{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["climate scenario analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'climate scenario analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":5,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=climate+scenario+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"africac-000004","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/africac-000004","title":"From Climate Risk to Resilience: Unpacking the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Mozambique","publisher":{"name":"African Climate Foundation","organization":"african-climate-foundation"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2024-03-07","source_url":"https://africanclimatefoundation.org/research-article/from-climate-risk-to-resilience/from-climate-risk-to-resilience-unpacking-the-economic-impacts-of-climate-change-in-mozambique/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes Mozambique's climate risk and resilience across four areas: projected changes to the country's climate profile, implications for key economic sectors and the broader economy (including fiscal and trade impacts), an overview of existing and planned government adaptation measures, and strategic recommendations for funding mobilization.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000004#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[],"climate_tags":["climate change","climate change adaptation","climate risk","climate resilience"],"geography_discussed":["Kenya","Malawi","Zambia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic analysis","climate scenario analysis","policy review"]},{"id":"africac-000011","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/africac-000011","title":"FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN MALAWI","publisher":{"name":"African Climate Foundation","organization":"african-climate-foundation"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2023-11","source_url":"https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800833-ACF-Malawi-country-note-05A.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Climate change in Malawi is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of cyclones, floods, and droughts, significantly impacting the agriculture and road infrastructure sectors. While the government has established various policy frameworks and a National Climate Change Fund, mobilization of funding remains constrained by institutional capacity gaps and macroeconomic vulnerabilities, including unsustainable public debt. The report argues that an agriculture-led growth strategy remains the most effective path for poverty reduction despite climate risks and recommends a structured investment platform to translate adaptation plans into bankable projects.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000011#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Climate change is not expected to fundamentally change Malawi's climate profile but will likely increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as cyclones, floods, and droughts due to higher precipitation uncertainty.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000011#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The agriculture sector is highly vulnerable because it represents one-third of the economy, employs over 70 percent of the workforce, and relies on rainfed production for about 80 percent of the population.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000011#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of low-yield events for key crops; for example, a 1-in-20 low yield event for maize could occur every 8.0 years by the 2060s under a high emissions scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000011#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Road infrastructure is a primary impact channel, with flooding increasing maintenance costs for the 84 percent of the network that is unpaved; without adaptation, annual repair costs could average US$165 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000011#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The hydropower sector is geographically concentrated, with over 90 percent of capacity on the Shire River, making it susceptible to extreme events; Tropical Storm Ana reduced power generation capacity by 32 percent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000011#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Malawi's fiscal position is unsustainable, with public debt reaching 76.6 percent of GDP in 2022 and the IMF assessing external and overall public debt as \"in distress\" as of July 2022.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000011#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite having policy frameworks like the \"Malawi 2063\" vision and a National Adaptation Plan Framework, the government struggles to mobilize funding due to a lack of bankable project proposals and complex climate finance architectures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000011#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Analysis suggests that an agriculture-led growth strategy (AFS) is expected to result in better poverty and undernourishment outcomes than a non-agriculture-led strategy, even when accounting for climate-associated yield uncertainty.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000011#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change adaptation","climate resilience","agriculture","hydropower","climate finance","food security","soil erosion","disaster risk reduction","Climate-smart agriculture","national adaptation plan","Nationally Determined Contributions"],"geography_discussed":["Mozambique","South Africa","Zambia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic impact assessment","policy review","climate scenario analysis"]},{"id":"africac-000040","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/africac-000040","title":"FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN KENYA","publisher":{"name":"African Climate Foundation","organization":"african-climate-foundation"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2023-11","source_url":"https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800832-ACF-Kenya-country-note-04.