{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["causal inference"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'causal inference' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":8,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=causal+inference","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"prio-001198","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001198","title":"Airstrike-Only Military Interventions and Their Civilian Consequences","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2022","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1e1abfaf-4518-416b-ba01-ccf22e7115d0/Airstrike-only Military Interventions and Their Civilian Consequences.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research examines how NATO's airstrike-only intervention during the Kosovo War affected Albanian civilian victimization. Using a novel dataset (Kosovo Airstrike Locator) and the Kosovo Memory Book, the author finds that while the overall introduction of airstrikes coincided with a dramatic increase in civilian deaths, recently struck municipalities actually saw a decrease in expected victimization. However, this direct effect was offset by indirect consequences: the shift in strike strategy to target military units intensified the violence following battles and KLA soldier deaths, and shifted the geography of victimization toward more populous areas and those with lower Albanian population percentages. The author concludes that airstrike-only interventions can intensify conflict and increase civilian vulnerability, suggesting they should not be the primary tool for protecting civilians without a credible ground-force threat.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001198#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The introduction of NATO airstrikes was associated with a significant increase in the overall level of Albanian civilian victimization. In the period immediately preceding the strikes, an average of 12.5 Albanian civilians were killed per day, which rose to nearly 200 per day immediately following the intervention.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001198#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"At a municipal level, the occurrence of airstrikes was significantly associated with a decrease in the expected count of Albanian civilian victimization in the short term. In the late war period, each additional strike-day in a 5-day window decreased the expected count of victims by 17.46%, and in a 7-day window by 16.47%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001198#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The shift in NATO's strike strategy on April 23, 1999, to directly target Yugoslav military units, was associated with an increase in the overall levels of Albanian civilian victimization.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001198#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the late war period, the relationship between a municipality's ethnic composition and victimization shifted: municipalities with a higher percentage of Albanians experienced significantly lower levels of Albanian civilian victimization.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001198#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The occurrence of battles and KLA soldier deaths had a stronger positive association with civilian victimization in the late war period than in the early war. For example, a battle at time T was associated with a 315% increase in victimization in the late war, compared to 254% in the early war.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001198#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study found no significant evidence to support the 'logic of retaliation' regarding Yugoslav soldier deaths, meaning that Yugoslav troop losses did not have a statistically significant relationship with increased Albanian civilian victimization in either the early or late war periods.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001198#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Serbia","Albania","North Macedonia","France"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative","spatiotemporal","causal inference"]},{"id":"prio-001533","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001533","title":"Rainfall Variability and Violent, State-Based Conflict","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/52a825cc-c6c8-4c4e-9d38-a3e84afd59af/MA_thesis_Mjelva_2020.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research examines how the effect of anomalous rainfall (excess and scarce) on violent, state-based conflict varies based on societal vulnerability factors. Using a causal forest model on global grid-cell data, the author finds that while rainfall variability generally has a small effect on conflict, this effect is context-specific. Scarce rainfall is more likely to increase conflict risk in communities with high agricultural employment and poor governance (low SHDI and GDP). Excess rainfall's effect is more complex, showing higher risk in areas with high population density, low globalization, low democracy, and low GDP, but contrary to expectations, it showed smaller effects in areas with high political exclusion or greater distance to the capital.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001533#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The effect of rainfall variability on violent, state-based conflict is generally small across all studied contexts, but it is confirmed to be context-specific and dependent on the vulnerability of the community.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001533#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Scarce rainfall is most likely to increase the probability of violent, state-based conflict in communities characterized by high agricultural employment and low levels of good governance, specifically low Subnational Human Development Index (SHDI) and GDP.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001533#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The factors that modify the relationship between scarce rainfall and conflict differ from those that modify the relationship between excess rainfall and conflict, suggesting they operate through separate mechanisms.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001533#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Contrary to theoretical expectations, high levels of political exclusion and greater distance to the capital were associated with smaller effects of excess rainfall on conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001533#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The analysis identified that some vulnerability factors, such as temperature and the prevalence of non-state conflict, did not have a significant impact on the treatment effect in either the scarce or excess rainfall models.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001533#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study encountered a significant violation of the overlap assumption, where propensity scores for receiving the treatment (SPEI3) were heavily skewed toward zero, necessitating the exclusion of a large portion of the data to avoid biased estimates.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001533#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["rain","drought","flood","climate change adaptation"],"geography_discussed":["Ethiopia","Syria","sub-Saharan Africa","South Asia","Southeast Asia","Latin America","Afghanistan"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["causal forest","machine learning","heterogeneous treatment effects","causal inference","non-parametric analysis"]},{"id":"clipolin-000751","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/clipolin-000751","title":"THE IMPACT OF RURAL CREDIT ON BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURE AND THE ENVIRONMENT","publisher":{"name":"Climate Policy Initiative","organization":"climate-policy-initiative"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2019-03","source_url":"https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/PB-Impact-Rural-Credit-Brazilian-Agriculture-EN-17Abr.