{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["economic modelling"]},"warnings":[]},"total":{"value":139,"relation":"eq"},"page":4,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=economic+modelling&page=4","next":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=economic+modelling&page=5","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"wmbco-000158","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wmbco-000158","title":"Maximising the benefits: Economic, employment and emissions impacts of green recovery stimulus in Europe","publisher":{"name":"We Mean Business Coalition","organization":"we-mean-business-coalition"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2020-10-19","source_url":"https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/blog/maximising-the-benefits-economic-employment-and-emissions-impacts-of-green-recovery-stimulus-in-europe/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report uses E3ME modelling to demonstrate that a Green Recovery Plan—incorporating investments in energy efficiency, grid upgrades, renewables, and electric vehicles—outperforms traditional stimulus packages by boosting GDP and employment while significantly reducing CO2 emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000158#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"A Green Recovery Plan in the EU is projected to save 2 million jobs over the next few years and reduce CO2 emissions by more than 15 per cent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000158#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Compared to a 'return to normal' approach focused on VAT reductions, the Green Recovery Plan is consistently more favourable in boosting GDP and employment, with significantly better outcomes projected for 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000158#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Green Recovery Plan achieves its goals through a combination of smaller VAT reductions and targeted public investments in energy efficiency, electricity grid upgrades, wind and solar subsidies, tree planting, and an electric-vehicle-only car scrappage scheme.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000158#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["green recovery","energy efficiency","electrical grid","wind power","solar energy","reforestation","electric vehicle","carbon dioxide emissions","climate finance","employment"],"geography_discussed":["United Kingdom","Poland","Germany","Spain"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling"]},{"id":"iejza-000418","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iejza-000418","title":"Rapid Country Assessment: South Africa","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Economic Justice","organization":"institute-for-economic-justice"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2020-08","source_url":"https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Rapid-country-assessment-South-Africa-the-impacts-from-a-COVID-19-shock-to-South-Africas-economy-and-labour-market.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report assesses the impact of COVID-19 on South Africa's economy, forecasting significant job losses and wage declines. Using a 10% contraction in final demand as a median scenario, it estimates 1.77 million jobs are at risk, with the most severe impacts falling on low-skilled, informal, and poverty-stricken workers. The analysis highlights that the service sector and agriculture are hardest hit due to their reliance on consumption spending. The authors argue that the government's R500 billion rescue package is insufficient and poorly implemented, recommending a net new expenditure of at least R500 billion, expanded social protection, and targeted support for the informal sector and primary industries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000418#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Based on a median 10 per cent shock to final demand, approximately 1.77 million jobs are at risk of being lost over the next 24 months, representing 10.8 per cent of total employment. If skilled workers are excluded from immediate risk, the figure is 1.485 million jobs (9.1 per cent of total employment).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000418#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The economic shock is expected to be significantly more severe than the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). While the GFC resulted in 1.12 million job losses, the COVID-19 GDP contraction is forecast to be several times larger, making it highly unlikely that job losses will be less than those of the GFC.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000418#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Job losses are heavily concentrated in the tertiary (service) sector and agriculture. Under a 10 per cent shock, the eight hardest-hit sub-sectors include wholesale and retail trade, community, social, and personal services, business activities, agriculture, construction, professional business services, transport and storage, and catering and accommodation, collectively accounting for 80 per cent of all jobs at risk.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000418#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Low-skilled and informal workers are disproportionately affected. 83.7 per cent of all jobs at risk are less-skilled employment, and 51.4 per cent fall into the lowest and 'basic' skill categories (which includes all informal sector work). Approximately 510,852 informal-sector jobs are at risk.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000418#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Workers in poverty face the highest risk of job loss. 11.6 per cent of those in working poverty (earning below R5,086 per month) are at risk, compared to 9.8 per cent of those above that line. Those in working poverty comprise 64.6 per cent of total job losses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000418#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Gender impacts are significant in specific sectors. While total job losses are distributed similarly by gender (40 per cent for women, 60 per cent for men), women are disproportionately affected in 'other community, social, and personal services' (including domestic work), which accounts for roughly one-quarter of all female job losses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000418#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The South African government's R500 billion rescue package is criticized for insufficient funding and poor implementation. Much of the budget consists of reallocated funds from existing expenditures rather than net new spending, with only R36 billion in net increase for non-interest spending in the current year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000418#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Temporary Employer/Employee Relief Scheme (TERS) faces implementation challenges, including long turnaround times, opacity in payment amounts, and the initial exclusion of non-registered workers. The report suggests increasing TERS funding and simplifying the application process via the South African Revenue Service.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000418#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["social protection","fiscal policy","agriculture"],"geography_discussed":["Gauteng","United States","Italy","France","United Kingdom"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","impact assessment","policy evaluation"]},{"id":"iejza-000320","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iejza-000320","title":"A FISCAL STIMULUS FOR SOUTH AFRICA","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Economic Justice","organization":"institute-for-economic-justice"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2020-06","source_url":"https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/A-fiscal-stimulus-for-South-Africa-Final-IEJ.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The paper contends that South Africa's current policy of austerity is economically destructive and proposes a R1 trillion fiscal stimulus over three years. It argues that the country has the fiscal space for expansion because its debt levels are comparable to emerging market peers and its productive capacity is underutilised. Using input-output modelling, the authors estimate an average fiscal multiplier of 1.68, suggesting that a stimulus of 10% of GDP (approximately R500 billion) could generate over R800 billion in economic expansion and nearly 3.5 million jobs. The proposed stimulus is guided by ten principles, including targeting high-multiplier sectors, reducing inequality, and ensuring environmental sustainability through a 'Green New Deal'. Financing is proposed through progressive taxation, rebuilding the capacity of the South African Revenue Service (SARS), leveraging Development Finance Institutions (DFIs), and reforming monetary policy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000320#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"South Africa's economy has experienced a significant downturn, with growth averaging 1.7% between 2011 and 2018 and reaching a decade low of 0.2% in 2019. Unemployment reached 29.1% in Q3 2019, with youth unemployment (15–24 years) at 58.2%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000320#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The authors argue that the government's austerity measures since 2014/15, intended to reduce debt, have been procyclical and harmful, leading to a collapse in public investment and real cuts to per capita social spending.