{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["capacity expansion modeling"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'capacity expansion modeling' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":5,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=capacity+expansion+modeling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"catf-000083","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/catf-000083","title":"Technology Options and Optimal Pathways to a Net-Zero Electricity System in Nigeria Across Different Timelines","publisher":{"name":"Clean Air Task Force","organization":"clean-air-task-force"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-01-28","source_url":"https://www.catf.us/resource/technology-options-optimal-pathways-net-zero-electricity-system-nigeria-across-different-timelines/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study finds that while solar PV is the backbone of Nigeria's net-zero electricity system, the lowest-cost and most reliable pathways require a technology-neutral approach that includes nuclear power and natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Restricting these firm low-carbon technologies increases total installed capacity by approximately 50% and annual investment requirements by about 7%. Under baseline demand, net-zero timelines require average annual investments of US$7–10 billion, but a high-demand scenario aligned with Nigeria Agenda 2050 would increase average annual investment to US$35.8 billion and nearly triple total system costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000083#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"A business-as-usual (BAU) scenario results in a power system that expands to meet demand but remains heavily dependent on unabated fossil fuels, specifically natural gas, failing to achieve deep decarbonization.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000083#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Solar PV is central to all net-zero timelines, providing 37–55% of total electricity generation by 2050, with off-grid solar specifically displacing diesel and gasoline generators.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000083#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The most cost-effective and reliable net-zero pathways are those that allow all low-carbon technologies to compete, including nuclear power and natural gas with CCS. Nuclear power can provide 33–41% of electricity generation by mid-century in these scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000083#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Restricting the use of nuclear power or gas-CCS increases the need for solar PV and battery storage, leading to a roughly 50% increase in total installed capacity and a 7% rise in annual investment requirements.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000083#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While baseline net-zero timelines require average annual investments of US$7–10 billion, a high-demand pathway aligned with Nigeria Agenda 2050 would increase average annual investment to US$35.8 billion and nearly triple total system costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000083#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Net-zero emissions","electrical grid","photovoltaics","nuclear power","carbon capture and storage","battery energy storage system","natural gas","energy access","energy security","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["capacity expansion modeling","scenario analysis","cost-benefit analysis"]},{"id":"catf-000877","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/catf-000877","title":"Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Next-Generation Geothermal Power","publisher":{"name":"Clean Air Task Force","organization":"clean-air-task-force"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2024-03","source_url":"https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/09154348/doe-liftoff-nextgen-geothermal.pdf?_gl=1*1yetcss*_ga*R0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuMTEwNzk1MTMxNy4xNzUzNDc4NzUx*_ga_88025VJ2M0*czE3NTM4OTQwNjQkbzkkZzAkdDE3NTM4OTQwNjUkajYwJGwwJGgxOTA0ODQ2NDc4*_fplc*R1RyJTJGRXlvTW96WGJpYXk3UEZtVjNwc2dqNFA4VVFqTSUyRjNNYm9KZjlpRG5scFo3aWxuUUlDc3VxJTJGVyUyQjhaJTJCbnpmTkhrYVZNbjM1Z0xQN0lIUmVRZ05lalhhSURiMTg2U2xBU3FFYndXSU94Y0wzQks3WG03cjYlMkJXZ3NkQUN3JTNEJTNE*_gcl_au*MTc5Mzg2MTIzMi4xNzUzNDc4NzUy","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that next-generation geothermal technologies, specifically Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and closed-loop systems, can expand U.S. geothermal resource potential from 40 GW to over 5,000 GW by engineering reservoirs in ubiquitous hot rock. It outlines a two-phase pathway: reaching 'liftoff' by 2030 through 2-5 GW of deployment across 5-10 geologic settings, followed by scaling to 90-132 GW by 2050. Key barriers identified include high up-front capital costs, long federal permitting timelines (7-10 years), and the need for power purchase agreements (PPAs) that value clean firm and flexible power. The report highlights that the industry can leverage the existing oil and gas workforce and supply chain to accelerate deployment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000877#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Next-generation geothermal technologies significantly expand the available resource base in the U.S. from an estimated 40 GW for conventional hydrothermal systems to over 5,000 GW by creating reservoirs in ubiquitous hot rock.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000877#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The U.S. could deploy 90-132 GW of next-generation geothermal power by 2050 to support a decarbonized grid, with potential increasing to over 300 GW if land for other renewables is restricted or other nascent technologies fail to commercialize.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000877#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The cost of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) is on a trajectory to reach a national average LCOE of $60-70/MWh by 2030 and a DOE target of $45/MWh by 2035, driven by iterative drilling and reservoir engineering improvements.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000877#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Geothermal power offers unique value as a clean firm and flexible resource; implementing flexible operations to store energy in the subsurface could nearly double its economic deployment by 2050 to 177 GW.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000877#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The industry can leverage a transferable workforce of over 300,000 people from the oil and gas and electric power sectors, with approximately 61% of the oil and gas workforce possessing directly transferable skills for subsurface activities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000877#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Federal permitting for projects on public lands currently takes 7-10 years, but could be reduced by up to 3 years through streamlined categorical exclusions, tandem resource and plant siting, and centralized permitting expertise.