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document argues that rural credit is a central agricultural policy in Brazil that significantly boosts productivity and supports environmental conservation by shifting land use from pastures to croplands, thereby increasing forest areas. It highlights that a 1% increase in rural credit leads to measurable gains in municipal crop production, agricultural GDP, and cropland productivity. However, the brief notes that the current distribution system is complex and fragmented, creating inconsistencies in credit access. It recommends using rural credit to reconcile production and conservation goals and suggests that any policy reforms be introduced gradually to avoid disrupting agricultural output.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000751#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Rural credit is the central agricultural policy in Brazil, accounting for approximately 40% of total agricultural production, which was roughly R$225 billion (US$61 billion) in the 2018-2019 agricultural year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000751#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A 1% increase in rural credit lending results in specific economic gains: a 0.29% increase in municipal crop production, a 0.17% increase in agricultural GDP, a 0.05% increase in total municipal GDP, a 0.21% increase in cropland productivity, and a 0.22% increase in rural worker crop productivity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000751#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Increased rural credit supply positively impacts land use by shifting production from pastures to croplands and increasing forest areas; specifically, a 1% increase in credit correlates with a 0.08% increase in crop area, a 0.11% decrease in pasture, and a 0.02% increase in forest areas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000751#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Brazilian rural credit system is governed by two primary plans: the Agricultural Plan (PAP) for medium and large producers, and the National Plan for Family Farming (PRONAF) for small producers. In 2018-2019, PAP included R$194 billion (US$52 billion) and PRONAF included R$31 billion (US$8.4 billion).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000751#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The current rural credit distribution system is described as outdated, fragmented, and highly complex, which distorts credit access and creates uncertainty for producers based on the geographic location of bank branches and cooperatives.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000751#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["agricultural productivity","land use","deforestation","bioenergy"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["causal inference","econometric analysis"]},{"id":"clipolin-000752","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/clipolin-000752","title":"O IMPACTO DO CRÉDITO RURAL NA AGRICULTURA BRASILEIRA E NO MEIO AMBIENTE","publisher":{"name":"Climate Policy Initiative","organization":"climate-policy-initiative"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"pt","date_published":"2019-03","source_url":"https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/PB-Impact-Rural-Credit-Brazilian-Agriculture-PT-17Abr-1.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document presents findings from the INPUT project by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI), demonstrating that rural credit in Brazil significantly boosts agricultural productivity and municipal GDP while promoting a shift from pasture to crop land, which correlates with an increase in forested areas. It argues that rural credit can be a tool to balance economic growth with environmental protection, though it notes that the current distribution system is complex and fragmented.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000752#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Rural credit is the primary source of funding for Brazilian agribusiness, accounting for approximately 40% of total agricultural production, which totaled about R$ 225 billion in the 2018-2019 crop year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000752#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Analysis of data from 2002 to 2015 indicates that a 1% increase in rural credit loans leads to specific economic gains: a 0.29% increase in municipal agricultural production, a 0.17% increase in agricultural GDP, a 0.05% increase in total municipal GDP, a 0.21% increase in agricultural productivity, and a 0.22% increase in rural worker productivity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000752#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Increased rural credit positively affects land use by shifting land from less productive pastures to agricultural crops and increasing forest areas. Specifically, a 1% increase in credit results in a 0.08% increase in agricultural areas, a 0.11% reduction in pasture areas, and a 0.02% increase in forest areas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000752#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Brazilian rural credit system is characterized by a complex and fragmented distribution model based on a 1960s design, which creates distortions in access and financing conditions and is often determined by the geographic location of bank branches rather than agricultural potential.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000752#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The document recommends that rural credit be used to reconcile production with conservation goals, as productivity gains do not need to be linked to area expansion, and suggests that any policy changes be introduced gradually to maintain stability for financially constrained producers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000752#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["agricultural productivity","land use","deforestation","forest conservation","low-carbon economy"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["causal inference","economic impact assessment","policy analysis"]},{"id":"prio-000366","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-000366","title":"Climate, development, and conflict: Learning from the past and mapping uncertainties of the future","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2018","source_url":"https://www.prio.org/publications/10986","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document argues that the relationship between climate shocks and violent conflict is context-dependent, primarily affecting communal conflicts in resource-scarce areas with poor government services. It suggests that maintaining socio-economic development in poor, conflict-prone states is essential to minimizing the future impact of climate change on violent conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-000366#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The effects of climate shocks on conflict are not uniform but are context dependent, specifically manifesting in communal conflicts within resource-scarce regions that lack government services and where conflicts relate to climate-sensitive resources.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-000366#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Continuing the positive socio-economic development seen in many poor and conflict-affected states over the last 20 years is critical for keeping the influence of climate change and climate shocks on violent conflict at the low levels observed in recent decades.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-000366#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["causal inference","methodological review"]},{"id":"prio-001349","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001349","title":"Educating Demonstrators: Education and Mass Protest in Africa","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2017-02-20","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/4cc90966-4394-4e29-859e-36aeb1d0bb9d/Education_SISTEVERSJON.