{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["economic modelling"]},"warnings":[]},"total":{"value":139,"relation":"eq"},"page":2,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=economic+modelling&page=2","next":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=economic+modelling&page=3","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"pari-000087","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/pari-000087","title":"Restructuring Free Basic Services to Support Equitable Development","publisher":{"name":"Public Affairs Research Institute","organization":"public-affairs-research-institute"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2025-07","source_url":"https://pari.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/20250801_PolicyBrief_FreeBasicServices_Ledger.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The policy brief argues that current Free Basic Services (FBS) in South Africa provide only a 'survival' level of access that fails to lift households out of poverty. It proposes increasing free electricity to 150kWh and water to 8kl per month for households earning below the minimum wage, while shifting administration from municipalities to a social grant system (SASSA) to reduce exclusion and administrative inefficiency.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000087#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Current free basic service levels—50kWh of electricity and 6kl of water per month—are considered 'survival' levels that support only the lowest standard of living and do not enable the economic activities necessary to escape poverty.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000087#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A 'developmental' level of access, which supports nutrition, health, and small-scale economic activity, is estimated at 350kWh of electricity and 13.2kl of water per month for a household of four.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000087#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For 40% of the population living below the lower bound poverty line, developmental levels of services are unaffordable at current tariffs, as paying for them would require sacrificing basic food and nutrition.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000087#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The existing FBS implementation is failing due to municipal inefficiencies; while 11 million households are funded in the national budget, only approximately 2.5 million receive all the intended services.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000087#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The author proposes capping FBS beneficiaries at 7.5 million households (those below the minimum wage income level of R4,744 per month) to allow for an increase in the quantum of services provided to the poorest.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000087#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To improve delivery and equity, the document recommends replacing municipal indigent registers with a social grant administered by an independent agency, likely SASSA, where payments to municipalities are conditional on proof of service delivery.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000087#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The proposed restructuring—increasing FBE to 150kWh and FBW to 8kl for 7.5 million households—would cost the national fiscus an estimated additional R6.5 billion per annum.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000087#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["poverty reduction","renewable energy","energy access"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","economic modelling"]},{"id":"iisd-000943","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-000943","title":"Canadian Oil and Gas Production in the Global Clean Energy Transition","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025-06-25","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/canada-oil-gas-clean-energy-transition","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that a significant portion of future capital investments in Canadian oil and gas (2025–2040) are at risk of becoming stranded, particularly under a 1.5°C climate scenario where up to 66% of investments could be lost. It argues that restricting oil and gas development would mitigate economic risks for investors and government, suggesting that Canada should limit expansion and redirect revenues toward clean industries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000943#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Under a 1.5°C climate scenario, up to 66% of future capital investments in Canadian oil and gas projects between 2025 and 2040 are at risk of becoming stranded assets, a figure that could increase if carbon capture and storage technologies underperform.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000943#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The risk of stranded investments varies by policy scenario: 5% of projected investments may fail to deliver returns under current global policies, while this figure rises to 39% under announced climate policies and net-zero pledges.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000943#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Canada's oil and gas industry is highly vulnerable to international market shifts because 81% of its oil and 44% of its gas are exported, making profitability susceptible to weakening demand and climate-related trade risks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000943#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fossil fuel industry","stranded asset","energy transition","carbon capture and storage","liquefied natural gas","fossil fuel subsidy"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","risk assessment"]},{"id":"tess-000064","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/tess-000064","title":"Identifying Environmentally Harmful Agricultural Subsidies at the International Level","publisher":{"name":"Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs","organization":"forum-on-trade-environment-the-sdgs"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025-05","source_url":"https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-IEG-Report-Agricultural-Subsidies.pdf?dm=1749207802","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the environmental impacts of agricultural subsidies, noting that total global support ranges from $610 to $842 billion per year. It argues that while production-linked supports—such as market price support and input subsidies—are often the most harmful, impacts are highly context-specific. The authors propose several frameworks for identifying harmful subsidies, including the use of meta-analyses of farming practices and the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model. To address these issues internationally, the report suggests options such as enhanced transparency, the use of 'rebuttable presumptions' to shift the burden of proof to subsidizing countries, and special and differential treatment for developing nations to balance environmental goals with food security and livelihoods.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000064#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Global agricultural support is estimated to be between $610 billion and $842 billion annually, with a significant portion consisting of price-distorting measures that may harm the environment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000064#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Certain types of agricultural support are identified as more likely to be environmentally harmful, specifically those linked to production, such as market price support, output-based payments, and subsidies for variable inputs like fertilizers and pesticides.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000064#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a positive correlation between the amount of agricultural producer support per hectare and the number of species threatened by agriculture per hectare.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000064#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Removing market price support (MPS) can lead to a paradoxical increase in global greenhouse gas emissions because lower prices in protecting countries can raise overall demand, potentially increasing environmental harm elsewhere.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000064#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report suggests using a 'rebuttable presumption' approach, where a core set of subsidies is deemed harmful unless the subsidizing country can prove the scheme does not cause environmental damage.