{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["dyadic analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'dyadic analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":4,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=dyadic+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"prio-000906","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-000906","title":"“Oil Above Water”: Economic Interdependence and Third Party Intervention","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/bd8821d4-f8cc-49f7-aa15-90db46e52cb6/Oil above Water Economic Interdependence and Third-Party Intervention.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research paper develops a formal model and provides empirical analysis to argue that third-party military intervention in civil wars is driven by economic factors. The authors find that the likelihood of intervention increases when the conflict state has large oil reserves, when the global oil market is more oligopolistic (less competitive), and when the potential intervener is a net oil importer. Using a dyadic dataset from 1945-1999, the study demonstrates that the value of oil reserves and the intervener's balance of trade in oil are significant predictors of intervention, often exerting a larger impact than traditional factors like ethnic ties or Cold War dynamics.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-000906#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Third-party military intervention is more likely when the country experiencing a civil war possesses larger oil endowments, as disruptions in highly endowed countries cause greater international price increases.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-000906#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Intervention is more probable when the global oil market is more oligopolistic, meaning lower levels of competition increase the importance of stabilizing a region to prevent market shocks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-000906#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Countries that are net importers of oil have a higher likelihood of intervening in oil-producing countries embroiled in civil war compared to net exporters.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-000906#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Bilateral trade interdependence increases the likelihood of intervention; specifically, a third party is more likely to intervene if it depends on oil imports from the conflict state.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-000906#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For oil-exporting countries, an increase in international demand for oil actually decreases the likelihood of them intervening in another oil-producing country's civil war because the resulting higher profits outweigh the costs of higher oil prices for their own consumers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-000906#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["petroleum"],"geography_discussed":["Chad","Mali","Niger","Libya","Syria","Iraq","Kuwait"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["formal modeling","econometric analysis","dyadic analysis"]},{"id":"prio-001371","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001371","title":"Ethno-Nationalist Triads: Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2f014d34-342d-4028-b156-0aa74d757cbd/Ethno-Nationalist Triads Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research argues that transnational ethnic ties increase the risk of civil war, but this effect is conditional on the domestic demographic size of the marginalized group. Using a triadic model and geocoded data, the authors find that larger excluded groups with kin in neighboring states are significantly more likely to engage in conflict than those without such ties, while the governmental status of the external kin group does not have a statistically significant impact.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001371#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The probability of ethno-nationalist civil war increases when marginalized ethnic groups are larger in relative demographic size, are located further from the state capital, or reside in mountainous terrain.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001371#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Transnational ethnic ties do not unconditionally increase the risk of conflict; rather, their influence is conditional on the domestic power balance of the marginalized group.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001371#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The presence of transnational kin in neighboring states significantly improves the predictive accuracy of conflict onset models compared to models relying solely on domestic variables.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001371#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is no statistically significant evidence that the risk of conflict is higher when the external kin group is in power (governmental) as opposed to being a marginalized group themselves.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001371#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The risk of conflict is specifically heightened for groups with kin in neighboring states (within 500 km), as geographical proximity facilitates resource mobilization and provides tactical advantages like extra-territorial bases.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001371#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study's findings are consistent across both static analysis (1945-2005) and dynamic annual panel data, confirming that the interactive effect between demographic size and transnational ties is robust.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001371#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Turkey","Iraq","Croatia","Bosnia and Herzegovina","Kosovo","Switzerland"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative analysis","dyadic analysis","triadic model","regression analysis"]},{"id":"prio-001386","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001386","title":"Fighting at Home, Fighting Abroad: How Civil Wars Lead to International Disputes","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/0d24b4d6-a0a8-4050-935c-e0261a8a53a2/Fighting at Home Fighting Abroad How Civil Wars Lead to International Disputes.