{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["climate scenario modeling"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'climate scenario modeling' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=climate+scenario+modeling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"iisd-000646","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-000646","title":"Sustainable Asset Valuation of Nature-Based Flood Mitigation Infrastructure in Drakenstein, South Africa","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025-02-12","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/flood-mitigation-infrastructure-drakenstein-south-africa","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The analysis finds that investing in nature-based infrastructure (NBI) in Drakenstein, South Africa, can reduce flood damages by up to USD 36 million against costs of USD 8.65 million over 25 years. The study indicates a benefit-cost ratio of up to 5:1 (ZAR 5 return for every ZAR 1 invested), with net benefits reaching ZAR 600 million (USD 34.2 million). These benefits include avoided flood damages, job creation, and improved mental health, with NBI proving most valuable in climate scenarios characterized by frequent and intense floods.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000646#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Nature-based infrastructure (NBI) in Drakenstein can reduce flood damages by up to USD 36 million, which significantly exceeds the projected costs of USD 8.65 million over a 25-year period. The value of NBI increases in climate scenarios featuring intense and frequent floods.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000646#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The investment in NBI offers a high return on investment, with a potential return of between ZAR 1 and ZAR 5 for every ZAR 1 invested over 25 years, resulting in net benefits of up to ZAR 600 million (USD 34.2 million).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000646#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The proposed NBI scenario covers 214 hectares and includes the restoration of riverbanks and floodplains, the creation of constructed wetlands, and the development of urban green spaces. This approach aims to address flooding caused by extreme rainfall, human encroachment on floodplains, and degraded river and wetland systems.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000646#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Beyond flood mitigation, NBI provides socio-economic and environmental co-benefits, including the creation of jobs, the value of recreational areas, and the reduction of mental health impacts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000646#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Flood risk management","climate resilience","ecosystem service","urban green space"],"geography_discussed":["Western Cape","Paarl","Berg River"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cost-benefit analysis","climate scenario modeling"]},{"id":"sei-002333","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002333","title":"FLORIDA AND CLIMATE CHANGE","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2007-11","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/inaction_florida.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that the cost of inaction regarding climate change for Florida is immense, projecting annual costs of $345 billion by 2100 across four major categories: tourism, hurricane damages, residential real estate, and electricity. Under a 'business-as-usual' scenario, Florida faces a 10°F temperature increase and 45 inches of sea-level rise by 2100, which would inundate 9% of its land area and severely disrupt key industries like agriculture and fisheries. The authors contrast this with a 'rapid stabilization' case, where immediate global emissions reductions limit warming to 2°F and sea-level rise to 7 inches by 2100.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002333#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The annual costs of inaction for four primary categories—tourism revenue, hurricane damages, residential real estate, and electricity costs—are projected to reach $92 billion by 2050 and $345 billion by 2100, representing 2.8% and 5.0% of the state's projected Gross State Product, respectively.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002333#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the 'business-as-usual' scenario, Florida's average annual temperature is projected to increase by 5°F by 2050 and 10°F by 2100, while sea levels are projected to rise by 23 inches by 2050 and 45 inches by 2100.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002333#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A sea-level rise of 27 inches, projected to occur around 2060 under the business-as-usual case, would create a 'vulnerable zone' covering 9% of Florida's land area (approximately 4,700 square miles), affecting 1.5 million people.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002333#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'vulnerable zone' associated with 27 inches of sea-level rise includes residential real estate valued at over $130 billion, as well as critical infrastructure such as 2 nuclear reactors, 68 hospitals, 74 airports, and 334 public schools.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002333#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under the business-as-usual scenario, tourism revenue losses are projected to be $40 billion annually by 2050 and $167 billion annually by 2100 compared to the rapid stabilization case.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002333#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Hurricane damages are expected to increase significantly in the business-as-usual case due to higher storm intensity and sea-level rise, with the annual cost of inaction reaching $25 billion by 2050 and $104 billion by 2100.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002333#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The business-as-usual scenario is projected to cause an average of 19 additional hurricane-related deaths per year by 2050 and 37 additional deaths per year by 2100 compared to the rapid stabilization case.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002333#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Electricity costs will rise due to increased air-conditioning demand and reduced efficiency of power plants and transmission lines in higher temperatures; the annual cost of inaction is estimated at $5 billion in 2050 and $18 billion in 2100.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002333#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agriculture faces severe threats from saltwater intrusion, increased irrigation needs, and temperature shifts; for example, citrus and sugarcane require approximately 5% and 7% more water, respectively, for each degree Fahrenheit of mean temperature increase.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002333#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Everglades are particularly vulnerable, with sea-level rise potentially causing water to encroach 12 to 24 miles inland, which would inundate the lower Everglades and destroy critical nurseries for fish and wildlife.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002333#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ocean acidification and warming are projected to cause widespread coral bleaching and reduce calcification rates, threatening the marine ecosystems that support Florida's fisheries and diving tourism.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002333#insight-11","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'rapid stabilization' scenario requires global emissions to be reduced by half by 2050 and to one-quarter by 2100, with U.S. emissions specifically needing to decline by 80% by 2050 to keep global warming below 2°F.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002333#insight-12","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","sea level rise","ocean acidification","coral bleaching","climate finance","tourism industry","agriculture","electricity generation","real property","water resource","biodiversity loss","climate change adaptation","climate change mitigation"],"geography_discussed":["World","United States","Miami-Dade County","Monroe County"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic impact assessment","climate scenario modeling","vulnerability analysis"]}]}