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000064#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ruminant livestock production is highlighted as a primary area for reform due to its high emissions intensity and the high share of commodity-specific support it receives, resulting in a high implicit carbon subsidy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000064#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies critical trade-offs where environmental reforms may conflict with food security, nutrition, and rural livelihoods, particularly in developing countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000064#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To ensure equity, the report recommends special and differential treatment for developing nations, including longer transition periods and exemptions for low-income or resource-poor producers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000064#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"International cooperation is deemed necessary to avoid 'market leakage,' where the removal of subsidies in one country simply shifts harmful production to countries with lower environmental standards.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000064#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["agricultural subsidy","greenhouse gas emissions","biodiversity loss","sustainable agriculture","land-use change","climate finance","trade policy","food security","deforestation"],"geography_discussed":["Colombia","European Union","People's Republic of China","India","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","literature review","economic modelling"]},{"id":"cliinstca-000342","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cliinstca-000342","title":"2024 Independent Assessment of Carbon Pricing Systems","publisher":{"name":"Canadian Climate Institute","organization":"canadian-climate-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025-03","source_url":"https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2024-Independent-expert-assessment-carbon-pricing.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The 2024 Independent Assessment finds that Canadian carbon pricing systems are effective, delivering between a third and a half of all projected emissions reductions by 2030. While systems have harmonized in coverage and stringency since 2020, some large-emitter trading systems (LETS) in Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan are at risk of losing effectiveness due to credit oversupply and adverse policy interactions. The report also notes that while LETS generally mitigate competitiveness risks for large emitters, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) face varied exposure, with some sectors like water and truck transportation showing high vulnerability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000342#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Carbon pricing is projected to be a primary driver of climate goals, accounting for between one-third and one-half of all emissions reductions attributable to climate policies in 2030 under the legislated policies scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000342#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"National carbon pricing coverage is estimated at 77% of emissions (excluding land use, land-use change, and forestry), with jurisdictional coverage ranging from 41% to 84%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000342#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The marginal cost incentive is generally aligned with the 2024 federal price of $80 per tonne, though it is lower in Quebec's cap-and-trade system and potentially lower in Alberta due to offset availability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000342#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Large-emitter trading systems (LETS) are significantly more impactful than fuel charges, with a maximum potential impact roughly 4.5 times greater.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000342#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a risk that LETS in Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan could see their marginal cost incentives erode by 2030 due to an oversupply of credits caused by policy interactions and generous benchmarks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000342#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Alberta, the marginal cost for large emitters is projected to collapse to $46 per tonne by 2030 in the 'announced, less stringent' scenario due to the interaction with the proposed federal oil and gas emissions cap and surplus credits from the electricity sector.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000342#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Average costs for large emitters remain low, with national averages in six of seven major sectors below $10 per tonne in 2024, which helps protect competitiveness but may discourage long-term structural changes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000342#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Competitiveness risks for large emitters are generally mitigated; no large-emitting sector is projected to face a profit impact where significant financial hardship is likely under all legislated policies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000342#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) exhibit diverse carbon exposure; water, truck, and rail transportation are identified as high-risk sectors based on profit and sales tests.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000342#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Canada Carbon Rebate for Small Business provides limited relief for the most emissions-intensive SMEs, as the flat per-employee rebate does not scale with higher carbon costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000342#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A lack of public data on credit markets and facility-specific performance standards creates opacity that threatens the overall effectiveness of carbon pricing systems.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000342#insight-11","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon price","carbon tax","emission trading","greenhouse gas emissions reduction","carbon leakage","industrial emission"],"geography_discussed":["Alberta","British Columbia","Quebec","Manitoba","New Brunswick","Nova Scotia","Newfoundland and Labrador","Ontario","Northwest Territories","Nunavut","Yukon","Prince Edward Island","California"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["effectiveness assessment","stringency analysis","economic modelling","competitiveness risk assessment"]},{"id":"africac-000054","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/africac-000054","title":"TRADE AND CLIMATE SUSTAINABILITY BRIEFS 2025","publisher":{"name":"African Climate Foundation","organization":"african-climate-foundation"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025","source_url":"https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/801029-ACF-Trade-and-sustainability-report-03.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the intersection of trade and climate sustainability from an African perspective, focusing on the economic impacts of energy transitions, the risks and opportunities of voluntary carbon markets, and the challenges of transition mineral value chains. It critically analyzes the role of the WTO in green trade and provides specific policy recommendations to ensure that climate-related trade measures, such as Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAM), do not disproportionately harm developing nations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000054#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"CGE modelling of South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (SAJETIP) indicates a 0.41% decline in real GDP, a 2.3% increase in the consumer price index, and a 1.7% decline in exports due to lost competitiveness from higher production costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000054#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The SAJETIP has regressive welfare effects, with middle-class households (deciles 6–10) experiencing the most significant negative impact at -1.26%, while low-income households (deciles 1–5) see an average decline of -1.07%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000054#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa's potential for carbon credit sales is significantly underutilized, currently tapping into only 2% of its maximum potential, with the possibility to increase annual sales to over $5 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000054#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Voluntary carbon markets face structural integrity challenges, including 'additionality' (projects that would have happened anyway) and 'permanence' (risk of re-emission), which can lead to a 'race to the bottom' in credit quality.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000054#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China dominates Africa's transition mineral exports, accounting for 56% of the total in 2022, which limits Africa's ability to add value to these minerals domestically.