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000320#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Fiscal space for a stimulus exists because South Africa's debt-to-GDP ratio is in line with emerging market peers and the majority of its debt is denominated in Rands (only 10.1% is in foreign currency).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000320#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The economy is capable of absorbing additional expenditure without causing undue inflation, as evidenced by falling inflation rates and the fact that factories are operating at approximately four-fifths capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000320#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Using a closed input-output model for 2018, the authors find an average fiscal multiplier of 1.68, meaning R1 billion in spending would grow the economy by R1.68 billion and create 6,900 jobs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000320#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The paper models four stimulus scenarios: a 10% of GDP stimulus (approx. R492.2 billion) is estimated to generate R826.9 billion in income and 3,396,180 new jobs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000320#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The authors propose a medium-term fiscal stimulus of R1 trillion (7% of 2019 GDP per annum) over three years, which they estimate would annually generate R580 billion in GDP growth and 2.4 million jobs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000320#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To finance the stimulus, the document recommends progressive tax increases, including taxing wealth, raising income tax on high earners, and closing corporate loopholes, alongside rebuilding the capacity of the South African Revenue Service (SARS).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000320#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The proposal includes a 'Green New Deal' focusing on green industrialisation and renewable energy technologies, particularly in coal mining areas like Mpumalanga, to transition away from fossil fuels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000320#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The authors suggest that investing in the care economy (childcare, elderly care, and health) would provide high employment multipliers and improve gender equity by reducing the burden of unpaid work on women.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000320#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fiscal policy","renewable energy","fossil fuel","climate change mitigation","Green New Deal","employment"],"geography_discussed":["Mpumalanga","United States","People's Republic of China","Portugal"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","policy proposal","comparative analysis"]},{"id":"wwf-000707","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wwf-000707","title":"GLOBAL FUTURES ASSESSING THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE TO SUPPORT POLICY-MAKING","publisher":{"name":"WWF International","organization":"wwf-international"},"document_type":"executive summary","language":"en","date_published":"2020-02","source_url":"https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/557/75p5cvk0ul_Summary_Report.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Global Futures project uses a new integrated environment-economy model to quantify the economic risks of biodiversity loss. Under a 'Business-as-Usual' scenario, the loss of six key ecosystem services is projected to reduce annual global GDP by 0.67% by 2050, totaling a cumulative loss of US$ 9.87 trillion. Conversely, a 'Global Conservation' scenario could result in a net annual gain of US$ 490 billion compared to the BAU scenario. The report highlights that low-income countries and coastal infrastructure in high-income nations are most vulnerable, and recommends a 'New Deal for Nature and People' including the protection of 30% of land and oceans.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000707#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Under a 'Business-as-Usual' (BAU) scenario, the reduced supply of six specific ecosystem services would cause annual global GDP to drop by 0.67% by 2050, representing an annual loss of US$ 479 billion and a total cumulative loss of US$ 9.87 trillion between 2011 and 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000707#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A 'Global Conservation' (GC) scenario, characterized by sustainable development and the safeguarding of biodiversity-rich areas, would result in annual global GDP being 0.02% higher (US$ 11 billion) by 2050 than a baseline of no change, creating an annual net gain of US$ 490 billion compared to the BAU scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000707#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The loss of nature is expected to drive up prices for key agricultural commodities by 2050 under the BAU scenario, with projected increases for timber (+8%), cotton (+6%), oil seeds (+4%), and fruit and vegetables (+3%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000707#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic impacts are distributed unevenly; low and middle-income countries, particularly in central Asia, South America, and eastern and western Africa, would bear the highest costs. Conversely, China would see a significant annual GDP increase of US$ 43.1 billion under the GC scenario due to its reliance on pollinator-dependent oil crops.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000707#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Loss of coastal protection services (e.g., mangroves and coral reefs) is the most significant risk to global GDP, potentially reducing annual global GDP by 0.46% (US$ 327 billion) by 2050 under the BAU scenario, with high-income countries like the USA, Japan, and the UK facing substantial losses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000707#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report recommends a 'New Deal for Nature and People' to reverse biodiversity loss by 2030, specifically advocating that at least 30% of all land, inland waters, and oceans be protected in managed networks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000707#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["ecosystem service","biodiversity loss","climate change","natural capital","coastal management","carbon sequestration","sustainable development","nature-based solutions","land-use planning","food security"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","Asia","South America","United States","Japan","Australia","United Kingdom","People's Republic of China","Togo","Ivory Coast","Sri Lanka","Uruguay","Guinea"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","scenario analysis","impact assessment"]},{"id":"greenca-000023","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/greenca-000023","title":"Energy Security in South Africa: the business case for energy storage","publisher":{"name":"GreenCape","organization":"greencape"},"document_type":"briefing","language":"en","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/20200330_Industry-Brief_Energy-Storage-3.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines the South African energy storage market, highlighting the shift toward hybrid solar PV and battery systems to mitigate the economic impact of record load shedding. It identifies Lithium-ion (specifically Lithium Iron Phosphate) and Lead Acid as the dominant technologies, while noting that Vanadium Redox Flow and Hydrogen storage face barriers due to limited market penetration and the need for specific use-case analysis. The brief provides cost benchmarks for Li-ion systems and models a hybrid solar PV and storage scenario where the return on investment is estimated at 8-12 years, noting that this period could be reduced if business continuity benefits are factored in.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greenca-000023#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"South Africa experienced its worst year of load shedding in 2019, totaling 1,352 GWh and 530 hours, with Stage 6 implemented. This crisis is expected to persist for 3-5 years without decisive action.