{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["bottom-up modeling"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'bottom-up modeling' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":6,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=bottom-up+modeling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"sei-002151","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002151","title":"The 7th ASEAN Energy Outlook 2020 - 2050","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-10","source_url":"https://leap.sei.org/documents/AEO7.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The 7th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO7) analyzes energy demand, supply, and electricity generation across the ASEAN region through four scenarios: Baseline, AMS Targets (ATS), APAEC Targets (APS), and Least-Cost Optimisation (LCO). It finds that without policy intervention, energy demand will triple by 2050 and fossil fuels will continue to dominate. However, implementing national and regional policies can significantly reduce total final energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The report emphasizes the need for increased energy efficiency, higher renewable energy penetration, and regional grid interconnection to ensure energy security and sustainability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Under the Baseline Scenario, regional energy demand is projected to triple by 2050 compared to 2020 levels, with Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) reaching 1,281.7 Mtoe.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Fossil fuels are expected to remain the dominant energy source in the Baseline Scenario, with oil accounting for 47.4% of TFEC, electricity for 20.3%, coal for 14.5%, and bioenergy for 9.2% by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The region is projected to become a net importer of natural gas by 2025 and coal by 2039 if no significant new discoveries or infrastructure additions occur.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementing regional policies in the APAEC Target Scenario (APS) could reduce TFEC by 53.7% by 2050 compared to the Baseline Scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"ASEAN is projected to miss its regional target of 23% renewable energy (RE) in Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) by 2025, with the AMS Target Scenario (ATS) predicting only 17.5%, leaving a 5.5% gap.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Least-Cost Optimisation (LCO) Scenario suggests a power system that costs USD 174.7 billion less than the APS over the 2021-2050 period, though it results in a 5.3% lower share of RE in TPES by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Energy intensity reduction is projected to reach 29.2% by 2025 under ATS, which falls short of the 32% regional target set by APAEC.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The APS scenario is projected to create up to 5.5 million new jobs by 2050, with 67% of these in hydropower and 10% in geothermal construction, operation, and maintenance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Biofuel production in the APS scenario would require approximately 5.6 million hectares of land for oil palm and 3.2 million hectares for sugar cane.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The LCO Scenario identifies several cost-effective interconnection projects to be operational by 2025, including lines between Thailand and Peninsular Malaysia, Peninsular Malaysia and Sumatra, Sarawak and Brunei Darussalam, Lao PDR and Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar, and Thailand and Cambodia.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Universal electrification in ASEAN is projected to be achieved by 2040 under the ATS and APS scenarios, with Cambodia being the final country to reach this target.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-11","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Clean cooking access is projected to reach only 90.28% by 2050 under the APS scenario, failing to meet the SDG7 target of 100% by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-12","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The social cost of energy in 2050 is projected to be USD 5,457 billion in the Baseline Scenario, but could be reduced to USD 2,358 billion under the APS scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-13","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The LCO Scenario introduces nuclear energy into the region's power mix, with 5.2 GW deployed by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-14","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy efficiency","renewable energy","greenhouse gas emissions","energy security","energy transition","electric vehicle","biofuel","hydropower","geothermal energy","solar energy","wind power","nuclear power","carbon capture and storage","clean cooking","electrification","climate finance","energy storage"],"geography_discussed":["Brunei","Cambodia","Indonesia","Laos","Malaysia","Myanmar","Philippines","Singapore","Thailand","Vietnam"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","bottom-up modeling","least-cost optimisation","decomposition analysis"]},{"id":"newclim-000263","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/newclim-000263","title":"CDM supply potential up to 2020","publisher":{"name":"NewClimate Institute","organization":"newclimate-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2017-08-10","source_url":"http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/discussion-paper-cdm-supply-potential-up-to-2020","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The paper estimates the CER supply potential for 2013-2020 at 4.7 billion CERs, noting that 82% comes from projects not vulnerable to discontinuing greenhouse gas abatement. This figure is significantly lower than the 7.7 G t CO2 e estimated in project design documents, with hydro and wind power projects providing the largest share (61%) of the potential.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000263#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The estimated CER supply potential for the period 2013 to 2020 is approximately 4.7 billion CERs. This is significantly lower than the ex-ante emission reduction estimates of 7.7 G t CO2 e found in project design documents for the same timeframe.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000263#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The majority of the CER supply potential (82%) is derived from projects that are not considered vulnerable to discontinuing greenhouse gas abatement. Only 4% comes from projects deemed vulnerable that can still issue CERs, while 13% have variable vulnerability and 2% were not assessed.