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000054#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Green industrial policies in trading partners, such as the US Inflation Reduction Act's local content requirements, risk distorting supply chains and excluding African countries from subsidies, potentially costing Sub-Saharan Africa 4% of its GDP due to geoeconomic fragmentation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000054#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Processing transition minerals within Africa could reduce global emissions by avoiding the shipping of raw materials to China for processing and then re-shipping them to final destinations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000054#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The African Group at the WTO is advocating for the reform of the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (ASCM) and the Trade-Related Investment Measures (TRIMs) Agreement to increase policy space for green industrialization.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000054#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 13th WTO Ministerial Conference (MC13) failed to produce concrete outcomes on sustainable trade, with the final declaration omitting mentions of climate considerations and failing to revitalize the Committee on Trade and Environment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000054#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Africa Trade Policy Programme recommends that the UK's proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) include exemptions for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and redirect revenues to support decarbonization in low-income countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000054#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["just transition","green industrial policy","Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism","critical minerals","renewable energy","greenhouse gas emissions","sustainable agriculture","circular economy","decarbonization","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["South Africa","People's Republic of China","United States","European Union","United Kingdom","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Morocco","Portugal"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","policy analysis","trade data analysis","legal review"]},{"id":"cliinstca-000325","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cliinstca-000325","title":"Carbon capture in Canada","publisher":{"name":"Canadian Climate Institute","organization":"canadian-climate-institute"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":"2024-12-03","source_url":"https://climateinstitute.ca/safe-bets-wild-cards/carbon-capture-in-canada/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document distinguishes between 'safe bet' concentrated-stream carbon capture and 'wild card' unconcentrated applications, noting that while the former is commercially viable for certain heavy emitters, the overall sector has a history of underperformance and high costs. In Canada, the technology is projected to contribute between 17 and 50 megatonnes of emissions reductions in the oil and gas sector by 2030, supported by federal investment tax credits of up to 50%. However, the author cautions that deployment depends on policy durability and prudent use of public funds, particularly as demand for oil and gas is expected to decline during the energy transition.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000325#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Concentrated-stream carbon capture is considered a 'safe bet' when applied to point sources with consistent, high-concentration carbon pollution, whereas capturing carbon from unconcentrated sources (such as natural gas-fired electricity) or ambient air (direct-air capture) are 'wild cards' due to higher technical challenges.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000325#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Canada's oil and gas sector, carbon capture is estimated to contribute between 17 and 50 megatonnes of emissions reductions toward a 2030 target of 110 megatonnes. Long-term modelling for net zero pathways by 2050 suggests carbon capture could account for 1 to 29 per cent of all emissions reductions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000325#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The commercial viability of the technology is highly dependent on the concentration of carbon dioxide in the waste stream, with costs ranging from $80 to $300 per tonne. In the Canadian oil sands, 8 per cent of emissions are currently suitable for concentrated-stream capture, while 49 per cent are low-concentration and would require a carbon price of at least $170 per tonne to be viable.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000325#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite government support, the technology faces significant hurdles, including a history of pilot projects that have underperformed and failed to deliver promised scales. Additionally, the capture component is highly customized for each facility, accounting for up to 80 per cent of total costs, which increases the risk of cost escalation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000325#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Canada provides significant policy support, including federal investment tax credits of up to 50 per cent and Alberta's Carbon Capture Incentive Program grant of 12 per cent of eligible costs. The document suggests that while subsidies are useful for competitiveness, governments should be cautious about the oil sands industry's request for up to 75 per cent subsidy of total costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000325#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["direct air capture","petroleum industry"],"geography_discussed":["Alberta","Edmonton","Saskatchewan","United States","Norway"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["technology assessment","policy analysis","economic modelling"]},{"id":"catf-000610","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/catf-000610","title":"The Balancing Act: Risks and Benefits of Integrating Permanent Carbon Removals into the EU ETS","publisher":{"name":"Clean Air Task Force","organization":"clean-air-task-force"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2024-12","source_url":"https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26174743/carbon-removals-eu-ets.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report evaluates the integration of permanent carbon removals—specifically BioCCS and DACCS—into the EU ETS. It identifies a critical tension: while direct integration can drive deployment and maintain market liquidity as the emissions cap approaches zero, it risks 'abatement deterrence' where removals substitute for necessary emissions reductions. The authors warn that without supply controls, BioCCS deployment could exceed sustainable biomass limits, potentially harming biodiversity and LULUCF carbon sinks. To mitigate these risks, the report recommends a gradual integration strategy that maintains the gross emissions cap, implements technology-specific supply controls, and introduces differentiated allowances. It also emphasizes that the EU ETS alone is likely insufficient to incentivize high-cost technologies like DACCS or to achieve net-negative emissions post-2050, necessitating additional public funding tools and long-term policy frameworks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000610#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Direct integration of permanent carbon removals without restrictions risks causing 'abatement deterrence,' where companies substitute emissions reductions with removals, leading to an increase in gross emissions within the EU ETS.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000610#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The EU ETS allowance price is likely insufficient on its own to drive the early deployment of Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) due to the high cost of the technology, which would require additional public funding or voluntary market support.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000610#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Unrestricted integration of BioCCS could lead to unsustainable biomass use that exceeds the European Commission's 2040 climate target projections, potentially negatively impacting biodiversity and the LULUCF sector.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000610#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Maintaining the gross emissions cap during initial integration—where one traditional allowance is removed for every removal allowance added—effectively prevents abatement deterrence and preserves the incentive for decarbonization.