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greenca-000023#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Lithium-ion and Lead Acid batteries are the leading technologies in the South African back-up power market. Within the Li-ion category, Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePO.4) is the most dominant due to its operational stability, defined performance ratings, and low manufacturing costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greenca-000023#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant market opportunity for hybrid solar PV and storage; if 25% of new solar PV installations include storage, the potential annual market could reach approximately 200MWh, valued at roughly R2 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greenca-000023#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For a modelled 100kWp solar PV system, adding Li-ion energy storage doubles the capital cost and extends the payback period to 8-12 years, compared to 4-7 years for solar PV alone. However, this payback period may be significantly reduced when accounting for the avoidance of business operation losses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greenca-000023#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Certain technologies, specifically Hydrogen storage and Vanadium redox flow batteries, have failed to achieve significant market penetration because they require purpose-built systems and specific use-case feasibility analyses, typically for large capital utility-scale applications.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greenca-000023#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy storage","photovoltaics","energy security"],"geography_discussed":["Lephalale","Limpopo","Mossel Bay"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["market analysis","economic modelling","technology assessment"]},{"id":"iisd-001167","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-001167","title":"Ending Hunger, Increasing Incomes, and Protecting the Climate: What would it cost donors?","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://ceres2030.iisd.org//wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ceres2030-what-would-it-cost_.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that donors must provide an additional USD 14 billion per year, and low- and middle-income countries must provide USD 19 billion per year, to achieve SDG 2 targets by 2030 while respecting climate commitments. This investment would prevent 490 million people from experiencing hunger and double the incomes of 545 million small-scale producers. The authors emphasize that Africa has the greatest need for these resources and that a balanced portfolio of interventions—spanning social protection, on-farm productivity, and market access—is essential for success.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001167#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"To end hunger and double the incomes of small-scale producers while adhering to Paris Agreement greenhouse gas emission limits, donors must contribute an additional USD 14 billion per year until 2030. This represents a doubling of current donor spending, which averages USD 12 billion per year on food security and nutrition.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001167#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Official development assistance (ODA) alone is insufficient; low- and middle-income countries must provide an additional average of USD 19 billion per year through increased taxation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001167#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The combined additional public spending of USD 33 billion per year is estimated to prevent 490 million people from experiencing hunger and double the incomes of 545 million small-scale producers on average. Furthermore, this public investment is expected to trigger an average of USD 52 billion in annual private investment in primary and processed food sectors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001167#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa is the region with the most significant need for additional resources, as it is projected to have the highest concentration of the global undernourished population by 2030. Two-thirds of the required additional public spending is needed in Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001167#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Achieving the targets requires a balanced portfolio of 14 policy instruments across three categories: 'empower the excluded' (e.g., social safety nets, vocational training), 'on the farm' (e.g., R&D, irrigation, fertilizer subsidies), and 'food on the move' (e.g., roads, storage).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001167#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The timing of spending is critical; early investment in long-term interventions like research and development (R&D) provides a higher payoff and prevents the increase of total monetary costs associated with delays.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001167#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","climate change","food system","Paris Agreement","Nationally Determined Contributions","agroforestry","climate resilience","biodiversity loss"],"geography_discussed":["Bangladesh","Ethiopia","Ghana","Guatemala","Malawi","Nigeria","Rwanda","Senegal","Tanzania","Uganda","Zambia","South Asia","South America"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","cost estimation","policy analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-002637","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002637","title":"Sustainable Solutions to End Hunger","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://ceres2030.iisd.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ceres2030-nature-portfolio-.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Ceres2030 project identifies a funding gap of USD 33 billion per year to achieve SDG 2 targets, with USD 14 billion coming from donors and USD 19 billion from recipient countries. The report emphasizes that most existing agricultural research ignores the needs of smallholders, who represent over 80% of the world's farms. Key recommendations include investing in extension services, climate-resilient crops, social protection, and supporting small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the value chain. The project utilizes a complex general equilibrium model and machine-learning-assisted evidence synthesis to identify a portfolio of 14 policy instruments across three categories: empowering the excluded, on-farm interventions, and food on the move.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002637#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"To end hunger and double the incomes of small-scale producers in low- and middle-income countries by 2030, an additional USD 33 billion per year is needed, consisting of USD 14 billion from donors and USD 19 billion from the countries themselves through increased taxation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002637#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The current body of agricultural research is largely irrelevant to smallholder farmers; more than 95% of assessed studies were not relevant to the needs of smallholders and their families, and less than 2% of the available evidence base is pertinent to the questions donors typically investigate, such as intervention costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002637#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Small-scale producers represent over 80% of the world's farms, and those with less than 2 hectares produce between 30% and 34% of the global food supply.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002637#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The adoption of climate-resilient crops is most strongly determined by the availability and effectiveness of extension services, followed by the education level of the household head and access to inputs like seeds and fertilizers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002637#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Membership in farmers' organizations is associated with positive income effects in 57% of reviewed cases, primarily by strengthening producers' market power.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002637#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the value chain, particularly in Africa, are correlated with higher technology adoption and productivity among small-scale producers by providing complementary services such as credit, training, and market links.