{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["econometric modeling"]},"warnings":[]},"total":{"value":23,"relation":"eq"},"page":2,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=econometric+modeling&page=2","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"prio-001297","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001297","title":"Conflict on the urban fringe: Urbanization, environmental stress, and urban unrest in Africa","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/af66288f-2423-4eab-8298-1e8c830ef693/Conflict on the urban fringe Urbanization environmental stress and urban unrest in Africa.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study finds that high urban population growth is significantly associated with increased social unrest, but only in peri-urban areas (the urban outskirts). In contrast, population growth in primary urban cores is negatively associated with unrest. The researchers found no evidence that this relationship is driven by environmental push factors such as nearby droughts; in fact, droughts hitting urban areas directly were found to be negatively associated with unrest.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001297#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"High urban population growth is associated with a higher likelihood of urban social unrest, with the probability of unrest being 64% greater in areas with 5% annual population growth compared to those with no growth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001297#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The positive relationship between population growth and social unrest is specific to peri-urban areas (the urban outskirts), where the probability of unrest is 58% greater in areas with 5% annual population growth compared to those with no growth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001297#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In primary urban centers, the relationship is reversed: the rate of grid population growth is negatively associated with social unrest.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001297#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is no evidence that droughts in nearby rural areas (within 200 km) drive the link between urban population growth and social unrest, rejecting the hypothesis that environmental push factors spur rural-to-urban migration that feeds unrest.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001297#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Droughts that directly affect urban areas are negatively associated with social unrest, contradicting resource scarcity scenarios that assume competition for resources increases tension.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001297#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Other factors significantly associated with increased urban unrest include higher overall population size, proximity to the national capital, and a higher density of infrastructure.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001297#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Higher levels of economic development, measured by GDP per capita within the grid, are associated with lower levels of urban unrest.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001297#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["urbanization","drought","climate change"],"geography_discussed":["Algeria"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative","spatial analysis","econometric modeling"]},{"id":"prio-001525","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001525","title":"Listening to Peace Dimensions and Variations in the Implementation of the Final Peace Agreement in Colombia","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1c5b5e62-90f7-4568-aee4-f7332983c447/Listening to Peace Dimensions and Variations in the Implementation of the Final Peace Agreement in Colombia.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report presents findings from two survey rounds (2019 and 2021) involving over 11,000 citizens in 72 PDET municipalities. While general satisfaction with the Agreement's implementation increased from 36% in 2019 to 48% in 2021, the report identifies a 'story of contrasts.' Residents generally value the Agreement's content and specific tools like reincorporation and crop substitution, but perceive actual implementation as insufficient and unequal across subregions. Security conditions are viewed as deteriorating, and trust in ex-combatants remains very low, hindering reconciliation. The report emphasizes that tangible improvements in security, public works, and reparations are the primary drivers of satisfaction and trust in state institutions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"General satisfaction with the implementation of the Peace Agreement rose from 36% in 2019 to 48% in 2021, though this trend was negative in the Catatumbo, Pacific Nariño, Middle Pacific, and Upper Patía-North Cauca subregions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Perceptions of security have worsened, with the percentage of people reporting a deterioration in their community's security over the last 12 months increasing from 35% in 2019 to 43% in 2021.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While 92% of respondents agree with reincorporation processes and 76% support state benefits for ex-combatants, deep mistrust persists, with 87% stating they do not trust FARC ex-combatants.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is strong support for the clarification of truth (68%) and the principle that victims must be redressed (89%), but only 26% believe the implementation of justice and reparation measures is satisfactory.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The PDET is viewed with hope, with 59% believing it will transform their territory, yet the perceived arrival of public works decreased from 35% in 2019 to 27% in 2021.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Crop substitution is widely supported (85%) and forced eradication is largely rejected (77%), but less than 20% of respondents believe substitution programs are on the right track.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic conditions in PDET regions deteriorated significantly due to COVID-19, with the percentage of people reporting a worsening economic situation doubling from 31.4% in 2019 to 63% in 2021.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a strong preference for a negotiated solution to the conflict with the ELN, with 86% of respondents favoring this approach, particularly in Arauca (96.4%), Chocó (95.7%), and Catatumbo (92.8%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Public investment priorities for PDET residents are centered on health (51.9%), education (29.5%), and roads (14.1%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Trust in state institutions remains low, with less than half of respondents trusting the President (23.4%), Congress (12.2%), or state institutions generally (29.5%), while the Catholic Church (61%) and the UN (over 40%) enjoy higher trust.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["deforestation","land tenure"],"geography_discussed":["Catatumbo","Pacific Nariño","Middle Pacific","Upper Patía-North Cauca","Urabá Antioqueño","Arauca Department","Chocó Department","South Córdoba","Montes de María","Macarena-Guaviare","Putumayo Department","South Tolima","Caguán Basin and Caquetá Foothills","Sierra Nevada-Perijá","Low Cauca and Northeast of Antioquia","South Bolívar"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["perception survey","longitudinal study","focus groups","econometric modeling"]},{"id":"saiia-000574","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/saiia-000574","title":"Identifying Intra-Commonwealth Value Chains","publisher":{"name":"South African Institute of International Affairs","organization":"south-african-institute-of-international-affairs"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/013-Identifying-Intra-Commonwealth-Value-Chains-by-Jodie-Keane.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"This research paper by Jodie Keane explores the nature of intra-Commonwealth value chains using a mixed-methods approach. It analyzes trade intensity, shifts in intermediate goods sourcing, and firm-level data to determine how Commonwealth members integrate into regional versus global value chains (GVCs). The findings suggest a prevalence of additive value chains and a specific tendency for Small Island Developing States to export within the Commonwealth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000574#summary","date_modified":"2026-08-17"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Commonwealth members exhibit higher trade intensity on an intra-regional basis within 'additive' types of value chains, such as those based on natural resources and agro-processing, compared to more vertically fragmented GVCs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000574#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-08-17"},{"text":"Between 2000 and 2012, there were significant shifts in the sourcing of intermediate goods within the Commonwealth: sourcing of industrial goods increased by 10.8 per cent and fuels increased by 9.7 per cent, while the sourcing of capital goods declined by 23.9 per cent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000574#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-08-17"},{"text":"Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are significantly more likely to export to other Commonwealth members than other member country groups, with an odds ratio of 5.088 for intra-Commonwealth exports and 0.372 for extra-Commonwealth exports.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000574#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-08-17"},{"text":"Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), indicated by a firm having 10 per cent or more foreign ownership, increases the likelihood of a Commonwealth firm exporting by nearly three times, with a preference for intra-Commonwealth partners.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000574#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-08-17"},{"text":"Customs and trade regulations act as a barrier to exporting for Commonwealth firms generally, but these barriers appear to be less problematic for those specifically exporting to other Commonwealth members.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000574#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-08-17"},{"text":"Analysis of value added indicates that Foreign Value Added (FVA) slightly increases the likelihood of a firm exporting on an intra-Commonwealth basis, whereas Domestic Value Added (DVA) increases the likelihood of exporting on an extra-regional basis.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000574#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-08-17"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Asia","People's Republic of China","Europe","United States","Africa","Kenya","Brazil","North America","East Asia","Southern Africa","Japan","South Africa","Lesotho","Caribbean","South Asia","India"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["Trade Analysis","Value Chain Analysis","Econometric Modeling"]}]}