{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["disaggregated analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'disaggregated analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=disaggregated+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"sei-001865","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001865","title":"Climate damages in the FUND model: A disaggregated analysis","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2011-03","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-WorkingPaper-Ackerman-ClimateDamagesInTheFUNDmodel-2011.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The authors analyze the FUND model, which provided a significantly lower Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) estimate of $6 compared to other models like DICE ($28) and PAGE ($30). By disaggregating the model, they find that the low SCC is primarily driven by a large estimated net benefit in agriculture, largely due to CO2 fertilization. The paper identifies three technical issues in FUND's agricultural modeling: a risk of division by zero in the optimum temperature equation, the use of physically implausible temperature ranges in Monte Carlo analysis, and the use of truncated normal distributions that inflate the carbon fertilization effect. The authors argue that updating FUND with recent empirical research—which suggests smaller CO2 fertilization benefits and non-quadratic temperature impacts—would significantly increase the SCC estimate.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001865#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The FUND model's central estimate of the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) is $6 per ton of CO2, which is substantially lower than the $30 estimate from PAGE and $28 from DICE.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001865#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The $6 SCC estimate in FUND is composed of a $6 net benefit in agriculture, a $8 net cost in cooling and heating, and $4 of net costs across 12 other damage categories.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001865#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The net benefit attributed to agriculture in FUND is almost entirely driven by the CO2 fertilization effect, which is estimated to provide a net benefit exceeding $14 per ton of CO2 emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001865#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A mathematical flaw in the optimum temperature equation of FUND version 3.5 creates a risk of division by zero when the Monte Carlo parameter Topt equals 1.6, a value within 0.25 standard deviations of the mean for every region.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001865#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"FUND's Monte Carlo analysis for optimum temperatures uses confidence intervals that exceed physically plausible ranges; for example, the 95% confidence interval for South America ranges from 17°C below to almost 18°C above 1990 levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001865#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The use of truncated normal distributions for the carbon fertilization parameter in four regions (USA, Canada, Japan/Korea, and Southeast Asia) results in a true mean that is more than 50% higher than the reported mean of the unconstrained curve.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001865#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Recent empirical research contradicts FUND's quadratic temperature-yield relationship; studies on U.S. corn, soybeans, and cotton show slow increases up to an optimum temperature followed by rapid declines, rather than a symmetric quadratic curve.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001865#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementing simple fixes for the identified optimum temperature equation problems would increase the FUND SCC estimate by $10 to $12.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001865#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate modeling"],"geography_discussed":["United States","Canada","South America"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["model evaluation","disaggregated analysis","methodological critique"]},{"id":"prio-001396","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001396","title":"Foliage and fighting: Forest resources and the onset, duration, and location of civil war","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6d52ac8c-fdf1-4f90-90ad-c440d255164a/Foliage and Fighting Forest Resources and the Onset Duration and Location of Civil War.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study finds no general statistical relationship between forest resources and the onset or duration of civil wars at the national level. While some disaggregated results suggest that proximity to the coast may prolong conflicts in forested zones, the authors conclude that the perceived link between forests and conflict is largely driven by a few specific cases, such as Burma, rather than a global pattern.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001396#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"At the national level, there is no general relationship between forest resources and the onset of conflict; in fact, some data suggests that higher forest cover is associated with a lower risk of conflict onset.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001396#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"National-level analysis does not support the hypothesis that forest resources prolong civil wars; instead, conflicts in countries with forest or closed forest cover tend to be shorter.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001396#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The perceived positive correlation between forest exports and conflict onset is not a general pattern but is primarily driven by the case of Burma.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001396#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In disaggregated analysis of conflict zones, a shorter distance to the coast is associated with longer conflict duration in forested areas, likely because timber is more easily transported by sea.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001396#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Forest resources do not appear to act as a 'second choice' for rebels in the absence of more valuable lootable resources like oil and diamonds.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001396#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Analysis of the post-Cold War period suggests that forest cover may increase the opportunities to extract other conflict commodities, but it does not substitute for them.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001396#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The authors argue that previous claims by NGOs and international organizations (such as FAO and USAID) that forest conflict is a worldwide phenomenon are based on hasty generalizations from a few case studies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001396#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["deforestation"],"geography_discussed":["Myanmar","Cambodia","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Liberia","Ethiopia","Papua New Guinea","Senegal","Bangladesh"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["statistical analysis","comparative study","disaggregated analysis","survival analysis"]}]}