{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["capacity forecasting"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'capacity forecasting' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":3,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=capacity+forecasting","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"ember-000385","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ember-000385","title":"Offshore wind targets underpin acceleration to 2030 and beyond","publisher":{"name":"Ember","organization":"ember"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025-10-30","source_url":"https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/10/Report-Global-Offshore-Wind-Targets-1.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that 27 countries have set national offshore wind targets, with global capacity projected to almost triple from 83 GW in 2024 to 238 GW by 2030. While targets have driven market growth, many countries are expected to miss their 2030 goals due to cost inflation, supply chain pressures, and permitting delays. The analysis highlights a significant gap between current projections and the 413 GW required by 2030 to align with the UAE consensus for tripling renewable capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000385#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"A total of 27 countries have established national offshore wind targets, with 22 of these targeting 2030 and 18 setting post-2030 goals. Additionally, there are 27 subnational targets and three regional targets in Europe (North Sea, Baltic Sea, and EU-level).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000385#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Global offshore wind capacity is projected to increase from 83 GW in 2024 to 238 GW by 2030, nearly tripling in six years. However, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) reduced its 2030 global outlook by 25% over the past year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000385#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite rapid growth, the IEA projects that none of the 12 countries expected to have offshore wind capacity by 2030 will fully meet their targets. The United States is forecast to have the greatest shortfall, while Japan and Korea may only reach about one-third of their 2030 targets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000385#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a gap between current national targets and global climate goals; while national 2030 targets (including China's IEA forecast) reach approximately 395 GW, IRENA indicates that 413 GW is needed by 2030 to track the UAE consensus.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000385#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Seven countries have specific targets for floating offshore wind: the UK (5 GW) and Portugal (2 GW) by 2030, and post-2030 targets for France, Norway, Korea, and the United States. Japan aims for 15 GW of floating wind by 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000385#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China does not have a national target but has 11 coastal provinces with 2025 targets totaling 64 GW. The Beijing Declaration 2.0, signed October 20, 2025, specifies that annual installed wind power capacity during the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) shall include at least 15 GW of offshore wind.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000385#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The World Bank identified 115 countries with offshore wind potential; 88 of these have not yet set targets. Among these, nine are members of the Global Offshore Wind Alliance (GOWA): Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Malta, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Saint Lucia, and Trinidad and Tobago.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000385#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["offshore wind power","energy transition","Nationally Determined Contributions","climate finance","supply chain","energy security"],"geography_discussed":["European Union","United Kingdom","India","United States","People's Republic of China","Brazil","Morocco","New Zealand","Azerbaijan"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","capacity forecasting"]},{"id":"gem-000007","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gem-000007","title":"Trump administration’s policies support rapid growth of geothermal power in United States","publisher":{"name":"Global Energy Monitor","organization":"global-energy-monitor"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025-03-29","source_url":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/trump-administrations-policies-support-rapid-growth-geothermal-power-united-states-12-gw","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Geothermal energy in the U.S. is positioned for rapid growth due to bipartisan support and advancements in Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), with 1.16 GW of capacity expected to come online by 2028. While the Trump administration has deprioritized wind and solar, geothermal has benefited from new categorical exclusions in permitting and expanded tax credits. EGS technology, leveraging oil and gas drilling techniques, allows for expansion beyond traditional geological constraints and is increasingly viewed as a viable 24/7 power source for AI data centers. However, the report notes that geothermal alone cannot meet 2030 electrical demand without the continued rollout of prospective wind and solar capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000007#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The U.S. is the global leader in operating geothermal capacity with 3.7 GW, representing 23% of the world's total capacity as of 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000007#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Bipartisan support and specific policy changes in January 2025 have accelerated geothermal development, including the expansion of the Inflation Reduction Act's investment and production tax credits and a new Bureau of Land Management (BLM) categorical exclusion that may reduce permitting time by up to one year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000007#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) are expanding geothermal's reach by using hydraulic fracturing techniques from the oil and gas industry to access deeper heat reservoirs, removing the need for naturally permeable rocks and water sources.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000007#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Geothermal power is identified as a critical asset for meeting the 24/7 electricity demands of AI data centers, with companies like Google and Meta entering power purchasing agreements (PPAs) to secure green energy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000007#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Global Energy Monitor data indicates that 1.16 GW of geothermal capacity could be operational by the end of President Trump's current term, and there are currently more than 2 GW of EGS power plants in development in the U.S.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000007#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite geothermal's growth, the report argues that a robust energy policy requires the rapid rollout of 218.4 GW of prospective wind and utility-scale solar capacity to meet 2030 electrical demand, as geothermal is best suited for a peaker plant role.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000007#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has set a target of 5 GW of geothermal capacity by 2030 through its Liftoff program, with a long-term goal of 90 GW by 2050 and a target to reduce costs per megawatt hour by 90% by 2035.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000007#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["geothermal power","wind power","energy transition","Inflation Reduction Act of 2022","climate finance","data center"],"geography_discussed":["Nevada","Alaska","Utah","New Mexico","Texas"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","technological assessment","capacity forecasting"]},{"id":"ember-000450","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ember-000450","title":"Insights","publisher":{"name":"Ember","organization":"ember"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2024-02-07","source_url":"https://ember-energy.org/chapter/chapter-2-insights/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"In 2023, EU fossil fuel generation fell to less than a third of the electricity mix (33%) for the first time, driven by a record 26% drop in coal generation. Wind and solar combined for 27% of EU electricity, with wind surpassing gas power for the first time. While solar capacity grew by 56 GW, wind generation growth remains inconsistent and below the 15% annual increase needed for REPowerEU targets. EU electricity demand fell by 3.4% in 2023 to its lowest level since 2001, though a rise of 2-3% is projected for 2024. To support this transition, the EU requires significant grid investments—estimated at €584 billion by 2030—and an increase in storage capacity to 200 GW by 2030 to manage variable renewable energy and reduce curtailment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000450#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Fossil fuel generation in the EU dropped to less than a third of the total electricity mix for the first time in 2023, reaching 33%. This was primarily driven by a record 26% decline in coal generation, with coal accounting for 56% (116 TWh) of the total 209 TWh drop in fossil generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000450#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Coal phase-out","natural gas","wind power","solar energy","renewable electricity","electric energy consumption","energy efficiency","energy infrastructure","energy storage"],"geography_discussed":["Germany","Italy","Poland","Greece","Spain","Netherlands","Lithuania","Latvia","Hungary","Denmark","Ireland","Belgium","France","Finland","Luxembourg","Slovakia","Slovenia","Czech Republic","United Kingdom","Romania","Cyprus","Portugal"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["trend analysis","policy assessment","capacity forecasting"]}]}