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000610#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Integrating biochar into the EU ETS could amplify risks of abatement deterrence and sustainability issues due to its relatively low technology costs and reliance on biomass resources, potentially crowding out BECCS deployment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000610#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"An intermediary institution could manage the integration of removals through procurement and a 'carbon removal pool,' but its political feasibility is low due to the requirement of delegating governance powers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000610#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Integration into the EU ETS is insufficient to achieve economy-wide climate neutrality or the EU's post-2050 net-negative emissions commitment without additional obligations or a net-negative emissions cap.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000610#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report recommends a combination of safeguards for integration: maintaining the gross emissions cap, implementing supply controls on removal methods, introducing differentiated allowances, and establishing a review clause.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000610#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["European Union Emission Trading Scheme 1","bio-energy with carbon capture and storage","biochar","Villevocance","carbon capture and storage"],"geography_discussed":["New Zealand","United Kingdom","United States","Iceland","People's Republic of China","Denmark","Sweden","California","South Korea"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","economic modelling"]},{"id":"afrodad-000004","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/afrodad-000004","title":"Reforming fiscal policies to reduce inequalities and eradicate poverty (SDG 1, 10)","publisher":{"name":"African Forum and Network on Debt and Development","organization":"african-forum-and-network-on-debt-and-development"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2024-09-12","source_url":"https://afrodad.org/news-events/articles/taxation-wealth-eradication-poverty-and-inequality","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document advocates for a progressive tax agenda to address extreme poverty and wealth concentration, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. It proposes several instruments: Financial Transaction Taxes (FTTs) to curb speculation and raise billions annually; net wealth taxes to target the super-rich; property taxes to leverage immobile assets; and Resource Rent Taxes (RTT) for the extractives sector. Using South Africa as a case study, the brief demonstrates that a combination of these taxes could generate substantial revenue to fund social protection, healthcare, and a Universal Basic Income Guarantee, potentially increasing GDP growth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afrodad-000004#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Sub-Saharan Africa faces severe poverty and wealth concentration, with over 389 million people living in extreme poverty in 2018 and the wealthiest 10% owning more than half of the region's wealth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afrodad-000004#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"African tax structures are disproportionately reliant on regressive consumption taxes compared to other regions; in 2021, VAT accounted for 27.8% of total tax revenue in Africa, compared to 25.6% in the Asia-Pacific and 20.2% in the OECD.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afrodad-000004#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A Financial Transaction Tax (FTT) could generate significant global revenue, with estimates ranging from $200 billion to $900 billion annually depending on the rates and types of taxes applied.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afrodad-000004#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Wealth taxes on the world's richest individuals are proposed as a means to fund social protection and a just transition, with an estimate that taxing the richest 3,000 people globally could raise approximately $250 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afrodad-000004#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Property taxation is identified as an underutilised revenue source in developing countries, which collect only 0.5% of GDP from property taxes compared to 2% in developed countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afrodad-000004#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In South Africa, implementing a progressive net wealth tax of 3-7% could raise between R70 billion and R160 billion, while a broader Financial Transaction Tax at 0.1% could generate over R40 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afrodad-000004#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A 'high-ambition' basic income grant scenario in South Africa, funded by progressive taxation, is estimated to increase average GDP growth from 2.2% in 2023 to 3.5% by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afrodad-000004#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["tax policy","extractive industry","climate justice","just transition","social protection"],"geography_discussed":["South Africa","Zimbabwe","Kenya","Namibia","Comoros","Angola","Botswana","Lesotho","Eswatini","Spain","Sweden","Norway","Switzerland","Argentina","Colombia","Ecuador","Uruguay","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","economic modelling","comparative analysis"]},{"id":"cliinstca-000485","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cliinstca-000485","title":"THE ROAD TO NET ZERO ELECTRICITY IN SASKATCHEWAN","publisher":{"name":"Canadian Climate Institute","organization":"canadian-climate-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2024-09","source_url":"https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/The-Road-to-Net-Zero-Electrcity-in-Saskatchewan.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The analysis finds that complying with revised Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) is technically achievable for SaskPower without jeopardizing grid reliability. While the Saskatchewan government previously claimed rates would double by 2035, this modelling indicates that residential electricity rates would only increase by 6–9% relative to a baseline scenario. The CER would significantly reduce cumulative greenhouse gas emissions between 2025 and 2050 by accelerating the adoption of carbon capture and storage and increasing imports of clean electricity from Manitoba.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000485#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Compliance with the Clean Electricity Regulations, incorporating flexibilities proposed by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) in February 2024, is technically and logistically achievable for SaskPower without compromising electricity reliability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000485#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Residential electricity rate increases by 2035 under revised CER scenarios are estimated at 6–9% (1.5 to 2.1 cents/kWh) relative to SaskPower's supply plans, contradicting provincial government claims that rates would more than double.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000485#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Clean Electricity Regulations would significantly lower cumulative greenhouse gas emissions from 2025 to 2050, reducing them from 126.3 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent in the baseline scenario to between 86.4 and 95.9 megatonnes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000485#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"All modelled scenarios indicate significant growth in wind energy, with projected total system capacity between 3,633 and 4,100 megawatts by 2050, representing 42.5% to 47% of the total capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000485#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The CER scenarios achieve lower domestic emissions intensity by reducing the use of gas plants and accelerating the deployment of carbon capture and storage, as well as increasing imports from Manitoba.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000485#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Additional capital investment required by 2035 to meet CER requirements is estimated at $4 billion for the flexible scenario and $6.5 billion for the strict scenario relative to the SaskPower Supply Plan.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000485#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Federal Investment Tax Credits, particularly if increased to 30% for Crown Corporations, could significantly mitigate electricity rate pressures in Saskatchewan.