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Kenya is highly vulnerable to climate change, with adverse events causing annual socioeconomic losses of 3–5 percent of GDP between 2010 and 2020. While some crop yields may increase due to CO2 fertilization and higher elevations, the livestock sector faces significant risks from heat stress and drought, particularly in arid and semi-arid lands. The report highlights critical vulnerabilities in hydropower, tourism, and coastal infrastructure, while noting that the government is a regional leader in policy but struggles with financing and subnational coordination. Recommendations focus on granular climate scenario analysis, diversifying agriculture, improving agricultural insurance, and mobilizing large-scale funding through ARIPs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000040#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Between 2010 and 2020, climate change-related events caused annual socioeconomic losses in Kenya estimated at 3–5 percent of total GDP.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000040#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate projections for Kenya show high uncertainty regarding precipitation, but temperatures are expected to rise, with some models predicting an increase of over 1.5°C by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000040#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The agriculture sector is highly vulnerable because 98 percent of its production is rainfed, making it susceptible to temperature and rainfall variations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000040#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While national average yields for maize, sorghum, wheat, and rice are projected to increase by 2050 due to CO2 fertilization and higher elevation cropping, heat stress and droughts remain significant risks to food security.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000040#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The livestock subsector is projected to decline by 6 percent between 2019 and 2050, with pastoral communities in arid and semi-arid lands being disproportionately affected by heat stress and water scarcity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000040#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Sea level rise threatens coastal infrastructure and ecosystems; a 30 cm rise could inundate 17 percent (4,600 hectares) of Mombasa, impacting the region's largest international seaport.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000040#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Hydropower, which provided about one-third of Kenya's electricity generation in 2021, is at risk from severe droughts that can reduce production by up to 40 percent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000040#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Kenya's tourism industry is threatened by the degradation of ecosystems, including the potential loss of suitability for 13 percent of species in the Maasai Mara National Reserve by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000040#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite being a regional leader in climate policy, Kenya faces challenges in adaptation due to a heavy reliance on international finance, weak institutional coordination, and gaps in monitoring and evaluation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000040#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The green bond market in Kenya has seen limited success, with only one issuance by Acorn Holdings in 2019, hindered by the lack of a national green taxonomy and financial sector vulnerabilities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000040#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agricultural insurance uptake is below 1 percent, limiting its effectiveness as a safety net for farmers against extreme weather events.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000040#insight-11","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change adaptation","climate resilience","agriculture","livestock","hydropower","tourism industry","sea level rise","water scarcity","climate finance","climate bond","Climate-smart agriculture","food security","disaster risk reduction","early warning system","Nationally Determined Contributions","national adaptation plan"],"geography_discussed":["Mount Kenya","Tana River Basin","Maasai Mara National Reserve","Lake Victoria","Uganda","Tanzania"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic impact assessment","climate scenario analysis","policy review"]},{"id":"africac-000041","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/africac-000041","title":"FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ZAMBIA","publisher":{"name":"African Climate Foundation","organization":"african-climate-foundation"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2023-11","source_url":"https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800835-ACF-Zambia-country-note-04.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Climate change is projected to increase temperatures and decrease rainfall in Zambia, particularly in the south and west, threatening food security, energy stability, and transport infrastructure. The report highlights that maize yields could drop by over 9% by 2050 under high emissions scenarios, and hydropower generation—which provides 85% of installed capacity—is highly vulnerable to drought. Road infrastructure is also at risk, with flooding in Lusaka and the north potentially disrupting trade and supply chains. While the Zambian government has integrated climate goals into its Eighth National Development Plan and is developing a National Adaptation Plan, significant barriers remain, including severe debt distress and limited technical capacity. The report recommends a programmatic approach to funding via ARIPs to mobilize the estimated US$50 billion needed by 2030, emphasizing region-specific agricultural adaptation and the diversification of the energy mix.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000041#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Zambia is projected to experience rising average temperatures and declining rainfall, especially in southern and western regions, which will likely increase the frequency and intensity of droughts and floods.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000041#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Water availability in Zambia is expected to decrease by approximately 13% by 2100, with the Zambezi, Kafue, and Luangwa River Basins being the most adversely affected.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000041#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agriculture is highly vulnerable, with maize yields projected to decrease by more than 9% by 2050 under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000041#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The livestock subsector faces increased risks from pests, diseases, and reduced forage due to drought, with the proportion of affected livestock projected to rise from 21% to 34% under high emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000041#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Zambia's road network is highly susceptible to climate damage, particularly in the north and in Lusaka Province; the country faces a potential opportunity cost of 11% in the median climate scenario if adaptation measures are not taken.