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study finds a positive correlation between education and protest activity across 42 African countries, suggesting that education increases both the motivation to challenge authoritarian regimes and the organizational capacity to stage protests.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001349#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Higher local education levels are positively associated with an increased frequency of mass protest events. Simulation suggests that increasing average education from no education to completed secondary education raises the probability of protest in a given year from approximately 2% to 8%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001349#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The positive relationship between education and protest is particularly strong in autocratic regimes, supporting the theory that education enhances ideological preferences for democracy and accountable governance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001349#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Education increases the capacity for collective action by improving communication skills, fostering cooperation, stimulating social networks (specifically 'weak ties'), and creating inter-group solidarity through shared frameworks of reference.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001349#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study found no evidence that the 'unmet-expectations' or 'J-curve' theory—where education combined with high unemployment spurs protest—is a primary driver in this context.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001349#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Using the historical location of colonial-era Christian missions as an instrumental variable to address endogeneity, the researchers confirmed a causal effect of education on increasing protest incidence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001349#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Analysis of non-government protests indicates that education increases the likelihood of protests even when they are not aimed at the state, suggesting that education enhances general organizational opportunities rather than just anti-government grievances.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001349#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Kenya","Zimbabwe","Senegal","Nigeria","South Africa","Lagos","Mali"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["causal inference","sub-national analysis","instrumental variable regression"]},{"id":"prio-001222","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001222","title":"Autocratic Elections: Stabilizing Tool or Force for Change?","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2015-12-09","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/4929100f-0801-4a88-9ee1-e8fdcd3e65e2/Autocratic Elections Stabilizing Tool or Force for Change.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research argues that autocratic elections create a temporal trade-off: they increase the immediate risk of regime failure by serving as focal points for opposition collective action, but enhance long-term stability by improving the regime's capacity for co-optation, repression, and legitimacy. Using data from 115 countries, the authors find that this pattern is most pronounced in multi-party contested elections. The study employs Instrumental Variables Probit models to suggest that the short-term destabilizing effect is causal and not merely a result of strategic timing by autocrats.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001222#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Autocratic elections increase the probability of regime failure in the short term, particularly immediately following the election event.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001222#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the medium-to-long term, the institution of elections serves to stabilize autocratic regimes, increasing their survival probability after the initial turbulent period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001222#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The destabilizing and stabilizing effects are significantly more pronounced in multi-party contested elections than in uncontested ones.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001222#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Elections act as short-term destabilizers by providing 'focal points' that help opposition actors overcome collective action problems and coordinate protests or coups.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001222#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Long-term stability is achieved through mechanisms such as gathering information on opposition strongholds, building organizational capacity, and increasing domestic and international legitimacy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001222#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) estimate that the long-term stabilizing effects typically begin to dominate the short-term risks after approximately six years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001222#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Using Instrumental Variables (IV) to account for endogeneity, the study finds a causal link between holding an election and an increased risk of regime failure in that same year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001222#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The research indicates that both executive and legislative elections exhibit similar patterns of short-term instability and long-term stability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001222#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Mexico","Guatemala"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative analysis","comparative political analysis","causal inference"]},{"id":"clipolin-000559","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/clipolin-000559","title":"Getting Greener by Going Black: The Priority Municipalities in Brazil","publisher":{"name":"Climate Policy Initiative","organization":"climate-policy-initiative"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2014-08","source_url":"https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Getting-Greener-by-Going-Black-Technical-Paper.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research finds that the blacklisting of priority municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon significantly reduced deforestation, avoiding the clearing of approximately 11,218 to 11,396 km2 of forest from 2008 to 2011. The authors conclude that this effect was primarily driven by intensified monitoring and law enforcement—specifically an increase in the number of fines—rather than economic sanctions. The study demonstrates that the policy had no significant negative impact on agricultural GDP, crop production, or rural credit concessions, suggesting that forest protection in the region does not necessarily constrain agricultural production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000559#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Priority Municipalities (MPs) policy significantly reduced deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, avoiding the clearing of 11,218 km2 of forest area from 2008 through 2011.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000559#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The reduction in deforestation was primarily driven by the monitoring and law enforcement channel, as the effect of the MPs policy disappears when controlling for the number of fines applied by Ibama.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000559#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["deforestation","land use","agricultural production","climate policy"],"geography_discussed":["Paraná","Paragominas"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["causal inference","counterfactual analysis","econometric modeling"]}]}