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000485#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon capture and storage","wind power","photovoltaics","climate finance","greenhouse gas emissions","electricity price"],"geography_discussed":["Manitoba","Canada"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","policy assessment","technical feasibility study"]},{"id":"iisd-001752","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-001752","title":"Manitoba Builds Green","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2024-09","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-09/manitoba-builds-green.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that Manitoba requires a massive, publicly led effort to implement deep energy retrofits (DERs)—defined as improvements reducing energy use by at least 50%—to meet 2050 net-zero targets. It estimates that 200,000 home retrofits are needed, requiring an annual investment of CAD 1.2 billion. The authors propose the creation of a Manitoba Green Bank to provide low- or no-interest financing and the adoption of a retrofit code by 2025. The strategy emphasizes a 'just transition' by prioritizing low-income renters and utilizing social enterprises to train underrepresented groups, including women and Indigenous Peoples, for the thousands of green jobs expected to be created.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001752#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"To achieve net-zero in Manitoba's building sector by 2050, approximately 200,000 home retrofits are required, averaging 8,000 homes per year. This would necessitate an estimated annual investment of CAD 1.2 billion, totaling CAD 30 billion over 25 years, based on an average cost of CAD 150,000 per home.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001752#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Deep energy retrofits (DERs) are defined as changes to building infrastructure that improve energy efficiency by at least 50%. In Manitoba, these are critical because the province has the oldest housing stock in Canada, with 16% of homes built before 1946.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001752#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report argues that a market-led approach to energy-efficiency incentives is insufficient. It recommends the establishment of a Manitoba Green Bank to provide long-term, patient, low- or no-interest financing, as private lenders are unlikely to engage due to the long amortization periods and negative discounted net present values of DER loans.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001752#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Public investment in building retrofits is projected to have high economic multipliers. An annual investment of CAD 800 million in Manitoba is estimated to produce CAD 1.7 billion in provincial GDP and 7,100 job years every year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001752#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies a critical need for workforce development to avoid skill shortages, noting that 9,100 workers (about 20% of Manitoba's construction workforce) are expected to retire by 2033. It suggests partnering with social enterprises and First Nations to train underrepresented groups, such as women, Indigenous Peoples, and newcomers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001752#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current building codes in Manitoba are described as regressive, having returned to Tier 1 standards. The report recommends immediately adopting at least Tier 3 building codes for residential buildings and expediting the adoption of a retrofit code by 2025, including a ban on natural gas heating.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001752#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To create market signals and value for energy efficiency, the report recommends introducing mandatory energy labelling for buildings, particularly during home sales, as no Canadian jurisdiction has yet mandated this.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001752#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ground source heat pump (GSHP) technology is highlighted as a key complement to DERs in Manitoba. Converting electric-resistance heat homes to geothermal can reduce peak load on the grid by roughly 7-8 KW per home, potentially saving hundreds of megawatts in aggregate.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001752#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Deep energy retrofit","greenhouse gas emissions","Net-zero emissions","energy efficiency","climate finance","just transition","green job","workforce development","building code","heat pump","geothermal energy","electrification","government procurement"],"geography_discussed":["Canada","Toronto","Netherlands","Germany"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","economic modelling","case study"]},{"id":"cliinstca-000345","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cliinstca-000345","title":"UP TO THE CHALLENGE: ACHIEVING A NET ZERO GRID IN ALBERTA","publisher":{"name":"Canadian Climate Institute","organization":"canadian-climate-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2024-08","source_url":"https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Achieving-Net-Zero-Electricity-in-Alberta-1.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that Alberta can almost completely decarbonize its electricity generation within the next decade using wind, solar, and gas with carbon capture. While federal Clean Electricity Regulations are a point of political contention, modelling suggests they have little impact on the long-term supply mix compared to the massive projected growth in electricity demand driven by industrial electrification. The transition's success depends on scaling up transmission infrastructure and maintaining policy stability to attract private investment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000345#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Alberta possesses the natural resources and technical capacity to nearly fully decarbonize its electricity generation within the next ten years, aligning with the flexibility expected in updated federal Clean Electricity Regulations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000345#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Modelling indicates that the federal Clean Electricity Regulations have minimal influence on the future development of Alberta's grid; in both scenarios (with and without the regulations), electricity demand is expected to more than double, met primarily by wind, solar, and gas with carbon capture.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000345#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To achieve economy-wide net zero, Alberta would require a massive expansion of renewables; wind and solar generation would need to grow by 650% of 2023 levels to supply over 100 terawatt-hours annually by 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000345#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Industrial electrification is predicted to be the primary driver of load growth, with the industrial sector alone potentially reaching 130 terawatt-hours of demand by 2040, which exceeds the entire province's 2023 generation of less than 90 terawatt-hours.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000345#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Transmission capacity is a critical bottleneck; current constraints are already affecting wind and solar, and the pace of infrastructure build-out could severely limit future carbon emissions reductions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000345#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While carbon capture and storage (CCS) on gas-fired plants appears in most models, its private-sector viability is uncertain, as evidenced by Capital Power terminating a CCS retrofit project due to it not being 'economically feasible'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000345#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Net-zero emissions","electricity generation","wind power","solar energy","carbon capture and storage","Industrial decarbonization","electric power transmission","carbon price","natural gas","energy storage","Coal phase-out"],"geography_discussed":["Canada","Texas","California","World","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scoping paper","economic modelling","policy review"]},{"id":"iisd-000712","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-000712","title":"Modelling the Impacts of Policy Interventions for Agrifood Systems Transformation in Indonesia","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2024-07-16","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/modelling-impacts-policy-interventions-agrifood-indonesia","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report details a collaborative modelling effort by the International Food Policy Research Institute, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IISD, and Kiel University to address challenges in Indonesia's agrifood systems, such as food insecurity, malnutrition, and deforestation. By using three economic models, the project aims to provide technically sound and politically feasible policy interventions to support Indonesia's medium- and long-term development planning and climate commitments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000712#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Indonesia's agrifood systems face several critical challenges that obstruct sustainable development, specifically food insecurity, malnutrition, unsustainable agricultural practices, and deforestation along with its related climate impacts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000712#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A new modelling approach utilizing three economic models was piloted in Indonesia to provide insights that assist policy-makers in creating interventions that are both politically feasible and technically sound.