{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["cost modeling"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'cost modeling' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":3,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=cost+modeling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"eninnova-000243","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/eninnova-000243","title":"ILLUSTRATIVE PATHWAYS TO 100 PERCENT ZERO CARBON POWER BY 2035 WITHOUT INCREASING CUSTOMER COSTS","publisher":{"name":"Energy Innovation","organization":"energy-innovation"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2020-09","source_url":"https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Pathways-to-100-Zero-Carbon-Power-by-2035-Without-Increasing-Customer-Costs.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document explores five supply-side pathways to reach 100 percent zero carbon power in the U.S. by 2035. It argues that while the final 10 percent of decarbonization is the most expensive, it can be achieved at a cost that keeps average wholesale rates similar to the 2020 average of 5.2 cents/kWh. The analyzed pathways include three green hydrogen options (fuel cells, turbine retrofits, and synthetic methane) and two carbon capture options (CCS retrofits and Direct Air Capture). The report highlights that green hydrogen production costs could drop to $1.50/kg by 2030 due to falling solar and wind costs and cheaper electrolyzers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000243#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The U.S. could achieve 100 percent zero carbon electricity by 2035 with average wholesale rates similar to 2020 levels (approximately 5.2 cents/kWh). To avoid increasing rates, the cost of decarbonizing the final 10 percent of the sector can raise overall wholesale costs by about 0.5 cents/kWh in 2035.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000243#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Green hydrogen production costs are projected to reach $1.50 per kilogram by 2030, driven by utility-scale solar PV costs declining to 1.5-2 cents/kWh and wind power to 2-2.5 cents/kWh, alongside electrolyzer costs dropping to $100-$300/kW.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000243#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Using automotive fuel cells for seasonal power generation is identified as a cost-effective option for the final 10 percent of clean power, with estimated generation rates of around 8.5 cents/kWh, leading to a total system wholesale rate of about 5 cents/kWh.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000243#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Retrofitting existing natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants to use green hydrogen is estimated to result in generation rates of approximately 11.7 cents/kWh for the final 10 percent, keeping total wholesale rates at about 5.3 cents/kWh.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000243#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The use of synthetic methane (produced from green hydrogen and CO2 from direct air capture) in existing gas infrastructure would result in generation rates of around 12.6 cents/kWh for the final 10 percent, with total wholesale rates of 5.4 cents/kWh.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000243#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Retrofitting existing NGCC capacity with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to cover the final 10 percent of generation would imply rates of around 11.4 cents/kWh, resulting in total wholesale rates of 5.3 cents/kWh.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000243#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Direct Air Capture (DAC) as an offset for remaining emissions is currently expensive, with today's costs of $393 per tonne of CO2 leading to total wholesale rates of 6 cents/kWh. However, if costs decline to $150/ton by 2030, total wholesale rates would be 5.2 cents/kWh.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000243#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["green hydrogen","electrolysis","fuel cell","carbon capture and storage","direct air capture","photovoltaics","wind power","energy storage"],"geography_discussed":["California","Texas","People's Republic of China","Europe"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["techno-economic assessment","cost modeling","pathway analysis"]},{"id":"rmi-000936","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/rmi-000936","title":"Reinventing Fire Electricity Sector Methodology","publisher":{"name":"RMI","organization":"rmi"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_Reinventing-Fire-Electricity-Sector-Methodology.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document describes the use of NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) and RMI's internal dispatch model to evaluate the technical feasibility and cost of four electricity scenarios: Maintain, Migrate, Renew, and Transform. It outlines spatial and temporal resolutions, generation cost assumptions based on learning curve theory, and specific modifications made to approximate distributed energy resources in the Transform case.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000936#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"RMI utilized two primary models for its analysis: the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) for bulk power system technical feasibility and cost, and an internally developed hourly, least-cost dispatch model to analyze variable resources and distributed generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000936#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The analysis evaluates four distinct scenarios for the U.S. electricity sector by 2050: 'Maintain' (business-as-usual), 'Migrate' (shift to nuclear and coal with carbon capture), 'Renew' (at least 80% centralized renewables), and 'Transform' (heavy reliance on distributed sources like rooftop solar and CHP).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000936#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The ReEDS model employs a highly discretized spatial structure, including 3 major grid interconnects, 13 NERC subregions, 21 reserve-sharing groups, 134 balancing authorities, and 356 resource regions for wind and concentrated solar power (CSP).