{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["counter-factual simulation"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'counter-factual simulation' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":1,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=counter-factual+simulation","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"clipolin-000474","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/clipolin-000474","title":"¿El crédito afecta a la deforestación? La evidencia de una política de crédito rural en la Amazonia brasileña","publisher":{"name":"Climate Policy Initiative","organization":"climate-policy-initiative"},"document_type":"executive summary","language":"es","date_published":"2013-01","source_url":"https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Does-Credit-Affect-Deforestation-Executive-Summary-Spanish.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study finds that Resolution 3.545, which conditioned rural credit on environmental compliance, effectively reduced deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon by restricting funds, particularly for large-scale cattle ranching. Between 2008 and 2011, the policy led to a reduction of approximately 2.9 billion BRL in rural credit, preventing the clearing of over 2,700 km² of forest. The impact was most significant in cattle-dominated municipalities, suggesting that ranchers are more credit-constrained and dependent on subsidized loans for land expansion than crop farmers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000474#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Resolution 3.545 caused a significant reduction in rural credit granting in the Amazon biome, with an estimated 2.9 billion BRL (1.4 million USD) in credit not contracted between 2008 and 2011. The majority of this reduction, 2.6 billion BRL (1.3 million USD), affected cattle contracts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000474#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The restriction of rural credit under Resolution 3.545 led to a decrease in deforestation, preventing the clearing of more than 2,700 km² of forest surface between 2009 and 2011, which represents a 15% reduction in deforestation for that period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000474#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The policy's impact on deforestation was primarily significant in municipalities where cattle ranching is the main economic activity; in contrast, deforestation in municipalities dominated by crop production was not affected by the resolution.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000474#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The resolution had a distributive effect on credit contracts, reducing the number of medium and large contracts for cattle ranchers while slightly increasing the number of small contracts. For crop production, there was a decrease in medium-sized contracts but no significant impact on small ones.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000474#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Large-scale producers were more affected by the credit restrictions than small-scale producers, partly because small producers, specifically beneficiaries of the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture (Pronaf), were subject to less strict requirements or total exemptions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000474#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study suggests that cattle ranchers are highly dependent on subsidized rural credit for production and deforestation activities, whereas crop farmers are less dependent or use subsidies to increase productivity rather than expand the production frontier.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000474#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["deforestation","environmental regulation","agricultural productivity","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Legal Amazon"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative analysis","counter-factual simulation"]}]}