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000712#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["deforestation","food security","sustainable agriculture"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","economic modelling"]},{"id":"ember-000177","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ember-000177","title":"A breath of fresh air: Offshore wind in Bulgaria","publisher":{"name":"Ember","organization":"ember"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2024-02-20","source_url":"https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/a-breath-of-fresh-air-offshore-wind-in-bulgaria","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Bulgaria is at a pivotal energy transition point as coal's share of electricity generation fell below 30% in 2023. While solar power has grown rapidly, wind energy has stagnated since 2012. The report highlights a technical offshore wind potential of 4.3-5 GW in the maritime exclusive economic zone near Romania, which could lower wholesale power prices by 45% by 2030 if combined with increased onshore wind and better interconnections. To achieve this, the report recommends the swift adoption of a new offshore wind law, the implementation of Contracts-for-Difference (CfDs), and the update of the National Energy and Climate Plan with explicit 2030 targets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000177#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"In 2023, Bulgaria's electricity generation from coal dropped to 28.9%, the first time it has fallen below 30%, while clean power provided 66% of domestic generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000177#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Bulgaria's solar capacity grew significantly in 2023, adding over 2 GW to reach a total of 3.9 GW by the end of the year, with generation increasing by 1.4 TWh (68%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000177#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Wind energy generation in Bulgaria has essentially stalled since 2012 due to grid access constraints, lack of political will, and governance shortcomings.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000177#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The most promising area of Bulgaria's maritime exclusive economic zone (EEZ) near the Romanian border has a technical potential of 4.3-5 GW, with capacity factors of 45-48% and a levelized cost of electricity between EUR 62-90/MWh.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000177#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Developing 1.8 GW of offshore wind, increasing 2030 onshore wind targets to 3.9 GW, and improving interconnections with Greece and Romania could reduce Bulgaria's wholesale power prices by 45% by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000177#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Bulgaria is one of only three EU member states that had not submitted draft National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) by the mid-2023 deadline, and it is one of three coastal EU countries that have not announced non-binding offshore wind targets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000177#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report recommends the adoption of two-sided Contracts-for-Difference (CfDs) to lower capital costs for investors and protect consumers, noting that such schemes are already used in countries like the UK, Poland, and Greece.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000177#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["offshore wind power","solar energy","Coal phase-out","electricity generation","energy security","green hydrogen"],"geography_discussed":["Romania","Greece","Poland","Czech Republic","United Kingdom","Estonia","Latvia","Denmark","Slovenia","Cyprus"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","economic modelling","technical assessment"]},{"id":"afph-000006","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/afph-000006","title":"NAVIGATING CLIMATE ACTION","publisher":{"name":"African Future Policies Hub","organization":"african-future-policies-hub"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2024","source_url":"https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/b2d05cc3-7b8c-4f0d-a62a-66af7434f28f/downloads/039f561d-45a6-4c4b-a3e3-5c88f2878645/Navigating%20the%20Impacts%20of%20Climate%20Change.pdf?ver=1780902966163","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the potential effects of International Maritime Organization (IMO) candidate mid-term GHG measures on African economies. Using a CGE model, it finds that a USD100/t carbon levy would generally reduce GDP and household incomes across Africa, increase global food prices, and reduce the supply of maritime services. A case study of Ghana highlights existing freight cost imbalances and the risk of a stranded fleet of older vessels. The authors argue that for such measures to be equitable, revenues must be redistributed as direct grants (not loans) for out-of-sector climate resilience and mitigation, based on criteria including climate vulnerability and historical emissions contributions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afph-000006#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"A global shipping levy of USD100 per tonne of carbon is projected to reduce the supply of maritime shipping services among African countries by up to 7%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afph-000006#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The imposition of a shipping levy is forecast to have negative but limited effects on GDP for most individual African countries, with Equatorial Guinea being the most affected at a reduction of 0.121%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afph-000006#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The levy is expected to increase global prices for processed food commodities by 0.013% and agricultural commodities by 0.011%, which may threaten food security in African countries that rely heavily on food imports.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afph-000006#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Household incomes in most African countries are projected to fall, with Ghana forecast to see a 0.101% reduction, which is ten times the reduction predicted for European households.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afph-000006#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"African trade routes already suffer from structural imbalances; for example, the emissions surcharge for Europe-West Africa trade is nearly ten times higher per nautical mile than for Europe-Canada trade under the EU-ETS.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afph-000006#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant risk of a 'stranded fleet' in Africa, as many vessels are old tankers running on heavy fuel oil and marine diesel engines that are too expensive to retrofit.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afph-000006#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report argues that revenue redistribution should be based on a Multidimensional Vulnerability Index (MVI) rather than just Gross National Income per capita, to ensure countries like Ghana, which have high climate vulnerability but middle-income status, are not excluded.