{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["crop modelling"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'crop modelling' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":3,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=crop+modelling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"iisd-001266","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-001266","title":"CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT FOR WATER AND AGRICULTURE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: FOCUS ON THE YAQUE DEL SUR BASIN","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2013-01","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/crm_dom_republic.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report identifies significant climate risks in the Yaque del Sur watershed, where high exposure to hurricanes, floods, and droughts intersects with high poverty and low adaptive capacity. Modelling suggests that by 2050, the annual water deficit could reach 519 million m3, threatening key crops like maize and tomatoes. While the Dominican Republic has established disaster risk and climate change frameworks, the report finds a lack of coordination between these structures and deficiencies in data sharing. Recommended priority actions include shifting to drought-resilient crops (sorghum and mangoes), increasing irrigation efficiency from 20% to 45%, and implementing payment for ecosystem services to promote reforestation in the upper watershed.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Yaque del Sur watershed is the third-largest in the Dominican Republic and faces extreme water stress, serving as one of the country's poorest regions where agriculture is a primary livelihood.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Observed climate trends since 1960 show an average temperature increase of approximately 0.45°C and a disputed rainfall decrease of about 4.5% per decade.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Water scarcity is projected to worsen significantly, with the model estimating a water deficit that could increase from 343 million m3 in 2010 to 519 million m3 by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Key crops in the region, specifically tomatoes, maize, and chilies, are expected to face increased water deficits of approximately 200 mm over their crop cycles due to rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Adaptive capacity in the Yaque del Sur watershed is insufficient due to low income, low education levels, and lack of land ownership, which hinders investment in sustainable farming.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a critical lack of formal coordination between the National System for Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Response (SNPMRD) and the agencies responsible for climate change adaptation, such as the Council for Climate Change and the Clean Development Mechanism (CNCCMDL).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate and hazard data in the Dominican Republic are patchy, inconsistent, and difficult to access because different agencies, such as INDRHI and the National Meteorological Office, do not openly share information.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Replacing maize with sorghum and plantains with mangoes in the lower watershed could reduce crop evapotranspiration by 16% for the entire watershed, saving approximately 87.2 million m3 of water in specific sub-catchment areas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Increasing irrigation efficiency from the current 20% to 45% could reduce agricultural water demand by approximately 250 million m3 annually, potentially reducing the projected 2050 water deficit by about 50% in large-scale irrigation areas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["water scarcity","agriculture","tropical cyclone","flood","drought","agroforestry","climate change adaptation","disaster risk reduction","crop yield","reforestation"],"geography_discussed":["Honduras","Nicaragua","Kenya","Niger","Peru","Uganda","Santa Cruz de Barahona"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["climate risk assessment","capacity assessment","participatory scenario development","hydrological modelling","crop modelling"]},{"id":"iisd-001268","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-001268","title":"CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE IN HONDURAS","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2013-01","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/crm_honduras.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report identifies Honduras as highly vulnerable to climate hazards, particularly droughts and tropical cyclones, which threaten the livelihoods of smallholder farmers and national development goals. It highlights significant gaps in climate data, institutional coordination, and adaptive capacity, while proposing a suite of local actions—such as improved water management and agroforestry—and national policy mainstreaming to reduce vulnerability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001268#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Honduras is exceptionally vulnerable to extreme weather; between 1990 and 2009, it was the third-most-affected country globally, with annual economic losses exceeding 3 percent of GDP.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001268#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate projections indicate a hotter and drier future for Honduras, with the most significant temperature increases and rainfall reductions expected in the south and west between June and August.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001268#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Smallholder agriculture is highly sensitive to climate change; modelling suggests that by 2050, average yields for maize could decrease by 12 percent and bean yields by 32 percent compared to 2000 levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001268#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Smallholders possess limited adaptive capacity due to low income, poor education, and high levels of land degradation, often relying on unsustainable coping mechanisms like deforestation or migration.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001268#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The agricultural sector faces massive economic shocks from climate events, exemplified by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which caused over US$2 billion in agricultural losses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001268#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Honduras lacks sufficient climate information and infrastructure, characterized by patchy weather data, a shortage of climatologists, and underdeveloped early-warning systems.