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002637#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Post-harvest loss reduction is dominated by storage technology research, with 83% of studies focusing on this area, while there is a critical lack of evidence on training, finance, policy, and infrastructure interventions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002637#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Social protection programs are most effective when they create a bridge to productive employment and remove barriers to accessing markets, education, and credit.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002637#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In water-scarce regions of low- and middle-income countries, less than 37.2% of small-scale farms are irrigated, compared to 43.2% of non-small-scale farms.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002637#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The project's economic model indicates that the additional public spending of USD 33 billion per year will prevent 490 million people from experiencing hunger and double the incomes of 545 million producers and their families on average.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002637#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["sustainable agriculture","climate finance","greenhouse gas emissions","water scarcity","agroforestry","smallholder","social protection","Paris Agreement"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","South Asia","India","Ethiopia","Kenya","Uganda","Ghana","Tanzania","Burkina Faso"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","evidence synthesis","scoping review","systematic review","machine learning"]},{"id":"iisd-002638","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002638","title":"Ceres2030: Nachhaltige Lösungen zur Beendigung des Hungers","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"executive summary","language":"de","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://ceres2030.iisd.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ceres2030_de-summary-report.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Ceres2030 report argues that ending global hunger is possible through an integrated combination of public investments totaling 33 billion USD per year. The project identifies ten key recommendations across three categories: enabling inclusion, on-farm improvements, and post-harvest management. It emphasizes that smallholders are critical to global food security but are often excluded from economic growth and technological advancement. The report highlights a significant funding gap, noting that donor contributions must nearly double to 26 billion USD annually, supplemented by 19 billion USD in domestic spending from recipient countries, with Africa identified as the region with the highest need.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002638#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"To end hunger and double smallholder incomes by 2030 while adhering to Paris Agreement greenhouse gas emission targets, an additional 33 billion USD in annual public spending is required. This is split between an average of 14 billion USD from donors and 19 billion USD from low- and middle-income countries via increased tax revenue.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002638#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The project identifies ten key recommendations for action. In the 'Enabling Inclusion' category, it recommends facilitating membership in farmers' associations, investing in integrated vocational education for rural youth, and expanding social safety nets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002638#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"On-farm recommendations focus on making sustainable practices economically viable, investing in extension services (especially for women) linked to R&D, supporting the adoption of climate-resilient crops, increasing research on water-scarce areas, and improving livestock feed quality.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002638#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Post-harvest recommendations include reducing losses by expanding measures beyond grain storage to include other crops and value chain segments, and investing in infrastructure and technical support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002638#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa is the region with the greatest need for additional funding, as it is expected that over half of the world's undernourished population will be concentrated on the continent by 2030. Two-thirds of the additional public spending are required in Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002638#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report finds that agricultural measures are most effective when they are integrated combinations rather than isolated improvements, and when they target complex goals such as marketability rather than just resilience.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002638#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a critical lack of high-quality, relevant evidence for policymakers; less than 2% of the analyzed evidence base directly addressed the specific questions typically investigated by donors, such as the cost of a measure.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002638#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Gender-disaggregated data in agriculture and rural development remains sparse. Only about 10% of the analyzed articles considered gender differences in the outcomes of measures, and only 12% of studies on SMEs addressed the gender issue.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002638#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","sustainable agriculture","water scarcity","agroforestry","climate finance","Paris Agreement"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","South Asia","Germany","Rwanda","United States","Indonesia","India"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","evidence synthesis","policy recommendation"]},{"id":"iisd-002639","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002639","title":"Ceres2030: Sustainable Solutions to End Hunger","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"executive summary","language":"en","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://ceres2030.iisd.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ceres2030_en-summary-report.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Ceres2030 report argues that ending global hunger is possible through an integrated portfolio of agricultural interventions and an additional annual public investment of USD 33 billion. Using AI-driven evidence synthesis and complex economic modelling, the study identifies ten key recommendations across three categories: empowering the excluded, on-farm improvements, and value chain logistics. The report emphasizes that small-scale producers, who provide a significant portion of the global food supply, are disproportionately vulnerable to the climate crisis and economic exclusion. It concludes that donor countries must double their current annual spending on food security to USD 26 billion, while low- and middle-income countries must provide an additional USD 19 billion per year, with a particular focus on Africa, where the greatest need for resources exists.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002639#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"To end hunger and double the incomes of small-scale producers in low- and middle-income countries by 2030 while meeting Paris Agreement emissions targets, an additional USD 33 billion in public spending is needed annually. This consists of an average of USD 14 billion from donors and USD 19 billion from low- and middle-income countries through increased taxation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002639#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The funding gap is most acute in Africa, which requires two-thirds of the additional public spending to achieve the targets, as more than half of the global undernourished population is expected to be concentrated there by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002639#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Membership in farmers organizations is a key driver of income growth; in a review of 24 countries, primarily in Africa and India, such membership was associated with positive income effects in 57% of cases, primarily by strengthening producers market power.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002639#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The adoption of climate-resilient crops is most successful when supported by inclusive extension services, access to inputs, and the commercial viability of the crop varieties.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002639#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the value chain, particularly in Africa, are correlated with higher technology adoption and productivity because they provide integrated 'wraparound' services such as credit, training, and market links.