{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["carbon leakage assessment"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'carbon leakage assessment' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=carbon+leakage+assessment","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"climstra-000081","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/climstra-000081","title":"PRODUCT CLASSIFICATION AND ITS IMPLICATION ON COMPETITIVENESS AND CARBON LEAKAGE","publisher":{"name":"Climate Strategies","organization":"climate-strategies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2011","source_url":"https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/aluminium-report-cs-final-version-with-executive-summary.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes the aluminium sector's exposure to carbon leakage, finding that while the sector as a whole is trade-intensive, the risk varies by product. Unwrought non-alloy aluminium is identified as particularly vulnerable due to high trade and CO2 intensity, whereas secondary aluminium and semi-fabricated products pose lower risks. The study highlights a shift in primary production capacity toward China and the Middle East, while the EU27 remains a leader in recycling but continues to export scrap to China.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000081#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The aluminium sector is officially classified as being at risk of carbon leakage under EU ETS criteria, with a calculated trade intensity of 36% and a CO2 cost as a proportion of Gross Value Added (GVA) of 15%, both of which exceed the required thresholds.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000081#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Unwrought non-alloy aluminium (primary aluminium) is highly susceptible to carbon leakage because it combines a high average trade intensity of 79% (2006-2009) with a high CO2 intensity benchmark of 1514 kg CO2/t.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000081#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Secondary aluminium and semi-fabricated products are considered lower risks for carbon leakage; secondary aluminium has a low trade intensity (average 10%) and low CO2 intensity, while semi-fabricated products have low direct emissions and benefit from product specialisation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000081#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Global primary aluminium production shifted between 2005 and 2009, with China's share increasing from 24% to 35%, while the shares of the EU27 and the USA both declined by 3 percentage points.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000081#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The EU27 is a net importer of aluminium, importing products valued at an average of $18 billion annually compared to $8 billion in exports, with unwrought aluminium making up 63% of import value between 2005 and 2010.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000081#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Carbon leakage from the import of unwrought aluminium into the EU27 is a specific concern when the product originates from the Russian Federation due to its high carbon electricity content, whereas imports from Norway do not result in leakage as Norway is an EU ETS member with low-carbon electricity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000081#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["aluminium","carbon leakage","European Union Emission Trading Scheme 1","carbon price","recycling","electric energy consumption"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","United States","Russia","Norway","United Arab Emirates","Switzerland","Canada","Australia","Brazil","Kazakhstan","Germany","Mozambique"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["trade flow analysis","carbon leakage assessment","production output analysis"]},{"id":"climstra-000410","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/climstra-000410","title":"PRODUCT CLASSIFICATION AND ITS IMPLICATION ON COMPETITIVENESS AND CARBON LEAKAGE","publisher":{"name":"Climate Strategies","organization":"climate-strategies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2011","source_url":"https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/pulp-paper-and-paperboard-report-cs-final-with-executive-summary.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes the pulp, paper, and paperboard sectors, finding that while both are classified as at risk of carbon leakage under EU ETS criteria, the drivers of trade intensity are often related to biomass availability and market effects rather than carbon pricing. It highlights a trend of the EU importing raw pulp and low-quality paper while exporting high-quality products, and notes that the export of recovered paper to China may cause 'negative carbon leakage' by depriving EU producers of low-emission raw materials.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000410#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Global production of pulp grew from 171 million tonnes in 2005 to 189 million tonnes in 2010, while paper and paperboard production increased from 364 million tonnes to 394 million tonnes in the same period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000410#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Production levels in the EU27 remained relatively stable between 2005 and 2010, whereas China experienced significant growth in both pulp and paper production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000410#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The EU27 is a net importer of pulp and recovered paper, with average annual imports valued at $6.2 billion and exports at $3 billion between 2005 and 2010. Kraft pulp represents 82% of the average trade value of these imports.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000410#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The EU27 is a net exporter of paper and paperboard, with average annual exports of $17.9 billion compared to $6.2 billion in imports. The region maintains a comparative advantage in high-quality products like coated paper, which accounts for 35% of its exports.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000410#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The export of recovered paper from the EU27 to China is identified as an example of 'negative carbon leakage', as it removes low-emission raw materials from the EU market, potentially increasing the carbon costs for European producers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000410#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Both the manufacture of pulp and the paper and paperboard sectors are officially classified as being at risk of carbon leakage under EU ETS criteria, with pulp showing a trade intensity of 46.1% and paper and paperboard showing 27.5%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000410#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Analysis at the product level shows that most pulp and paper products exceed the 30% absolute trade intensity threshold, but this is attributed to limited biomass availability in Europe and market effects rather than carbon pricing.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000410#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"EU ETS product benchmarks for pulp are near zero, while paper and paperboard benchmarks are around 0.3 t CO2 / t of product, suggesting that differences in trade intensity are not driven by differences in specific emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000410#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon leakage","European Union Emission Trading Scheme 1"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","Brazil","United States","Switzerland","Russia","Canada","Indonesia","Japan","South Korea"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["trade flow analysis","carbon leakage assessment","energy intensity analysis"]}]}