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afph-000006#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To adhere to the 'polluter pays' principle, the report recommends that revenues be transferred to climate-vulnerable countries as direct grants rather than loans or interest-bearing instruments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afph-000006#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Decarbonisation of the maritime sector could provide an opportunity for Africa to become a major producer of green hydrogen, potentially reducing continental emissions by up to 40%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afph-000006#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","green hydrogen","climate finance","food security","climate change vulnerability","just transition","stranded asset"],"geography_discussed":["Ghana","European Union","People's Republic of China","South Africa","Equatorial Guinea","Egypt","Ethiopia","Nigeria","Morocco"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","case study","policy assessment"]},{"id":"climstra-000032","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/climstra-000032","title":"Energy Transition in Brazil: Innovation, Opportunities, and Risks","publisher":{"name":"Climate Strategies","organization":"climate-strategies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2023-12-12","source_url":"https://climatestrategies.org/publication/new-country-reports-from-the-eeist-project/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document presents findings from the EEIST programme in Brazil, arguing that risk-opportunity analysis (ROA) is a more effective tool for policymakers than traditional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) when assessing the green transition. It highlights how Brazil's specific financial and landscape dimensions can facilitate low-carbon re-industrialisation, supporting these claims with empirical and modelling case studies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000032#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The report argues that risk-opportunity analysis (ROA) is superior to traditional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) for assessing the green transition because it better accounts for the dynamic nature of low-carbon re-industrialisation and the interactions between policies and an evolving economy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000032#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Brazil's specific financial situation and landscape characteristics provide opportunities for the country to pursue an effective low-carbon re-industrialisation strategy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000032#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy transition","environmental policy"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy assessment","economic modelling"]},{"id":"cliinstca-000210","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cliinstca-000210","title":"Removing carbon price increase emissions, Canadians worse off","publisher":{"name":"Canadian Climate Institute","organization":"canadian-climate-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2023-11-10","source_url":"https://climateinstitute.ca/removing-carbon-price-increase-emissions-canadians-worse-off/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The analysis finds that exempting natural gas and heating oil from the federal carbon price would increase emissions and reduce household affordability, particularly for low-income Canadians, due to a decrease in the value of Climate Action Incentive Payments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000210#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Exempting heating oil from the fuel charge has a negligible effect on emissions, estimated to increase by 111 kilotonnes of CO2e (0.1 megatonne) in 2030. This is attributed to the small number of oil furnaces in Canada and high oil prices that already incentivize a shift to heat pumps.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000210#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Exempting natural gas from the federal carbon price would significantly increase emissions, with an estimated rise of 4.5 megatonnes in 2030 compared to the current trajectory. This increase represents 8 per cent of the projected gap to Canada's 2030 target.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000210#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Removing the carbon price from heating fuels would worsen affordability for most Canadians, especially low-income households, because it reduces the revenue available for Climate Action Incentive Payments (household rebates). In Alberta, the lowest-earning households would see an income hit of 0.51 per cent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000210#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A total removal of the fuel charge from all jurisdictions except British Columbia and Quebec would lead to an emissions increase of 13.5 megatonnes in 2030, which is 23 per cent of the current gap to the 2030 target.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000210#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon price","greenhouse gas emissions","natural gas","heat pump","energy access"],"geography_discussed":["Alberta","British Columbia","Quebec"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","policy analysis"]},{"id":"cliinstca-000034","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cliinstca-000034","title":"Carbon capture and storage can help meet climate goals","publisher":{"name":"Canadian Climate Institute","organization":"canadian-climate-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2023-07-12","source_url":"https://climateinstitute.ca/carbon-capture-and-storage-can-help-meet-climate-goals/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Canadian Climate Institute's analysis indicates that CCS projects in the oilsands sector are economically viable under current and proposed federal and provincial policies, including carbon pricing and investment tax credits. The study finds that these projects can generate substantial private returns, suggesting that additional public subsidies beyond those already announced are unnecessary and could lead to excessive corporate profits. While CCS can improve carbon competitiveness and reduce the risk of stranded assets in a declining global oil market, it does not eliminate long-term transition risks associated with the Paris Agreement goals.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000034#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Modelling of hypothetical oilsands facilities indicates that CCS projects are economically viable when accounting for Canada's climate regulations and the rising carbon price, potentially yielding substantial private returns.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000034#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The cost of installing CCS at in-situ and mining facilities is estimated between $89 and $144 per tonne of emissions avoided, which is lower than the projected 2030 federal carbon price of $170 per tonne.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000034#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Additional public subsidies beyond those already announced are not required to make oilsands CCS projects viable, and further funding risks creating excessive profits for companies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000034#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While CCS can improve a facility's carbon competitiveness and reduce the risk of becoming a stranded asset, it does not remove the overall transition risk as global oil demand declines and Paris Agreement goals require steep emission cuts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000034#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The economic viability of these projects depends heavily on the swift finalization of key policies, specifically the federal carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) investment tax credit and 'carbon contracts for differences' to manage carbon-pricing risk.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000034#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon capture and storage","oil sands","carbon price","climate finance","stranded asset","Net-zero emissions","emission intensity"],"geography_discussed":["Alberta","World"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","policy analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-000322","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-000322","title":"Achieving Sustainable Food Systems in a Global Crisis: Summary Report","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"executive summary","language":"en","date_published":"2023-01-26","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/sustainable-food-systems-global-crisis-summary","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report outlines a strategy to transform food systems in Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria, requiring an average additional public investment of USD 10 billion per year from 2023 to 2030. This investment, split between donors (USD 5.8 billion) and countries (USD 4.2 billion), aims to reduce undernourishment to under 3% by 2030, double the incomes of 29 million small-scale producers, and transition 248 million people to healthier diets while meeting greenhouse gas emission goals.