{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["cost modelling"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'cost modelling' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=cost+modelling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"sei-001303","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001303","title":"Decarbonizing road freight systems","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2019-04","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/decarbonizing-road-freight-systems.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document identifies a strategic dilemma for Sweden: relying on biofuels to meet near-term 2030 goals may hinder the transition to electrification, which is viewed as the more cost-effective long-term strategy for 2045. While biofuels currently provide about 20% of truck energy and are expected to remain the primary mid-term solution, stakeholders anticipate a shift toward battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell, and electric road system technologies starting in the 2030s.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001303#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Sweden faces a policy dilemma between achieving its 2030 goal of reducing carbon emissions by 70% relative to 2010 and its 2045 goal of complete decarbonization, as the former relies heavily on biofuels while the latter requires electrification.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001303#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Electrification is considered the most affordable and cost-effective strategy for long-term decarbonization of road freight, with the potential to cover 40% to 50% of vehicle kilometres by 2045.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001303#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Biofuels are currently the primary driver of emission reductions in Swedish road freight, supplying approximately 20% of truck energy, and are expected to remain the most important solution until 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001303#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Different electrification technologies are suited to different transport segments: battery electric trucks are most competitive for short distances, electric road systems for dense long-distance motorways, and hydrogen fuel cells for the heaviest long-distance freight.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001303#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Stakeholders identified political leadership, policy coherence, and bioenergy policy as the most important yet most uncertain drivers for freight transportation strategies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001303#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Over-investing in biofuels to meet 2030 targets may risk slowing the development of long-term electrification strategies and increasing the eventual costs of reaching the 2045 goal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001303#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["decarbonization","biofuel","electrification","battery electric vehicle","fuel cell","climate policy","Transportation emission","energy transition"],"geography_discussed":["European Union"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","stakeholder analysis","cost modelling"]},{"id":"saiia-000707","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/saiia-000707","title":"Non-Tariff Barriers to Trade in Southern Africa: Towards a Measurement Approach","publisher":{"name":"South African Institute of International Affairs","organization":"south-african-institute-of-international-affairs"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2008","source_url":"https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/dttp_rep_21_pierides_2008.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report identifies and quantifies non-tariff barriers (NTBs) along the Durban–Gaborone corridor, finding that these barriers account for 24.4% of round-trip heavy vehicle running costs. The most significant costs are attributed to South African toll roads, including direct fees and indirect costs from fuel consumption and downtime. Other identified NTBs include Botswana user charges, infrastructure deterioration, weighbridge delays, harbour permit costs, and border clearance procedures. The study suggests that these NTBs contribute approximately 1.83% to the final cost of sales, which, when modelled against South Africa's GDP, represents a potential national impact of R31.61 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000707#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Toll roads in South Africa are the most significant non-tariff barrier on the Durban–Gaborone route, with total costs for a return trip amounting to R3,091.91. This includes direct toll fees of R1,454.00, indirect fuel costs of R910.36 due to stop-start operations, and downtime costs of R727.55.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000707#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Non-tariff barriers account for R5,645.36 of the total round-trip cost for an 8-axle articulated unit on the 2,100km Durban–Gaborone corridor, representing 24.4% of the total trip costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000707#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"When modelled using data from a Barloworld Logistics study, NTBs on this corridor translate to 1.83% of the final cost of sales. Applied to South Africa's GDP of R1,727.5 billion, this suggests a crude national impact of R31.61 billion annually.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000707#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Infrastructure deficiencies and maintenance issues act as NTBs, specifically the poor state of the road from Gaborone to Tlokweng, where a 16km trip can take 1.5 hours, and roadworks on the Durban–Tshwane/Pretoria corridor that add an estimated R485.03 in cost per trip.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000707#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Weighbridges create significant delays and costs; for example, waiting times at sites like Heidelberg and Mooi River can reach 1.5 hours, adding R727.55 to downtime costs. Additionally, the implementation of overloading controls at Groblers Bridge in 2005 led to a 59% drop in south-bound traffic as vehicles diverted to the Kopfontein/Tlokweng border.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000707#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Border post transactions contribute R681.59 to the total NTB costs, representing 12.07% of the total identified NTBs on the route. This includes downtime and fuel usage during customs, police, and immigration clearance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000707#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["road transport"],"geography_discussed":["Durban","Gaborone","City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality","Pretoria","Zimbabwe","Zambia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic impact assessment","cost modelling","case study"]}]}