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research demonstrates that states experiencing civil wars are significantly more likely to be involved in militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). Using data from 1946 to 2001, the authors find that this 'civil peace' effect is comparable in magnitude to the 'democratic peace' effect. Analysis of over 400 MIDs reveals that the increased risk is driven by states attempting to influence the outcome of civil wars through direct intervention, externalization (such as cross-border counter-insurgency), and unintended spillovers, rather than by opportunistic attacks on weakened states or diversionary wars to consolidate domestic power.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001386#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Civil wars significantly increase the probability of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) between states, with the effect being similar in magnitude to the 'democratic peace' effect.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001386#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The increased risk of interstate conflict associated with civil wars is primarily driven by efforts to influence the civil war's outcome through intervention, externalization, and spillovers, rather than unrelated issues.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001386#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Empirical data shows that the annual rate of MID onsets in dyads with a COW civil war (4.3%) is more than double the rate in dyads without a civil war (2.1%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001386#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"States experiencing civil wars are more likely to both initiate MIDs against other states and be the targets of MIDs initiated by others.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001386#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'surplus' of MIDs associated with civil wars can be entirely explained by cases of intervention, externalization, and spillover, suggesting that opportunism and diversion do not significantly increase the net rate of international conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001386#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Externalization occurs when governments in civil wars conduct cross-border counter-insurgency raids or retaliatory attacks against neighbors supporting rebels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001386#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Intervention is driven by states with conflicting preferences over the civil war's outcome, motivated by proxy wars, regime disputes, irredentism, protection of ethnic kin, or tit-for-tat retaliation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001386#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Spillover effects, such as mass refugee migration and border fortification, can lead to the militarization of interstate relations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001386#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The research finds that regime transitions (democratization) by themselves do not promote interstate disputes in the absence of civil wars, contradicting the 'dangerous democratization' thesis.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001386#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Chad","Sudan","Israel","Lebanon","Vietnam","Iraq","Iran","Ethiopia","Eritrea","Pakistan","India","Serbia","Croatia","Bosnia and Herzegovina","Sri Lanka","Sierra Leone","Liberia","Libya","Myanmar","Thailand","Morocco","Algeria","Mauritania","Rwanda","Uganda","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Tanzania","Burundi","Haiti","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative analysis","case narrative analysis","dyadic analysis"]},{"id":"prio-001496","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001496","title":"It Takes Two: A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/3ebe4aa1-fbe6-4e22-ab92-2145cd56abe4/It Takes Two A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research argues that civil war dynamics are best understood as dyadic interactions between governments and specific rebel groups rather than through aggregate national characteristics. Using new data on non-state actors, the authors find that militarily strong rebels tend to fight shorter wars and are more likely to achieve decisive victories or concessions. Conversely, conflicts are prolonged when rebels are militarily weak but maintain territorial control in the periphery, as they can evade government repression without being strong enough to force a settlement. The study also indicates that the availability of legal political wings for rebels shortens conflict duration, and that the likelihood of government victory decreases significantly as a conflict persists.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001496#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Rebel groups with stronger military capabilities, including high mobilization capacity and arms procurement, are associated with shorter conflict durations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001496#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The presence of a legally recognized political wing for rebel groups increases the likelihood of conflict termination, independent of the state's overall level of democracy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001496#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The probability of a government victory declines precipitously over time; after approximately 50 days, government victory becomes less likely than a 'low activity' outcome.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001496#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Decisive outcomes—such as rebel victory, government victory, or formal agreements—are more frequent when rebels are militarily stronger than or at parity with the government.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001496#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Conflicts involving multiple non-state actors (multiple dyads) tend to last longer than those with a single rebel group.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001496#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Democratic institutions alone do not necessarily shorten civil wars; the data shows a negative effect of democracy on the hazard rate of conflict termination.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001496#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Coup attempts are significantly shorter in duration than other types of civil conflicts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001496#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Philippines","Colombia","Turkey","South Africa","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Chechnya","Papua New Guinea","Afghanistan"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["dyadic analysis","event history analysis","multinomial logit"]}]}