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000322#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Transforming food systems in Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria requires an average additional public investment of USD 10 billion annually from 2023 to 2030. This funding is divided into an average donor share of USD 5.8 billion and a country share of USD 4.2 billion per year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000322#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a critical imbalance between short-term emergency food assistance and long-term investment in agricultural development, with the latter being significantly underfunded, which increases vulnerability to shocks and raises poverty and hunger levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000322#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The proposed investments are projected to reduce the prevalence of undernourishment to under 3% by 2030 across all three countries, down from current projections of 22% in Ethiopia, 25% in Malawi, and 21% in Nigeria.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000322#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The roadmaps aim to achieve significant social and economic gains, including transitioning 248 million people (approximately 60% of the population) to healthier diets and doubling the average incomes of 29 million small-scale producers by 2030 compared to 2015.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000322#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"These food system transformations are designed to be achieved while increasing the climate resilience of vulnerable populations and keeping greenhouse gas emissions within the limits of nationally determined contribution goals.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000322#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["agriculture","food system","climate change adaptation","climate change mitigation","greenhouse gas emissions","Nationally Determined Contributions","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","Ukraine"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","policy analysis","costing"]},{"id":"iisd-000631","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-000631","title":"Achieving Sustainable Food Systems in a Global Crisis: Ethiopia","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2023-01-16","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/sustainable-food-systems-global-crisis-ethiopia","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Ethiopia is not on track to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, with poverty and hunger projected to increase due to conflict, pests, economic slowdown, and climate change. The report argues that sustainable food system transformation is possible within a decade if public investment is increased by USD 4.6 billion and targeted toward interventions that provide multiple development outcomes. It highlights a critical funding gap where long-term investments for Sustainable Development Goal 2 are significantly underfunded compared to short-term emergency food assistance, which increases the country's vulnerability to future shocks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000631#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Ethiopia is projected to have higher levels of poverty and hunger in 2030 than it does currently, failing to meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000631#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Sustainable food system transformation in Ethiopia can be achieved over the next ten years through an additional USD 4.6 billion in public investment focused on effective, multi-outcome interventions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000631#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant imbalance in funding, with long-term investments required for Sustainable Development Goal 2 being underfunded relative to short-term emergency food aid, thereby increasing Ethiopia's vulnerability to crises.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000631#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Multiple compounding factors are hindering Ethiopia's progress, including the conflict in Tigray, desert locust swarms, an economic slowdown, and price spikes for food, energy, and fertilizer driven by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000631#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["food system","climate change adaptation","climate change mitigation","Sustainable Development Goals","climate finance","poverty reduction"],"geography_discussed":["Malawi","Nigeria","Tigray Region","Ukraine"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","policy analysis","literature review"]},{"id":"iisd-003587","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-003587","title":"Achieving Sustainable Food Systems in a Global Crisis","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"executive summary","language":"en","date_published":"2023-01","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2023-01/sustainable-food-systems-global-crisis-summary.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report identifies a significant financing gap of USD 10 billion per year needed to achieve sustainable food system transformation in Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria. It argues that current funding is overly skewed toward short-term emergency assistance rather than long-term agricultural development. By investing in on-farm productivity, social protection, and climate-resilient infrastructure, the report projects that undernourishment could drop below 3% and the incomes of 29 million small-scale producers could double by 2030, all while meeting nationally determined contribution goals for greenhouse gas emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003587#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Achieving sustainable food system transformation in Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria requires an average additional public investment of USD 10 billion per year from 2023 to 2030. This is split between a donor share of USD 5.8 billion and a country share of USD 4.2 billion per year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003587#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a critical imbalance in funding where official development assistance for short-term emergency food assistance has increased, while long-term investment in agriculture and food security has stagnated, increasing vulnerability to future shocks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003587#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The livestock sector is the primary source of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in the three countries, and emissions are projected to rise by 2030 without intervention: 5.8% annually in Ethiopia, 4.4% in Malawi, and 2.3% in Nigeria.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003587#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current diets in Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria are dominated by carbohydrate-rich staples, with fruits and vegetables accounting for less than 10% of average food intake, falling short of the WHO recommendation of 400g per day.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003587#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agricultural productivity is significantly low, with the average productivity of major crops being less than 1,000 kg/ha on over 60% of farmland, which is 3.5 times lower than the global average.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003587#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Food loss and waste are substantial, particularly for perishables; in Nigeria, losses for perishable crops can reach up to 60% due to poor infrastructure and transport.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003587#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report projects that filling the USD 10 billion annual financing gap would reduce the prevalence of undernourishment to under 3% by 2030, compared to baseline projections of 22% in Ethiopia, 25% in Malawi, and 21% in Nigeria.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003587#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To balance the need for nutrient-dense animal-source foods with climate goals, the report recommends sustainable livestock intensification through better breeding, feed, manure management, and a shift toward small ruminants.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003587#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["food system","climate change adaptation","greenhouse gas emissions","Nationally Determined Contributions","climate finance","agroforestry","biodiversity","water management"],"geography_discussed":["Tigray Region"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","policy assessment","cost-benefit analysis"]}]}