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000263#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Hydro and wind power projects are the primary contributors to the CER supply potential, accounting for 61%. In contrast, industrial gas projects contribute 8%, a decrease from the first commitment period when they represented 52% of issued CERs, and Programmes of activities (PoAs) account for 3%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000263#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["clean development mechanism","carbon emission trading","hydropower","wind power"],"geography_discussed":["Germany"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative estimation","bottom-up modeling"]},{"id":"sei-002307","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002307","title":"Strategies for Development of Green Energy Systems in Mongolia","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2014-03","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/GGGI-SEI-2014-Mongolia-green-energy-systems.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes Mongolia's energy transition using four scenarios: a coal-heavy reference case, a 'recent plans' case, an 'expanded green energy' case, and a 'shift in energy export' case. It finds that aggressive energy efficiency and renewable energy deployment could halve territorial GHG emissions by 2035 and reduce overall energy demand by 32% compared to the reference scenario. The study highlights the potential for Mongolia to shift from exporting coal to exporting renewable electricity to Northeast Asia, which would significantly reduce extraction-based emissions and mitigate the economic risk of 'carbon entanglement'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002307#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"In the reference scenario, Mongolia's total energy demand is projected to rise from under 150 petajoules (PJ) in 2010 to over 400 PJ by 2035, with electricity and oil products growing more than five times their 2010 levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002307#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The expanded green energy scenario could reduce total energy demand by 32% relative to the reference scenario by 2035, slowing the average growth rate of energy use from 4.7% to 3.1% between 2010 and 2035.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002307#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under the expanded green energy scenario, the share of renewable energy in electricity generation could exceed 40% by 2030, compared to remaining under 5% through 2035 in the reference scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002307#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementing all measures in the expanded green energy scenario could reduce territorial GHG emissions by 28 million tonnes CO2e in 2035, a reduction of nearly 50% compared to the reference scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002307#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The expanded green energy scenario is estimated to be more cost-effective than the reference scenario, with a cumulative net present value (NPV) benefit of nearly 400 million USD through 2035, primarily due to fuel savings from energy efficiency.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002307#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'shift in energy export' scenario proposes that Mongolia could install nearly 12 GW of renewables in the South Gobi by 2031 to export renewable electricity to Northeast Asia, potentially displacing the value of coal exports.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002307#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"From an extraction-based accounting perspective, shifting from coal exports to renewable electricity exports could reduce Mongolia's contribution to global GHG emissions by 180 MtCO2 by 2035.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002307#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The five most effective measures for GHG abatement identified are energy efficiency in the mining sector, wind power, hydropower, higher-efficiency new coal power plants, and shifting transport modes to rail.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002307#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The expanded green energy scenario could reduce nationwide sulfur oxide (SOx) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions by over 50% by 2035 compared to the reference case.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002307#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Mongolia has one of the highest levels of fossil fuel subsidies in the world, with the IMF reporting that the country devoted 4.6% of its GDP to subsidizing coal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002307#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","energy efficiency","greenhouse gas emissions","coal","wind power","photovoltaics","hydropower","district heating","mining industry","air pollution","green growth","energy subsidy"],"geography_discussed":["Ulaanbaatar","People's Republic of China","Russia","South Gobi","South Korea","Japan"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","techno-economic analysis","bottom-up modeling"]},{"id":"sei-001254","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001254","title":"Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System – Methodology and Results","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2012-04","source_url":"https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/BUENAS.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS) is a policy analysis tool developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to model energy demand for appliances and equipment in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. It projects energy consumption from 2005 to 2030 across 12 individual countries and the European Union, covering approximately 62% of global final energy demand (increasing to 77% if China is included). The model utilizes a modified Kaya identity—Energy = (Activity × Intensity) / Efficiency—and is implemented via the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system. BUENAS evaluates three scenarios: Business As Usual (BAU), Recent Achievements (modeling MEPS implemented or announced between 2010 and 2011), and Best Practice (assuming the adoption of the world's most stringent standards by 2015). Results indicate that the Best Practice scenario could reduce CO2 emissions by approximately 988 mt by 2030, with the most significant electricity savings projected in the residential (27%) and commercial (22%) sectors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001254#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"BUENAS covers 12 individual countries and the 27 Member States of the European Union as a single entity, representing 62% of global final energy demand based on 2005 IEA data, which would rise to 77% if China were integrated.