{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["capacity expansion planning"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'capacity expansion planning' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":3,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=capacity+expansion+planning","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"eninnova-000212","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/eninnova-000212","title":"SUMMARY REPORT: ECONOMIC AND CLEAN ENERGY BENEFITS OF ESTABLISHING A SOUTHEAST U.S. COMPETITIVE WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY MARKET","publisher":{"name":"Energy Innovation","organization":"energy-innovation"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2020-08","source_url":"https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Economic-And-Clean-Energy-Benefits-Of-Establishing-A-Southeast-U.S.-Competitive-Wholesale-Electricity-Market_FINAL.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that transitioning from the current vertically-integrated monopoly structure to a competitive RTO in the Southeast would generate approximately $384 billion in cumulative savings by 2040. This shift would lower retail electricity costs by 29% and reduce carbon emissions by 37% relative to 2018 levels. The analysis highlights that competition accelerates the deployment of wind, solar, and battery storage, creating a net increase of 285,000 jobs compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The study contrasts this with the current Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) approach, which it characterizes as inefficient due to excessive reserve margins and a reliance on uneconomic coal generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000212#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Establishing a competitive Southeastern RTO would result in cumulative economic savings of roughly $384 billion by 2040 compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) case. By 2040, retail costs would be approximately 2.5¢ per kilowatt-hour (kWh) lower, representing a 29 percent reduction compared to BAU.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000212#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The RTO scenario would significantly reduce carbon emissions, falling approximately 37 percent relative to 2018 levels and 46 percent compared to the IRP Scenario by 2040. Major air pollutants such as NOX, SO2, and PM2.5 would drop to near-zero due to the phase-out of coal generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000212#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Market competition would drive a net increase of 285,000 jobs by 2040 relative to the BAU scenario. This growth is driven by the construction of 62 GW of solar, 41 GW of onshore wind, and 46 GW of battery storage.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000212#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The current IRP-based planning is inefficient, leading to a combined planning reserve margin (PRM) of 48 percent by 2040, far exceeding the North American Electric Reliability Corporation's reference standard of 15 percent. In contrast, the RTO scenario meets a 16 percent PRM in 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000212#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A sensitivity analysis shows that maintaining the existing nuclear fleet through 2040 (RTO with Nuclear Scenario) would further reduce carbon emissions to 41 percent below 2018 levels, with only a minor 0.5 percent increase in overall system costs compared to the standard RTO scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000212#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A partial step toward competition, the Economic IRP Scenario, would achieve about three-quarters of the RTO's cost savings (approximately $298 billion by 2040) but would be less effective at reducing emissions, with carbon dioxide dropping only 13 percent below 2018 levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000212#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["solar energy","battery energy storage system","carbon dioxide emissions","coal power","nuclear power","electric power transmission","distributed generation"],"geography_discussed":["United States","Illinois","New Jersey","New York","People's Republic of China"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modeling","capacity expansion planning","production-cost analysis"]},{"id":"wwf-000378","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wwf-000378","title":"Energy Options Assessment","publisher":{"name":"WWF International","organization":"wwf-international"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/799/35lxjui63u_USAID_Paani_Energy_Options_Assessment_Report_final.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report evaluates Nepal's future energy options, finding that while hydropower remains central, integrating wind, solar, and battery storage can enhance system flexibility and support river conservation. Using the SWITCH model, the study demonstrates that strategic conservation of rivers, such as the Karnali basin, can be achieved with minimal impact on overall system costs. It also highlights the risks of relying solely on hydropower, noting that such a strategy increases costs by 10.7% and requires significant overbuilding of capacity to meet dry-season demand. The analysis further indicates that imports from India are critical for affordability, as eliminating them would increase system costs by approximately 45%. Additionally, the report explores regional equity and export strategies, suggesting that a diversified energy mix can support social goals and potential profitability if export prices exceed 30 $/MWh.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000378#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"In the reference scenario for 2040, hydropower provides 75%-80% of annual energy, with the remaining 20%-25% coming from wind energy and imports. Wind power is profitable from the start, growing to nearly 1 GW by 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000378#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"River conservation in the Karnali basin can be implemented with very low cost; excluding all hydropower projects in the basin increases system costs by only 3.5% compared to the reference scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000378#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A strategy relying exclusively on hydropower is costly, increasing system costs by 10.7% over the reference case. This approach requires overbuilding capacity by 30%-70% to reliably meet peak demand during the dry season.