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002639#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Post-harvest losses for cereals and pulses can be kept below 2% to 5% through the use of airtight containers, hermetic bags, and improved handling practices like proper drying and sorting.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002639#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agricultural interventions are most effective when they target a population that already meets a minimum threshold of income, education, and access to infrastructure and networks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002639#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a critical lack of high-quality, cost-specific research for policy-makers; less than 2% of the available evidence base is pertinent to the specific questions donors typically investigate, such as the cost of an intervention.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002639#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Gender-disaggregated data in agriculture is severely lacking, with only about 10% of reviewed papers considering gender differences in outcomes, despite the fact that two-thirds of livestock keepers in low- and middle-income countries are female.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002639#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","climate finance","sustainable agriculture","Post-harvest losses","agroforestry","water scarcity","Paris Agreement"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","South Asia","India"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","evidence synthesis","policy recommendation"]},{"id":"iisd-002640","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002640","title":"Ceres2030: Soluciones sostenibles para poner fin al hambre","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"executive summary","language":"es","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://ceres2030.iisd.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ceres2030_es_launch-summary-report.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Ceres2030 identifies a funding gap of 33 billion USD per year to eradicate hunger and double the incomes of 545 million small-scale producers by 2030. The project emphasizes integrated policy portfolios over isolated interventions, highlighting the role of farmers' organizations, climate-resilient crops, and SMEs in the value chain. It specifically notes that Africa requires two-thirds of the additional public spending to meet these goals.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002640#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"To end hunger and double small-scale producer incomes by 2030 while adhering to Paris Agreement emissions targets, an additional 33 billion USD is needed annually. This is split between 14 billion USD from donors and 19 billion USD from low- and middle-income countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002640#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The proposed public investment is estimated to prevent 490 million people from going hungry and double the average income of 545 million producers and their families, while stimulating 52 billion USD in annual private investment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002640#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa is the region with the highest need for additional resources, requiring two-thirds of the total additional public spending to achieve the 2030 goals.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002640#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Membership in farmers' organizations is strongly linked to increased income, with positive effects observed in 57% of reviewed cases across 24 countries, primarily in Africa and India.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002640#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The adoption of climate-resilient crops is most effectively driven by the availability and quality of extension services, as well as the commercial viability of the crops.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002640#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are critical for technological adoption and productivity, particularly in Africa, by providing integrated services such as credit, training, and market links.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002640#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Post-harvest losses can be significantly reduced through targeted interventions: airtight containers keep losses below 2% for maize, rice, and sorghum, while improved handling and cold storage reduce losses for fruits and vegetables.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002640#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a critical lack of high-quality, gender-disaggregated data in agriculture; only about 10% of the reviewed documentation considered gender differences in intervention outcomes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002640#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A significant evidence gap exists for policymakers, with less than 2% of available research being directly relevant to the specific questions donors typically ask, such as the exact cost of an intervention.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002640#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","sustainable agriculture","water scarcity","agroforestry","climate finance","Paris Agreement","biodiversity loss"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","India","South Asia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","evidence synthesis","policy recommendation"]},{"id":"chanmar-000102","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/chanmar-000102","title":"Corn Fakes","publisher":{"name":"Changing Markets Foundation","organization":"changing-markets-foundation"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2019-11","source_url":"https://changingmarkets.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/CORN-FAKES-ENG-FINAL.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that Kellogg's has prioritised short-term cost savings over public health in Mexico by reducing the fortification of its cereals. By modelling the health impacts of removing iron, calcium, and folic acid, the authors estimate that the company saved approximately $85 million over five years, while the minimum cumulative social cost to Mexico exceeded $250 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"chanmar-000102#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Kellogg's reduced or removed a significant portion of micronutrients from its most popular cereal brands in Mexico between 2013 and 2019, with the largest decreases seen in vitamins C, B3, and B9.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"chanmar-000102#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The removal of three key micronutrients (iron, calcium, and folic acid) resulted in an estimated cost-saving for Kellogg's of nearly $17 million per year, totaling approximately $85 million over five years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"chanmar-000102#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The minimum cumulative social cost to Mexico due to the removal of iron, calcium, and folic acid is estimated at over $250 million over five years, meaning every dollar saved by Kellogg's destroys at least $3 in value to Mexican society.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"chanmar-000102#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The removal of iron is associated with long-term social costs for two-year-old children, including cognitive loss, behavioural problems, and depression, with a total annual loss from iron-deficient anaemia estimated at $13 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"chanmar-000102#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Folate saw the largest average decrease (36 percentage points) across Kellogg's brands, increasing risks of neural tube defects (NTDs) and low birth weight (LBW) in newborns, as well as anaemia in toddlers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"chanmar-000102#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report notes that Kellogg's cost savings from defortification are small compared to its 2018 advertising spend of $752 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"chanmar-000102#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["public health"],"geography_discussed":["World","United States","Brazil","Venezuela","People's Republic of China","Chile"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","comparative analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-001097","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-001097","title":"Beyond Fossil Fuels: Fiscal transition in BRICS","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2019-11","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/beyond-fossil-fuels-brics.