonesia's fuel consumption taxes (VAT and motor fuel tax) are low compared to its subsidies, generating only 0.57 per cent of GDP compared to 1.7 per cent of GDP spent on fuel and electricity subsidies between 2014 and 2016.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002548#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fossil fuel subsidy","renewable energy","stranded asset","economic diversity","carbon dioxide","geothermal energy","solar energy","wind energy","fossil fuel industry","energy transition","just transition"],"geography_discussed":["Bojonegoro","Musi Banyuasin","Aceh","East Kalimantan","Riau Islands","West Papua"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["fiscal analysis","policy assessment","economic trend analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-002549","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002549","title":"Selepas Bahan Bakar Fosil: Transisi fiskal Indonesia","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"id","date_published":"2019-01","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/beyond-fossil-fuels-indonesia-fiscal-transition-bahasa.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Indonesia has successfully reduced its fiscal reliance on oil and gas production, but continues to struggle with inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that benefit wealthy households and hinder the growth of renewable energy. While the government has diversified its economy into manufacturing and finance, contradictory policies—such as maintaining price caps on fuels and prioritizing coal for electrification—create risks of stranded assets and environmental degradation. The report argues for the complete removal of fossil fuel subsidies, the implementation of consumption-based energy taxes, and the strategic investment of resource rents into social safety nets and renewable energy infrastructure to ensure a just transition.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002549#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Indonesia's fiscal dependence on upstream oil and gas production decreased significantly from 35% of total government revenue (7% of GDP) in 2001 to 6% (less than 1% of GDP) by 2016.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002549#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Between 2014 and 2016, the average annual government revenue from fossil fuel production (Rp 190 trillion or USD 16 billion) was roughly equal to the average annual subsidies provided for fuel and electricity consumption.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002549#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Fossil fuel subsidies in Indonesia are regressive and inefficient, disproportionately benefiting the wealthiest 20% of the population, whose share of subsidies increased from 44% in 2004 to 50% in 2014.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002549#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Indonesia faces a significant risk of stranded assets, with estimates suggesting between USD 200 billion and USD 300 billion in fossil fuel assets are at risk, primarily concentrated in the upstream sector.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002549#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The government's target to increase the share of new and renewable energy (EBT) in the national energy mix from 7% in 2015 to 23% by 2025 has faced difficulties due to land permit issues, opposition from coal suppliers, and a lack of fiscal incentives.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002549#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 2015 removal of fuel subsidies resulted in savings of Rp 211 trillion (USD 15.6 billion), which were reallocated toward social safety nets, infrastructure, and village funds.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002549#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Indonesia's consumption taxes on fuel (VAT and motor vehicle fuel taxes) are insufficient, generating only about one-third of the value of the fuel and electricity subsidies during the 2014-2016 period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002549#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regional governments in Bojonegoro and Musi Banyuasin have implemented Sovereign Wealth Fund models to manage oil and gas resource rents for sustainable spending.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002549#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fossil fuel subsidy","energy transition","renewable energy","stranded asset","fiscal policy","carbon dioxide emissions","coal power","geothermal energy","solar energy","wind energy","climate finance","just transition"],"geography_discussed":["Bojonegoro","Musi Banyuasin","Aceh","Norway","Chile","People's Republic of China","India","Europe"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["fiscal analysis","policy assessment","economic trend analysis"]}]}