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000378#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Imports from India are essential for cost containment; eliminating imports entirely would result in system costs approximately 45% higher than the reference scenario, while limiting them to 10% of annual load increases costs by 17%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000378#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementing a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) to meet 50% of energy needs with non-hydropower renewables by 2040 increases costs by 8.5%, though this drops to 2.6% if solar PV costs align with lower Indian market rates.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000378#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"An export strategy could be profitable if wholesale prices are above approximately 30 $/MWh. At 40 $/MWh, net costs for 50% and 100% export scenarios are 3% and 6% lower than the reference scenario, respectively, though this excludes transmission expansion costs estimated between $1.6 and $4.9 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000378#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Battery storage can substitute for the flexibility provided by peaking run-of-river (PROR) plants. Removing PROR flexibility increases costs by 4.4%, whereas removing battery storage only increases costs by 1.8%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000378#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"High dependence on hydropower increases vulnerability to cost overruns. If investment is sunk, a 50% increase in hydropower costs raises system costs by 8% in the reference scenario and by 25% in the expansive hydropower scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000378#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regional equity policies that require minimum installed capacity in each load zone have low cost impacts; a 50% equity requirement increases costs by only 2.4% and can reduce transmission costs by approximately 10%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000378#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["hydropower","wind energy","photovoltaics","battery energy storage system","energy independence","Renewable portfolio standard","electric power transmission"],"geography_discussed":["India","Karnali Basin","Bihar","Uttar Pradesh","Uttarakhand"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["least-cost modeling","scenario analysis","capacity expansion planning"]},{"id":"cer-001479","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cer-001479","title":"Formal comments on the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Update Assumptions, Base Case and Observations 2016","publisher":{"name":"Centre for Environmental Rights","organization":"centre-for-environmental-rights"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2017-04-03","source_url":"https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/170403-CSIR-comments-on-the-IRP.pdf?x21779","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The CSIR's analysis of South Africa's Draft IRP 2016 concludes that a 'Least Cost' scenario—prioritising solar PV, wind, and flexible power—is significantly cheaper, creates more jobs, and emits less CO2 than the government's Base Case and Carbon Budget scenarios. The report argues that the Draft IRP 2016 imposes annual new-build constraints on solar and wind without techno-economic justification, which artificially inflates costs and pushes the system toward new coal or nuclear investment. By 2050, the CSIR finds that a renewable energy share of over 70% is cost-optimal. Technical assessments on system inertia and transmission infrastructure indicate that the costs of maintaining stability in a high-renewable system are low, representing less than 1% of total power generation costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001479#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"A 'Least Cost' electricity mix for South Africa by 2050 is dominated by solar PV, wind, and flexible power (such as gas, CSP, hydro, and biogas), with a renewable energy share of over 70% being cost-optimal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001479#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The CSIR's Least Cost scenario is significantly more efficient than the Draft IRP 2016 Base Case by 2050, costing R70 billion per year less, emitting half the CO2, consuming 60% less water, and providing 10% more jobs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001479#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Draft IRP 2016 imposes annual new-build constraints on solar PV (1,000 MW) and wind (1,800 MW) that the CSIR claims lack 'techno-economic justification' and result in the model selecting more expensive technologies like coal or nuclear.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001479#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Decarbonised' scenario, which targets a 95% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050, is estimated to be R50 billion per year more costly than the Least Cost scenario but uses 30% less water and provides 5% more jobs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001479#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Technical analysis of system frequency stability shows that the cost of implementing rotating stabiliser devices (flywheels) to manage low-inertia systems is very low, remaining below 1% of the total cost of power generation by 2050 across all scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001479#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"High-level estimates for transmission network infrastructure indicate that the Least Cost scenario is R20-30 billion per year cheaper than the Draft IRP 2016 Base Case and Carbon Budget scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001479#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The CSIR's medium-term outlook to 2030 suggests that the least-cost technology choices (wind, solar PV, peaking, and gas) are insensitive to demand forecast assumptions, which only affect the scale of build-out.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001479#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","photovoltaics","wind power","natural gas","nuclear power","coal power","decarbonization","carbon dioxide emissions","energy storage","electric vehicle","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Ireland","Germany","United States","Denmark"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["capacity expansion planning","least-cost analysis","scenario modelling","sensitivity analysis","technical stability assessment"]}]}