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes the dependence of BRICS governments on fossil fuel revenues and the risks posed by the clean energy transition, including asset stranding and revenue loss. It provides 2017 data on revenues and subsidies, highlighting Russia's high fiscal exposure and the potential for 'fossil fuel to clean energy subsidy swaps' to fund a just transition.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001097#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"In 2017, Russia had the highest dependence on fossil fuel revenues among BRICS, with combined production and consumption revenues accounting for 23.6 per cent of general government revenue and 8 per cent of GDP.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001097#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Other BRICS countries showed lower but significant fiscal reliance on fossil fuels in 2017: India's revenues were 17.8 per cent of general government revenue (3.7 per cent of GDP), while Brazil and South Africa both stood at 6.8 per cent (approximately 2 per cent of GDP), and China at 4.2 per cent (1.2 per cent of GDP).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001097#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Fossil fuel subsidies in BRICS are primarily used to generate export revenue and GDP growth (especially in Russia and Brazil) or to maintain low domestic prices for households.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001097#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The clean energy transition risks the stranding of fossil fuel assets, with the highest risk concentrated in government-owned entities and state-owned enterprises (SOEs), particularly in Russia.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001097#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"India has already experienced significant asset stranding, with approximately 40 GW of coal-fired power plant capacity identified as 'non-performing' by the end of 2018, representing 21 per cent of its total installed capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001097#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant gap between current fossil fuel taxation and the cost of their negative externalities; the IMF estimates that fossil fuel consumption is considerably undertaxed across all BRICS countries, with the gap in Russia exceeding the entire general government budget.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001097#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report recommends a 'fossil fuel to clean energy subsidy swap,' where governments redirect support from fossil fuels toward clean energy and use carbon pricing as a temporary bridge to fund transition costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001097#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To mitigate the social impacts of the transition, the report emphasizes 'just transitions' through targeted support like cash transfers and reskilling, citing China's CNY 100 billion Industrial Special Fund for coal area employment restructuring.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001097#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy transition","fossil fuel subsidy","carbon price","stranded asset","just transition","renewable energy","energy efficiency","greenhouse gas emissions"],"geography_discussed":["Indonesia","Rio de Janeiro","Inner Mongolia","Shanxi","Shaanxi"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["fiscal analysis","policy assessment","economic modelling"]},{"id":"ember-000187","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ember-000187","title":"The cash cow has stopped giving: Are Germany’s lignite plants now worthless?","publisher":{"name":"Ember","organization":"ember"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2019-07","source_url":"https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/2019-Cash-Cow-report.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that German lignite plants became significantly unprofitable in the first half of 2019, with the entire fleet losing €664 million. Old units (pre-1990) were hardest hit, with gross profits falling 62% to €188 million. The analysis suggests that 24/7 baseload operation is no longer economic and predicts a €1.8 billion loss for old units between 2020 and 2022. Consequently, the author recommends that the German government push for faster closures, reject excessive compensation claims, and implement a minimum carbon price to prevent future profitability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000187#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The gross profit of the German lignite fleet decreased by 54% in the first half of 2019, dropping from €1109 million in the first half of 2018 to €513 million. Old lignite units built before 1990 experienced a more severe decline of 62%, with profits falling from €500 million to €188 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000187#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the first half of 2019, the German lignite fleet recorded a total loss of €664 million, compared to a loss of €68 million in the first half of 2018. No single lignite unit was able to cover its full fixed costs during this period; old units lost €476 million and new units (post-1990) lost €188 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000187#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Lignite plants have ceased to operate as 24/7 baseload power. Between March and June 2019, 49% of hours were uneconomic for old lignite plants, and 27% of hours were uneconomic for new lignite plants.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000187#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Medium-term projections for 2020-2022 indicate that old lignite units will remain loss-making, with an estimated loss of €1.8 billion. New lignite plants are expected to roughly break even, covering approximately 112% of their full fixed costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000187#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report recommends that policymakers accelerate the closure of lignite plants and resist high compensation claims. It suggests the German government establish a minimum carbon price of at least €30/tonne to ensure lignite does not return to profitability and to potentially move the phase-out date closer to 2030 from 2038.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000187#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Coal phase-out","carbon price","electricity price","renewable energy","wind power","solar energy","natural gas","air quality","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["European Union","Ireland","France","United Kingdom","Spain","Denmark","Italy","Netherlands","Portugal","Poland","Czech Republic"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","policy recommendation"]},{"id":"sei-000408","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000408","title":"Climate Impacts on Capital Accumulation in Barbados","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2019-06-07","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-impacts-on-capital-accumulation-in-barbados/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The paper presents a model for small island developing states (SIDS) that examines the relationship between the anticipation of extreme climate events and the resulting damage to commercial capital stocks, specifically applying this model to tropical storm damage in Barbados.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000408#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The authors developed a model for small island developing states that focuses on the loss of commercial capital stocks, including equipment and buildings, caused by extreme climate events, incorporating engineering literature to account for how anticipation of climate change affects the balance between current adaptation spending and future losses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000408#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"When applied to tropical storm damage in Barbados, the model demonstrates that anticipatory behavior alters the level of infrastructure damage for a given degree of climate change, meaning that damage is a function of both climate variables and human behavior.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000408#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["tropical cyclone"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling"]},{"id":"sei-001617","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001617","title":"Testing transitions: A new model to explore how producer- and consumer-led sustainability strategies could affect macroeconomic stability","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"executive summary","language":"en","date_published":"2019-03","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/sei-2019-p2cs-summary-economic-model.