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000041#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The energy sector is extremely vulnerable due to an 85% reliance on hydropower, with projected hydropower production potential decreases of 9% in the 2020s, 18% in the 2050s, and 28% in the 2080s under a medium emissions scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000041#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate risks to Zambia's energy sector could disrupt global green technology transitions because Zambia is the world's top exporter of raw copper, a critical component for electric vehicles and solar photovoltaics.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000041#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Zambia's fiscal position, characterized by high debt distress (above 104% of GDP) and a 'default' credit rating, severely limits its capacity to fund climate adaptation and resilience measures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000041#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The government is working toward a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and has integrated climate actions into the Eighth National Development Plan (8NDP), but faces challenges in cross-sectoral coordination and technical capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000041#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Zambia's total climate finance need is estimated at US$50 billion through 2030, with adaptation specifically requiring US$14.9 billion for the 2023–2030 period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000041#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","climate change adaptation","climate resilience","agriculture","hydropower","renewable energy","climate finance","climate bond","carbon emission trading","food security","energy transition","national adaptation plan","Nationally Determined Contributions","Climate-smart agriculture"],"geography_discussed":["Lusaka Province","Southern Province","Western Province","Malawi","Mozambique","Kenya","People's Republic of China"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic impact assessment","policy review","climate scenario analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-003461","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-003461","title":"Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) of Agroforestry Nature-Based Infrastructure in Welkenraedt (Belgium)","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2021-04","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-04/savi-welkenraedt-belgium-en.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report assesses the economic and environmental viability of an agroforestry project in Welkenraedt, Belgium, using the SAVi methodology and Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS) data. The analysis finds that the project, involving approximately 100,000 m2 of hedges and trees, generates net benefits of EUR 3.9 million over 20 years against an investment cost of EUR 607,629. Key benefits include increased agricultural yields via windbreak effects, reduced heat stress for livestock, and enhanced ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and nutrient removal. Climate projections under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 suggest that increasing temperatures and precipitation will make the project more economically attractive by increasing the value of avoided flood damage and water treatment costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003461#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The agroforestry project in Welkenraedt is estimated to generate net benefits of EUR 3.9 million over a 20-year period, with total investment and operation and management (O&M) costs amounting to EUR 607,629.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003461#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The project's financial viability varies significantly based on the valuation approach: while it is hardly investment-worthy based only on fodder and milk production (IRR of 1.22%), the sustainable internal rate of return (S-IRR) rises to 27.85% when all revenues and externalities are included.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003461#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change is expected to increase the economic attractiveness of the project. Higher temperatures will enhance the value of the cooling effect on livestock, and increased precipitation and runoff will increase the value of avoided wastewater treatment and flood damage costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003461#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The windbreaker effect of tree rows is a major revenue driver, contributing an estimated EUR 1,384,659 in additional agricultural production revenues.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003461#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Spatially explicit analysis using the InVEST model indicates that the project will lead to a 0.5% increase in carbon sequestration and a 1.8% improvement in habitat quality in the region.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003461#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The project is expected to reduce nutrient exports in the watershed, specifically decreasing nitrogen exports by 377 kg and phosphorus exports by 102 kg compared to a business-as-usual scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003461#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The analysis identifies several other direct revenue streams, including wood pellet production (EUR 348,976), tourism and landscape value (EUR 832,705), and fodder production (EUR 635,891) over 20 years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003461#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["agroforestry","climate change adaptation","carbon sequestration","ecosystem service","water quality","soil erosion","biodiversity","climate finance","Flood mitigation"],"geography_discussed":["Land of Herve","Scotland","Kenya","Canada"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cost-benefit analysis","financial modeling","spatial analysis","climate scenario analysis"]}]}