{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["capacity forecast"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'capacity forecast' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":1,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=capacity+forecast","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"ember-000528","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ember-000528","title":"Renewable additions in 2025 are once again expected to surge, putting tripling within reach","publisher":{"name":"Ember","organization":"ember"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025-11-06","source_url":"https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Report-2025-Renewable-additions-surging-putting-tripling-within-reach.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Global renewable capacity additions are forecast to reach a record 793 GW in 2025, driven largely by solar and China's deployment. While the actual annual growth rate of additions from 2023 to 2025 (29%) has exceeded the 21% required to triple capacity by 2030, IEA forecasts suggest a potential 15% shortfall in capacity and a 28% shortfall in generation by 2030, primarily due to lags in wind and hydro. National targets remain insufficient, aiming for just over a doubling of capacity (7,793 GW) rather than a tripling, with solar targets particularly lagging behind actual deployment trends.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000528#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Global renewable capacity additions are projected to reach a record 793 GW in 2025, representing an 11% increase over the 717 GW added in 2024.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000528#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China is the primary driver of global growth, expected to account for 66% of solar and 69% of wind capacity additions in 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000528#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The world has outperformed the growth rate needed to triple renewables; additions grew by an average of 29% annually from 2023 to 2025, whereas a 21% annual growth rate was required. Consequently, additions only need to rise by 12% per year from 2026 to 2030 to meet the target.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000528#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite the growth, the IEA's main case forecast predicts a 15% shortfall in capacity by 2030 (reaching 9,530 GW instead of 11 TW). This results in a larger 28% shortfall in electricity generation because the gaps are concentrated in wind and hydro, which have higher capacity factors than solar.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000528#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"National 2030 renewable targets are not aligned with the tripling goal, having increased by only 8% since COP28 to a total of 7,793 GW, which reflects a doubling rather than a tripling of capacity from 2022 levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000528#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant gap between national solar targets and actual deployment; combined national targets are 3,110 GW, which is barely half of the 6,101 GW required for a global tripling.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000528#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Wind capacity targets and forecasts are roughly aligned but both fall short of the 2,742 GW needed for a tripling, with national targets aiming for 2,223 GW.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000528#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["solar energy","wind power","hydropower","2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference","community engagement","2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference","Nationally Determined Contributions","energy storage","electrical grid","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","United States","European Union"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["capacity forecast","policy target analysis","progress tracking"]}]}