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Stockholm Environment Institute has developed a new macroeconomic model to test how different sustainability strategies affect economic stability. Unlike traditional models, this version assumes people act based on past experience rather than optimal future knowledge. Initial experiments show that 'downshifting' (reducing working hours/workforce participation) can slow GDP growth and consumption without causing instability, whereas simply reducing consumption levels while maintaining the workforce can lead to recession and economic instability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001617#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The model's initial experiments indicate that voluntary 'downshifting'—where individuals reduce working hours or leave the workforce—can temporarily stop GDP growth and the growth of environmentally damaging consumption in a high-income capitalist economy without causing involuntary job loss or instability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001617#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Reducing consumption levels without a corresponding reduction in workforce participation can trigger economic instability, resulting in a classic recession characterized by lower business returns, reduced investment, and falling wages.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001617#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The developed model differs from common economic models by utilizing post-Keynesian theory to recreate realistic business cycles, including deep slumps and persistent underemployment, and by assuming that people anticipate the future using rules based on past experience rather than optimal choices.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001617#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["sustainable consumption","planetary boundary"],"geography_discussed":["United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","scenario-building"]},{"id":"newclim-000268","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/newclim-000268","title":"Operationalising an overall mitigation in global emissions under Article 6","publisher":{"name":"NewClimate Institute","organization":"newclimate-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2018-11-21","source_url":"http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/operationalising-an-overall-mitigation-in-global-emissions-under-article-6","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report evaluates mechanisms to ensure that international carbon market credits under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement result in a net reduction of global emissions. It identifies 'automatic cancellation' and 'discounting' as the only options that meet the necessary criteria for overall mitigation, recommending 'automatic cancellation' due to its ease of implementation and precedent in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Analysis of 18 scenarios suggests that while costs for credit buyers may increase, the overall mitigation principle provides various benefits for transferring countries across a broad range of rates.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000268#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"To achieve overall mitigation, three criteria must be met: the portion of emission reductions used for overall mitigation must be quantified, accounting provisions must prevent this portion from being used by any country toward their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and the implementation approach must be mandatory for Parties.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000268#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Among the options in the negotiation text, only 'automatic cancellation' and 'discounting' satisfy all three criteria for overall mitigation. Options such as 'limiting the crediting period' and 'conservative baselines' fail because they do not guarantee that non-credited reductions are excluded from a Party's NDC achievement. The report recommends 'automatic cancellation' because it can be managed by the mechanism's supervising body and has a precedent in the CDM.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000268#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"An assessment of 18 different scenarios using a simplified model of supply and demand curves indicates that implementing overall mitigation can provide various benefits, including for transferring countries, despite causing moderate increases in costs for credit buyers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000268#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Paris Agreement","Nationally Determined Contributions","clean development mechanism"],"geography_discussed":["Saint Lucia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","economic modelling"]},{"id":"newclim-000057","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/newclim-000057","title":"Tunisia: Derisking Renewable Energy Investment","publisher":{"name":"NewClimate Institute","organization":"newclimate-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2018-06-26","source_url":"http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/tunisia-derisking-renewable-energy-investment-2018","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study identifies that high financing costs in Tunisia, driven by power market, counterparty, and political risks, inflate the cost of renewable energy. By implementing targeted public derisking measures, Tunisia could significantly lower generation costs for wind and solar PV, catalyzing over EUR 1.6 billion in private investment and reducing carbon emissions by 32.2 million tonnes of CO2 over 20 years. The analysis concludes that the economic savings from lower capital costs outweigh the public expenditure required for these instruments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000057#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Tunisia's renewable energy investment environment is marked by high financing costs compared to countries like Germany; specifically, the cost of equity is 17% and the cost of debt is 8%, whereas in Germany they are 7% and 3% respectively.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000057#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Three primary risk categories are identified as the main drivers of increased financing costs: political risk, counterparty risk (the reliability of the electricity buyer), and power market risk (related to regulation and electricity sale mechanisms).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000057#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For wind energy, a public derisking package costing EUR 104 million by 2030 could catalyze EUR 1.07 billion in private investment, reduce generation costs from EUR 7.2 cents to EUR 5.8 cents per kWh, and save EUR 308 million over 20 years while reducing CO2 emissions by 21.6 million tonnes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000057#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For solar PV, public derisking measures costing EUR 54 million by 2030 could catalyze EUR 0.53 billion in private investment, lower generation costs from EUR 7.1 cents to EUR 5.6 cents per kWh, and generate EUR 149 million in savings over 20 years, reducing CO2 emissions by 10.6 million tonnes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000057#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Tunisian Solar Plan (TSP) aims for the private sector to install 835 MW of solar PV and 940 MW of wind power by 2030 to achieve a 30% share of renewable energy in the power mix.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000057#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","photovoltaics","wind power","climate finance","Paris Agreement","carbon dioxide emissions"],"geography_discussed":["Germany"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","risk assessment"]},{"id":"cer-001092","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cer-001092","title":"RELEVANT INFORMATION CONCERNING THE COAL IPPS – A STUDY BY THE ENERGY RESEARCH CENTRE","publisher":{"name":"Centre for Environmental Rights","organization":"centre-for-environmental-rights"},"document_type":"statement","language":"en","date_published":"2018-06-07","source_url":"https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/LAC-letter-to-PCEA-re-ERC-report_7-June-2018.pdf?x21779","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Life After Coal Campaign submitted a letter to the Portfolio Committee on Environmental Affairs highlighting findings from an Energy Research Centre (ERC) report. The report concludes that the proposed Thabametsi (557MW) and Khanyisa (300MW) coal-fired power stations are unnecessary for meeting medium-term electricity demand and would increase system costs by R19.68 billion compared to a least-cost energy system. The campaign argues that these projects would increase greenhouse gas emissions by 205.7Mt CO2eq over 30 years, undermining South Africa's Paris Agreement commitments and the Energy Efficiency Strategy to 2050. Furthermore, the document asserts that these plants would put pressure on Eskom, potentially accelerating a 'utility death spiral' and risking the broader economy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001092#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The proposed Thabametsi and Khanyisa coal-fired power stations are not required to meet South Africa's medium-term electricity demand because alternatives such as solar PV, wind, and flexible gas generation are more economical. Their inclusion would cost the country an additional R19.68 billion compared to a least-cost energy system.