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000877#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"High up-front capital costs are a primary barrier, with a 30 MW facility costing approximately $450 million in equity today; the report suggests $5 billion in early capital is needed to finance a portfolio of 10 first-of-a-kind demonstrations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000877#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Next-generation geothermal can provide additional value streams beyond electricity, including direct-use heat for industrial processes and the extraction of lithium from geothermal brines.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000877#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy transition","decarbonization","hydraulic fracturing","power purchase agreement","energy storage","just transition"],"geography_discussed":["California","Nevada","Utah","Germany","Canada"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["techno-economic analysis","market assessment","policy analysis","capacity expansion modeling"]},{"id":"eninnova-000252","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/eninnova-000252","title":"Technical Report: Economic & Clean Energy Benefits of Establishing a Competitive Wholesale Electricity Market in the Southeast United States","publisher":{"name":"Energy Innovation","organization":"energy-innovation"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2020-08","source_url":"https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/SERTO_WISdomP_VCE-EI.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report uses the WIS:dom\u001b-P optimization model to compare four capacity expansion scenarios for the Southeast US: the current SE IRP, an economic IRP without an RTO, an SE RTO, and an SE RTO that retains uneconomic nuclear plants. The findings indicate that the SE RTO scenario is the most economic, offering cumulative savings of $383.7 billion by 2040 and the highest job creation. Retaining nuclear plants further reduces emissions, saving an additional 156.76 million metric tonnes of CO2 by 2040 at a minimal additional cost. The study also highlights the role of variable renewable energy (VRE) and storage in meeting seasonal demand peaks and the importance of transmission expansion in a coordinated regional market.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000252#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Establishing a Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) in the Southeast is the most cost-effective strategy, with cumulative electric sector savings of $383.7 billion by 2040 compared to the current IRP scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000252#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'SE IRP' scenario is the least economic option, resulting in the highest total resource costs and retail rates for consumers, partly due to an excessively high unforced capacity planning reserve margin (PRM) of 49%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000252#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementing optimal capacity expansion without an RTO (the 'SE Economic IRP' scenario) still provides cumulative savings of $298.14 billion by 2040 compared to the SE IRP.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000252#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Retaining uneconomic nuclear generation in an RTO framework ('SE RTO with Nuclear') results in the lowest emissions across all pollutants, saving an additional 156.76 million metric tonnes of CO2 by 2040 compared to the 'SE RTO' scenario, at an additional cost of approximately $9 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000252#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'SE RTO' scenario generates the most employment, adding 407,631 jobs by 2040, driven by increased variable renewable energy (VRE) installations and transmission expansion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000252#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Co-optimizing distribution energy resources (DER) with utility-scale generation leads to significant distribution cost savings: $38.49 billion in the 'SE RTO' scenario and $37.8 billion in the 'SE RTO with Nuclear' scenario by 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000252#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'SE RTO' scenario achieves a 46% decrease in CO2 emissions (2,320 million metric tonnes) compared to the 'SE IRP' scenario, where emissions actually increased by 16% over 2018 levels due to over-building fossil fuel generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000252#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Wind generation paired with storage is well-positioned to meet winter peak loads in the Southeast, whereas solar is best suited for summer afternoon peaks around 2:00 PM EST.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000252#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'SE RTO' and 'SE RTO with Nuclear' scenarios required the installation of approximately 10,000 MW of transmission capacity to ensure a reliable and low-cost energy system.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000252#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"DER generation in the 'SE RTO' scenario reduces peak load by 27,347 MW (an 11.8% reduction) and increases minimum load by 18,158 MW, effectively flattening the demand profile seen by utility-scale generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000252#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The capacity value of solar PV in the Southeast drops sharply to just above 30% by 2025 because its generation peak is not perfectly aligned with the daily load peak.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000252#insight-11","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["nuclear power","wind power","photovoltaics","energy storage","distributed generation","electric power transmission","greenhouse gas emissions","carbon dioxide","particulates","demand-side management","demand response","energy efficiency","climate change"],"geography_discussed":["Alabama","Florida","Georgia","Mississippi","North Carolina","South Carolina","Tennessee","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic analysis","emission analysis","capacity expansion modeling","climate impact assessment"]},{"id":"eninnova-000100","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/eninnova-000100","title":"RELIABLY REACHING CALIFORNIA’S CLEAN ELECTRICITY TARGETS STRESS TESTING ACCELERATED 2030 CLEAN PORTFOLIOS FACT SHEET","publisher":{"name":"Energy Innovation","organization":"energy-innovation"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/GridLab_California-2030-Study-Fact-Sheet-for-Printing.