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001268#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While Honduras has established coordinating bodies like COPECO for disaster risk and SERNA for climate change, there is a lack of institutional integration between disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001268#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate risk is not thoroughly mainstreamed into key sectoral policies; specifically, the 'Public Sector Strategy on Agriculture and Food' lacks specific objectives or actions to reduce climate risks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001268#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Priority risk management actions for smallholders include the establishment of micro-irrigation systems, the adoption of agroforestry, and the creation of multi-stakeholder watershed councils.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001268#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["smallholder","climate risk management","drought","tropical cyclone","flood","agroforestry","water management","agricultural irrigation","climate finance","disaster risk reduction","climate change adaptation","food security","land-use planning","early warning system"],"geography_discussed":["Nicaragua","Panama","Mexico","El Salvador"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["risk assessment","capacity assessment","policy analysis","crop modelling"]},{"id":"iisd-001275","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-001275","title":"CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE CROP PRODUCTION IN UGANDA: RAKAI AND KAPCHORWA DISTRICTS","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2013-01","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/crm_uganda.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the vulnerability of crop production in Uganda's Rakai and Kapchorwa districts, finding that increasing climate variability—specifically more frequent droughts and intense floods—threatens food security and livelihoods. While crop modelling suggests limited long-term yield declines for maize and beans by 2050, current climate hazards already disrupt farming calendars and reduce coffee quality. The study highlights that high poverty, land tenure issues, and HIV/AIDS exacerbate vulnerability, often leading to maladaptive coping strategies like wetland encroachment. It recommends a holistic approach combining small-scale irrigation, conservation agriculture, stress-resistant crop varieties, and improved meteorological information systems, supported by stronger national governance and coordination.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001275#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Uganda is experiencing a rise in temperature and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Temperatures have risen by 0.37° C per decade since 1960, and while long-term rainfall trends are unclear, floods and landslides are increasing.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001275#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate hazards significantly impact crop production in Rakai and Kapchorwa, leading to total crop failure for maize and beans, and reduced quality and quantity for coffee. Farmers report that they can no longer follow traditional farming calendars due to erratic seasons and irregular rainfall distribution.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001275#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Kapchorwa, farmers have observed the emergence of 'fly crops'—coffee flowering outside the normal cycle—which they associate with temperature and rainfall changes. These fly crops produce smaller beans and lower yields, reducing the crop's value.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001275#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Crop modelling using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) predicts that by 2050, maize production in Sanzara (Kapchorwa) may decrease by 8 to 10 percent and bean production by around 6 percent, whereas impacts in Rakai are expected to be negligible.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001275#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Investment in water management, specifically irrigation, is identified as a primary method to offset climate change impacts. Modelling indicates that irrigation could increase maize and bean production in Rakai and bean production in Kapchorwa beyond current levels by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001275#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Smallholder farmers employ various coping strategies, but some are maladaptive and increase long-term vulnerability. Examples include encroaching on wetlands to plant quick-maturing crops during droughts and illegal deforestation for charcoal and firewood sales.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001275#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Socio-economic factors significantly amplify climate vulnerability. In Rakai, high HIV/AIDS prevalence (12 percent, nearly double the national average) reduces available agricultural labour and limits the capacity of households to invest in adaptive technologies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001275#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Uganda possesses a framework of policies and institutions for climate risk management, including the Climate Change Unit (CCU) and the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), but these suffer from limited financial and human capacity and poor coordination.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001275#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a critical gap in the availability and dissemination of climate data. Many meteorological stations are non-functional, and national weather information is often provided in English, making it inaccessible to local farmers who rely on eroding indigenous knowledge.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001275#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate risk management","climate change adaptation","smallholder","drought","flood","agroforestry","food security","land tenure","disaster risk reduction"],"geography_discussed":["Karamoja","Lake Victoria","Mount Elgon"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["climate risk assessment","vulnerability analysis","crop modelling","policy review"]}]}