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001092#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The coal IPPs would increase greenhouse gas emissions by 205.7Mt CO2eq over the 30-year duration of the power purchase agreements. This increase would negate the savings from the Energy Efficiency Strategy to 2050 and frustrate South Africa's commitments under the Paris Agreement.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001092#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Building new coal plants during a period of low demand increases pressure on Eskom by reducing the output of its existing fleet, which could accelerate a 'utility death spiral' and endanger the South African economy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001092#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["coal-fired power station","renewable energy","greenhouse gas emissions","Paris Agreement","energy efficiency","climate finance","just transition","carbon tax"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","economic modelling"]},{"id":"geconco-000111","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/geconco-000111","title":"The Green Economy Barometer 2018 Mongolia","publisher":{"name":"Green Economy Coalition","organization":"green-economy-coalition"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2018-05","source_url":"https://www.greeneconomycoalition.org/assets/reports/Barometers-2018/Mongolia-GE-Barometer-2018-Final-WEB.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The 2018 Green Economy Barometer for Mongolia highlights a significant gap between the country's legislative commitments and actual implementation. While the government has adopted the National Green Development Policy and Sustainable Development Vision 2030, Mongolia ranked 79th out of 80 countries in the 2016 Global Green Economy Index. The report argues that investing 4% of GDP into green development could reduce poverty to 10% and cut greenhouse gas emissions by 17% by 2030. Current challenges include severe air pollution in Ulaanbaatar, land degradation affecting 77.8% of land, and a precarious economic dependence on volatile mineral exports.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"geconco-000111#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Investing 4% of GDP in green development is projected to result in a 5.23% increase in employment by 2030, a reduction of the poverty rate to 10% (from 21.6% in 2014), and a 17% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"geconco-000111#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Mongolia's performance in the 2016 Global Green Economy Index was very low, ranking 79th out of 80 countries, indicating a disconnect between official government narratives and tangible implementation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"geconco-000111#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ulaanbaatar faces severe air pollution, with PM 2.5 levels averaging 75, which is substantially higher than WHO standards; this is largely driven by the burning of coal and waste in ger districts due to a lack of central heating and infrastructure.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"geconco-000111#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Environmental degradation is widespread, with a desertification atlas from the Ministry of Environment and Green Development showing that 77.8% of land has been affected by desertification to some degree.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"geconco-000111#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Mongolian financial sector shows limited support for the green transition, though some progress exists, such as the Green Climate Fund transferring USD 20 million to XacBank for low-carbon SME initiatives and the establishment of the Mongolian Green Climate Fund.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"geconco-000111#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"As of the second quarter of 2016, there were 112,300 green jobs in Mongolia, representing 9.9% of all jobs, with the highest concentration in education (30.3%) and manufacturing (15.9%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"geconco-000111#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Mongolia's progress toward the UN Sustainable Development Goals is close to the East and South Asian regional average, but 8 of the 17 goals are classified as 'red' priorities, specifically SDGs 2 (zero hunger), 7 (affordable and clean energy), and 9 (industry, innovation and infrastructure).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"geconco-000111#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["green economy","climate finance","green job","air pollution","desertification","water scarcity","renewable energy","Sustainable Development Goals","greenhouse gas emissions","economic diversity","land degradation"],"geography_discussed":["Ulaanbaatar","Orkhon Province","Gobi Desert"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","policy assessment","indicator analysis"]},{"id":"sei-002232","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002232","title":"Confronting carbon lock-in: Canada’s oil sands","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"briefing","language":"en","date_published":"2018-05","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/confronting-carbon-lock-canadas-oil-sands.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document argues that existing Canadian oil sands projects are 'locked in' because their low operating costs make them resilient to oil price drops. This resilience may lead to a global oversupply of oil, which slows the transition to low-carbon energy outside Canada. The author estimates that limiting Canadian oil production to current levels (1.5 billion barrels annually) instead of following projected growth to 2.1 billion barrels by 2030 could avoid 50 to 150 million tonnes of CO2 globally. The brief suggests that managing oil production levels could have a climate impact comparable to Canada's domestic sectoral emission reductions under the Pan-Canadian Framework.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002232#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Most major existing oil sands projects in Canada are 'locked in' because they only need to cover operating costs to remain viable, making them resilient to oil price fluctuations below USD 50 per barrel.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002232#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The continued production and expansion of the oil sands may create a global oversupply of oil, which would drive down prices and hinder the low-carbon transition in other countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002232#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Limiting Canadian oil production to 1.5 billion barrels annually by 2030, rather than allowing it to reach the National Energy Board's projected 2.1 billion barrels, could reduce global emissions by 50 to 150 million tonnes of CO2.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002232#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"If Canada were to return its oil production to 2005 levels (0.9 billion barrels) by 2030, the estimated global avoidance of CO2 would increase to between 94 and 280 million tonnes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002232#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The potential global CO2 reductions from limiting Canadian oil production are of a similar scale to the total domestic emission reductions (175 million t CO2e) targeted by Canada's Pan-Canadian Framework for 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002232#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Oil sands production is particularly emissions-intensive, contributing 72 million t CO2e of the Canadian oil and gas sector's 180 million t CO2e total annual emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002232#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["oil sands","Carbon lock-in","greenhouse gas emissions","fossil fuel subsidy","Paris Agreement","energy transition"],"geography_discussed":["Middle East","United States","Russia","Saskatchewan","British Columbia","Newfoundland","Quebec"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","policy analysis"]}]}