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document finds that reaching an 85% clean electricity target by 2030 is feasible and reliable for California, even under most simultaneous stress conditions. Analysis indicates that while solar and battery storage are primary drivers, a diverse portfolio including offshore wind and geothermal reduces dependence on imports and gas. Battery storage specifically reduces the 'duck curve' ramping requirements by an average of 42%. While the state can retire nearly a third of its in-state gas fleet under certain conditions, some gas remains necessary for reliability unless replaced by comparable firm clean resources. The study emphasizes that sharing power with the rest of the Western United States is more optimal than a 'go it alone' approach.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000100#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Achieving an 85% clean electricity target by 2030 is feasible and reliable, with the ability to serve load across most weather years and stress conditions. The only exception occurred when all stress factors—low hydro, reduced gas, limited imports, and retired coal across the West—were combined, resulting in a small amount of unserved load.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000100#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Battery storage is critical for system reliability, as it reduces the need for gas capacity and significantly lowers ramping requirements. Specifically, the evening net load ramp is reduced from an average of 26.8 GW to 15.5 GW, representing a 42% average reduction in 'duck curve' ramping requirements.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000100#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A diverse resource portfolio including offshore wind and geothermal provides benefits by reducing the need for solar (which faces siting challenges), lowering dependence on in-state gas and imports, and reducing reliance on inverter-based resources.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000100#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"California can potentially retire nearly one-third of its in-state gas fleet while remaining resource adequate, provided it is comfortable relying on imports without contracts. However, some gas remains necessary for reliability unless replaced by firm clean resources such as biomass, hydrogen, nuclear, or long-duration storage.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000100#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Maintaining power sharing with the rest of the Western United States is more cost-optimal than a self-sufficient approach, as the region has sufficient resources to support California's needs even if coal is retired across the West.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000100#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","renewable electricity","solar energy","battery energy storage system","offshore wind power","geothermal energy","natural gas","Demand flexibility","Power system reliability","electric vehicle"],"geography_discussed":["West"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["stress test","production cost modeling","capacity expansion modeling"]},{"id":"eninnova-000194","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/eninnova-000194","title":"ACHIEVING AN 80% CARBON FREE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM IN CHINA BY 2035","publisher":{"name":"Energy Innovation","organization":"energy-innovation"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/China-2035_English.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that achieving an 80% non-fossil electricity share by 2035 is technically feasible and would lower wholesale electricity costs compared to current policy trajectories. This transition would be driven by the declining costs of wind, solar, and battery storage, which the authors argue are now more cost-effective than new coal generation. The 'Clean Energy' scenario would significantly reduce CO2 emissions and premature deaths from air pollution, while resulting in a net increase in employment, despite losses in the coal mining sector. Reliability analysis suggests the system can maintain a 10% operating reserve margin even with high variable renewable penetration and the retirement of 250 to 300 GW of coal capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000194#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"A combination of wind, solar, and battery storage is now more cost-effective for meeting electricity demand growth than building new coal generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000194#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Clean Energy scenario would reduce electricity sector CO2 emissions by 50% (approximately 1,660 MtCO2) and reduce premature deaths from fossil fuel power generation by 47% (around 50,000 deaths) by 2035 relative to current policies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000194#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition to an 80% non-fossil system is projected to create a net increase of 1.9 million cumulative job-years from 2020 to 2035, as gains in wind, solar, and storage sectors offset 1.7 million job-years lost in coal mining.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000194#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Reliability simulations indicate that China's electricity system could maintain a 10% operating reserve margin in 2035 with an 80% non-fossil mix, even during periods of low renewable generation or a 10% demand shock.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000194#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The system could support the retirement of 250 to 300 GW of existing coal generation without compromising reliability, as storage and other resources would fill the capacity gap.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000194#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To reach the 80% target, wind and solar capacity would need to grow to 3,069 GW by 2035, requiring average annual additions of 215 GW between 2030 and 2035.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000194#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Battery storage capacity would need to increase rapidly, reaching 414 GW by 2035 in the Clean Energy scenario compared to 244 GW under current policies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000194#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Offshore wind represents a high-quality resource that could reduce the need for higher-cost onshore resources; in a sensitivity scenario, its share of generation increases to 15% by 2035.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000194#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["photovoltaics","offshore wind power","battery energy storage system","carbon neutrality","electric power transmission","electricity market","climate finance","air quality","greenhouse gas emissions","Resource adequacy","land-use planning"],"geography_discussed":["United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["capacity expansion modeling","production simulation","economic analysis","health impact assessment","employment impact analysis"]}]}