{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["climate scenario simulation"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'climate scenario simulation' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":3,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=climate+scenario+simulation","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"iisd-003462","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-003462","title":"Évaluation des actifs durables (SAVi) des infrastructures basées sur la nature dans le cadre d’un projet agroforestier à Welkenraedt (Belgique)","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"fr","date_published":"2021-04","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-04/savi-welkenraedt-belgium-fr.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report assesses a simulated agroforestry project in Welkenraedt, Belgium, covering approximately 100,000 m2 of hedges and trees. Using the SAVi tool and C3S climate data, the analysis demonstrates that the project is financially viable when environmental and social externalities are included. Key findings include estimated net benefits of 3.9 million euros over 20 years against an investment of 607,629 euros. The study highlights how agroforestry mitigates climate risks, such as reducing heat stress for livestock and preventing soil erosion and nutrient runoff, with benefits expected to increase under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003462#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The agroforestry project is estimated to generate net benefits of 3,900,000 euros over a 20-year period, based on an initial investment of 607,629 euros.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003462#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The project's financial viability increases significantly when externalities are included; the sustainable internal rate of return (TRI-D) is 27.85% and the sustainable net present value (VAN-D) is 1,430,000 euros.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003462#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change is expected to increase the economic appeal of agroforestry, as it mitigates negative effects such as flood damage, water pollution, and livestock heat stress.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003462#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The project is expected to increase agricultural yields through a windbreak effect, with estimated additional revenues between 942,747 euros (10% effect) and 1,826,572 euros (19.38% effect).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003462#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Spatial analysis using the InVEST model indicates that the project would lead to a 0.5% increase in carbon sequestration and a 1.896% improvement in habitat quality compared to a business-as-usual scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003462#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The project is estimated to reduce nitrogen exports by 377 kg and phosphorus exports by 102 kg in the surrounding watershed.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003462#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The integration of C3S data allows for the simulation of impacts under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, showing that increased precipitation and runoff will likely increase the value of agroforestry's water treatment and flood prevention services.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003462#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["agroforestry","nature-based solutions","climate change adaptation","carbon sequestration","ecosystem service","water management","soil erosion","heat stress","biodiversity","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","Scotland","Kenya","Canada"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cost-benefit analysis","financial modeling","spatial analysis","climate scenario simulation"]},{"id":"iisd-003140","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-003140","title":"Integration of Climate Data in the SAVi Irrigation Model","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2020-09","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2020-09/intregration-climate-data-savi-irrigation-model.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document details how climate indicators from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS)—including precipitation, temperature, and evaporation—are integrated into the SAVi Irrigation model. It provides a literature review on the impacts of temperature and precipitation on crop yields and water requirements, establishes the methodology for calculating net and total irrigation requirements, and presents simulation results for Johannesburg under the IPSL RCP8.5 scenario, projecting a 23% increase in net irrigation requirements by 2090-2100.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003140#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Global crop yields are negatively impacted by temperature increases, with the most significant average reductions occurring in maize (7.4%), wheat (6.0%), rice (3.2%), and soybean (3.1%) per degree-Celsius increase.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003140#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Temperature impacts on maize yields vary by country, with the highest reductions projected in the United States (-10.3 ± 5.4% per °C), followed by China (-8.0 ± 6.1% per °C), Brazil (-5.5 ± 4.5% per °C), and India (-5.2 ± 4.5% per °C).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003140#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the semi-arid Qazvin Plateau in Iran, projections under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios indicate that irrigation water requirements for winter wheat and barley will increase by 38%–79%, while fodder maize will see a slight increase of 0.7%–4.1%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003140#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Solar-powered irrigation systems experience a decrease in efficiency of 0.45% for every 1°C increase in temperature above an optimal threshold of 28°C.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003140#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The SAVi Irrigation model integrates four primary climate indicators from the CDS: irrigation requirements per hectare, total irrigation requirements per hectare (including conveyance loss), indicated surface water supply, and indicated groundwater supply.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003140#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Simulation results for Johannesburg using the IPSL RCP8.5 scenario project that net irrigation requirements per hectare will increase by 23% by the 2090-2100 decade compared to the 1980-1990 baseline, representing an absolute increase of 88 mm per year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003140#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Improving irrigation efficiency from 50% to 75% would result in a 63.5% net reduction in cumulative irrigation water use (reducing the difference between net and total requirements from 55,871 mm to 20,398 mm per hectare).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003140#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["crop yield","precipitation"],"geography_discussed":["Johannesburg","Iran","United States","People's Republic of China","Brazil","India","France","Russia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["literature review","system dynamics modeling","climate scenario simulation"]},{"id":"iisd-002021","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002021","title":"An Application of the Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) Methodology to Pelly's Lake and Stephenfield Reservoir, Manitoba, Canada","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2019-06","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-pellys-lake-stephenfield-canada-en.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report evaluates the financial value of nature-based infrastructure in Manitoba, Canada, specifically Pelly's Lake (a natural wetland) and Stephenfield Reservoir (a naturalized built reservoir). Using the SAVi methodology, it calculates the value of services such as irrigation, water storage, nutrient removal, and carbon sequestration. The analysis finds that both assets are significantly more cost-effective than equivalent grey infrastructure. For Stephenfield Reservoir, the cumulative discounted value of enabled economic activity is CAD 6.07 billion by 2050, while replacing its services with grey infrastructure would cost CAD 5.33 million in capital. For Pelly's Lake, ecosystem services are valued at approximately CAD 60 million, whereas equivalent grey infrastructure would cost CAD 36.99 million. The report argues that maintaining these natural assets optimizes value for money and supports climate adaptation against floods and droughts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002021#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Stephenfield Reservoir provides highly cost-effective irrigation and water storage services, enabling economic activity with a cumulative discounted value of CAD 6.07 billion by 2050, while its operation and management costs are only CAD 256,000.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002021#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Replacing the irrigation and water storage services of Stephenfield Reservoir with grey infrastructure would require CAD 5.33 million in capital costs and approximately CAD 300,000 in maintenance, both of which exceed the current reservoir's maintenance costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002021#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Pelly's Lake provides ecosystem services with a cumulative discounted valuation of approximately CAD 60 million between 2019 and 2050, with nutrient removal being the largest contributor.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002021#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The cost of building and operating grey infrastructure to replace the services provided by Pelly's Lake is estimated at CAD 36.99 million in the baseline scenario, with carbon sequestration replacement being the most expensive component at CAD 23.1 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002021#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under a climate change scenario, the value of flood protection provided by Pelly's Lake increases by 43.22% compared to the baseline, mitigating approximately CAD 320,200 in flood damages.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002021#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"If Pelly's Lake were utilized for future irrigation services, it could generate total benefits of CAD 15.7 million, including agriculture GDP, tax revenues, and discretionary income.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002021#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change is projected to increase precipitation variability and shift patterns in Manitoba, with increases in spring, autumn, and winter and decreases during summer months, which may increase flood risks and water demand for irrigation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002021#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["ecosystem service","carbon sequestration","agricultural irrigation","climate change adaptation","water management","biodiversity"],"geography_discussed":["Canada"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic valuation","comparative cost analysis","climate scenario simulation"]}]}