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000936#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To project technology costs over 40 years, RMI applied learning curve theory, which posits that costs decrease as cumulative experience and deployment scale increase, creating a \"virtuous cycle\" of demand and production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000936#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For the Transform case, RMI exogenously specified several distributed resources to account for the distribution network's role: distributed wind (10% of total load by 2050), distributed solar (26% of total load by 2050), and industrial CHP (415 TWh annually by 2050).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000936#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The methodology incorporates specific financial adjustments, including a risk adjustment factor added to the cost of equity and debt for all coal-fired technologies to account for potential carbon regulation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000936#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The ReEDS model's temporal resolution segments electricity demand into 17 timeslices per year, covering different times of day across four seasons, plus a specific slice for the 40 highest demand hours of summer peak.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000936#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The RMI dispatch model follows a four-step process to determine the least-cost generation mix: applying energy efficiency measures, dispatching minimum generation and variable supply, utilizing hydropower and demand-shifting resources, and finally dispatching remaining dispatchable resources based on marginal cost.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000936#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["electric power industry","renewable energy","distributed generation","carbon capture and storage","energy efficiency","electric vehicle","smart grid","wind power","photovoltaics","geothermal energy","hydropower","energy storage","demand response","electric power transmission","Renewable portfolio standard"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["methodology","scenario analysis","cost modeling"]},{"id":"rmi-001081","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/rmi-001081","title":"Costing the Ultralite in Volume Production: Can Advanced Composite Bodies-in-White Be Affordable?","publisher":{"name":"RMI","organization":"rmi"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_T95-35_CostTheUltralite.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The paper investigates whether advanced composite bodies-in-white (BIW) can be affordable for mass production, using the GM Ultralite as a case study. It employs Technical Cost Modeling to compare a composite monocoque with a steel unibody across manufacturing, operation, and post-use phases. The analysis finds that while material costs for carbon fiber are high, they can be offset by significantly lower tooling and equipment costs, especially when using 'soft' composite tooling and rapid-curing technologies. The study concludes that composite BIWs can be cost-competitive with steel at carbon-fiber prices around $11/kg ($5/lb) with modest mass reductions, and are already more competitive in total lifecycle costs at production volumes below 75,000 units per year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001081#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Composite bodies-in-white (BIW) can achieve manufacturing cost parity with steel unibodies if carbon-fiber prices drop to approximately $11/kg ($5/lb), assuming a modest 15% mass reduction from the GM Ultralite base case.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001081#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"At production volumes below 75,000 units per year, the carbon-fiber BIW is more competitive in total lifecycle cost than the steel unibody, even without mass optimization and at a carbon-fiber price of $8/lb.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001081#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The high cost of carbon-fiber materials can be offset by substantial savings in capital investment, specifically in tooling and equipment, compared to the requirements for steel production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001081#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Among the modeled tooling options, 'soft' composite tooling combined with electron-beam curing is the most cost-effective for high-volume production due to reduced equipment and labor costs resulting from rapid cycle times.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001081#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The manufacturing cost of composite BIWs is primarily driven by material costs, making it highly sensitive to the price of carbon fiber but relatively insensitive to labor intensity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001081#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Increasing the production volume of carbon-fiber vehicles could trigger a positive feedback loop that lowers material costs; a 10% US market share for optimized ultralight cars could bring carbon-fiber prices down to $5/lb.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001081#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The GM Ultralite's original BIW mass of 190.5 kg is considered unnecessarily heavy; industry experts suggest a carbon BIW could reduce standard steel-unibody mass by up to 67%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001081#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In ultralight vehicles, the primary motivation for further mass reduction shifts from fuel economy to reducing the cost, mass, and complexity of the driveline and the amount of expensive reinforcing fibers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001081#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fuel efficiency","Lightweighting"],"geography_discussed":["World","United States","California","New Mexico"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cost modeling","sensitivity analysis","comparative study"]}]}