{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["economic modelling review"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'economic modelling review' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":3,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=economic+modelling+review","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"iejza-000436","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iejza-000436","title":"Can a universal basic income contribute to breaking structural poverty in South Africa?","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Economic Justice","organization":"institute-for-economic-justice"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2022-09","source_url":"https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Working-Paper-UBIG-and-structural-poverty-September-2022.docx.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research argues that a universal basic income grant (UBIG) in South Africa could move beyond immediate poverty relief to dismantle structural poverty by improving labour market participation, health, women's empowerment, and social cohesion. Drawing on local and international evidence, the authors contend that a UBIG funded through progressive taxation would stimulate local economies via multiplier effects and increase human capital. The paper emphasizes that for a UBIG to be effective, it must be unconditional, universal, and integrated with quality public services, rather than serving as a replacement for them.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000436#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"A UBIG set at the upper-bound poverty line (UBPL) would effectively eliminate income poverty in South Africa, though the authors note that eliminating income poverty does not automatically dismantle the underlying structures of structural poverty.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000436#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Evidence from various contexts debunks the myth that cash transfers create a work disincentive; instead, they can facilitate job searches by covering costs for transport, data, and internet.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000436#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Income support can improve child health and nutrition, which has long-term economic benefits by reducing the intergenerational transmission of poverty and increasing adult earnings.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000436#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A UBIG paid to all adults, rather than just household heads, enhances women's financial independence, provides a form of remuneration for unpaid care work, and is associated with a reduction in intimate partner violence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000436#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Universal grants have the potential to strengthen social cohesion and democratic participation by affirming every citizen's stake in society, whereas targeted grants can create social divisions and stigma.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000436#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Cash transfers stimulate sustainable livelihoods by providing start-up capital for microenterprises and agricultural investments, often creating an income multiplier effect where total income increases exceed the grant value.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000436#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The use of digital financial systems for grant distribution in South Africa has enabled private corporations to exploit recipients through predatory lending and automatic loan repayments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000436#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"From a macroeconomic perspective, a UBIG funded through progressive taxation can drive GDP growth and increase government revenue through increased aggregate demand and local economic stimulus.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000436#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["social protection","just transition","climate change"],"geography_discussed":["Namibia","Kenya","India","Ethiopia","United States","Zambia","Zimbabwe","Lesotho","Ghana","Malawi","Mexico","Rwanda","Brazil","United Kingdom"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["literature review","policy analysis","economic modelling review"]},{"id":"iisd-001366","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-001366","title":"Fossil-Fuel Subsidies and Climate Change","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2015","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/gsi/sites/default/files/FFS_Climate.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document argues that removing fossil-fuel subsidies is a critical lever for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and unlocking low-carbon energy pathways. It highlights that global emissions could decrease by 6% to 13% by 2050 through the phase-out of consumer subsidies, though these figures are likely underestimates as they exclude producer subsidies. The paper outlines how countries can incorporate FFSR into their INDCs, Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), and the 2015 UNFCCC agreement. It emphasizes that to maximize emission reductions, subsidy removal must be coupled with binding emission caps in OECD countries to prevent 'carbon leakage' and simultaneous government investment in low-carbon energy and transport infrastructure to enable fuel switching.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001366#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Global estimates suggest that phasing out consumer fossil-fuel subsidies could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by between 6 and 13 per cent by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001366#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current emission reduction estimates are likely underestimates because they primarily focus on consumer subsidies and typically exclude the impact of removing producer subsidies, which the GSI estimated at approximately US$100 billion globally in 2010.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001366#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The effectiveness of subsidy reform in reducing emissions is enhanced when coupled with a global climate policy agreement and binding emission caps in OECD countries, which prevents 'carbon leakage' where lower oil prices lead to increased consumption in non-reforming countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001366#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To maximize the transition to low-carbon energy, governments must reinvest the significant financial savings from subsidy reform into energy efficiency and sustainable transport infrastructure to increase price elasticity and enable consumers to switch to cleaner alternatives.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001366#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Fossil-fuel subsidies act as a form of negative carbon pricing; combining their removal with correct carbon taxation (accounting for social and environmental damages) could reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by 23 per cent based on 2010 data.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001366#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The document proposes several mechanisms for integrating FFSR into the UNFCCC process, including including emission estimates in INDCs, utilizing Technical Experts Meetings (TEMs), and developing FFSR as Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) to attract technical and financial support.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001366#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fossil fuel subsidy","greenhouse gas emissions","carbon price","energy transition","energy efficiency","carbon leakage"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India","Indonesia","Thailand","Russia","Saudi Arabia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","economic modelling review"]},{"id":"iisd-001879","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-001879","title":"Should We be Concerned about Competition between Food and Fuel?","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2012-04","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/gsi/sites/default/files/pb13_foodfuel.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines the 'food versus fuel' debate, specifically analyzing how consumption mandates like the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED) impact food prices. It notes that while intergovernmental organizations disagree on the exact percentage of price increases attributable to biofuels (ranging from 5% to 75%), there is a consensus that they play a role. The brief argues that the rigidity of these mandates and the rapid increase in production exacerbate price volatility. It recommends reducing the rigidity of consumption targets and implementing robust reporting requirements on the use of food crops as feedstocks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001879#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Intergovernmental organizations provide widely divergent estimates on the role of biofuels in the 2006–2008 food price spikes, with the World Bank attributing 70–75 per cent of the increase to biofuels, while the OECD estimates it at 5–16 per cent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001879#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The United States and the European Union are the dominant drivers of global biofuel demand, together accounting for 62 per cent of global biofuel consumption as of 2010.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001879#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Modelling suggests that biofuel programs in the EU and US will increase real world prices for vegetable oils by over 30 per cent and for wheat and corn by between 3 and 15 per cent between 2011 and 2016.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001879#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Global biofuel production saw a nearly six-fold increase between 2000 and 2009, rising from 0.19 million to 1.1 million barrels per day, which may have eroded food inventories and increased price volatility.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001879#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Biofuel consumption mandates create market conflict because the targets are fixed and non-responsive to price signals or production fluctuations, while agricultural supply cannot respond quickly due to natural crop production and harvesting cycles.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001879#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To mitigate negative impacts on food prices, the brief recommends adjusting mandated targets downward in response to forecasted supply shortfalls and utilizing the reporting mechanisms in the EU's Renewable Energy Directive to track the impact of food crop feedstocks on prices.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001879#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["biofuel","biodiesel","food security"],"geography_discussed":["Brazil"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","literature review","economic modelling review"]}]}