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001254#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The model's scope includes residential end uses (such as air conditioning, refrigeration, and lighting), commercial building end uses (air conditioning, lighting, refrigeration, space heating, and laundry), and industrial electric motors over 750 kW and distribution transformers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001254#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Best Practice Scenario' projects that by 2030, total emissions reductions for the covered equipment would be approximately 988 mt of CO2, which is roughly 4.5 times the savings achieved since January 2010.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001254#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under the Best Practice Scenario, electricity savings are most significant in the residential sector (27% reduction) and the commercial sector (22% reduction) compared to 2030 demand.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001254#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The United States and the European Union are projected to have the highest energy savings in the Recent Achievements Scenario due to their economic size, the volume of efficiency activities, and better data availability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001254#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The model employs different activity estimation methods based on data availability: unit sales flows, ownership rates, or econometric modeling driven by macroeconomic trends (GDP per household, urbanization, and electrification).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001254#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Business As Usual (BAU) scenario assumes 'frozen efficiency' from 2010 onwards, meaning the efficiency of new products remains constant unless specific market-driven projections are available.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001254#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy efficiency","greenhouse gas emissions"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","Chile"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["bottom-up modeling","scenario analysis","policy impact assessment"]},{"id":"sei-001275","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001275","title":"Incorporation of Environmental Considerations in Energy Planning in the People’s Republic of China","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"1995-11","source_url":"https://leap.sei.org/documents/ChinaUNEPNEPA.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes China's energy system, which was heavily coal-dependent in 1990, and projects environmental loadings up to 2020. It compares a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario with two enhanced environmental scenarios, demonstrating that while BAU leads to significant increases in SO2 and CO2 emissions, targeted policy interventions in energy mix, efficiency, and clean coal technology can mitigate these impacts. The study recommends shifting toward hydropower, nuclear power, and natural gas, alongside the implementation of pollution levies and integrated planning to achieve sustainable development.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001275#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"In 1990, coal was the dominant energy source in China, accounting for 76.19% of primary energy consumption. Coal combustion was the primary driver of air pollution, contributing 95.71% of SO2 emissions, 98.83% of smoke dust, and 87.20% of CO2 emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001275#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, pollutant emissions are projected to grow significantly by 2020. SO2 emissions are expected to rise from 16.23 million tons in 1990 to 35.52 million tons, while CO2 emissions are projected to increase from 650 million tons to 1.64 billion tons of carbon equivalent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001275#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Enhanced environmental scenarios demonstrate the potential to reduce the share of coal in the primary energy supply by 2020. Scenario II, the most optimistic, would reduce coal's proportion from 64% in the BAU scenario to 55.1%, while increasing the shares of hydropower to 9.49% and nuclear power to 7.28%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001275#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study identifies several cost-effective mitigation options for reducing SO2 emissions. The lowest cost option is shifting high-quality coal from utility to industrial boilers in urban areas (117 Yuan per ton of SO2 reduced), followed by switching to washed coal (400 Yuan) and improving honeycomb briquette stoves (572 Yuan).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001275#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report argues that fundamentally solving environmental issues requires improving the primary energy production mix by developing hydropower and nuclear power and expanding imports of oil and natural gas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001275#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To ensure the implementation of energy policies, the report recommends a combination of legal, economic, and administrative instruments. This includes implementing a 'pollution levy fee system' where charges are marginally higher than the cost of pollution control, and establishing CO2 taxes and environmental resource compensation within 3-5 years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001275#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study emphasizes the need for an integrated energy-environment planning system that incorporates environmental damage costs and resource compensation into the cost of energy production to balance economic growth with ecological protection.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001275#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","greenhouse gas","energy efficiency","hydropower","nuclear power","natural gas","bioenergy","carbon tax","sustainable development","environmental impact assessment"],"geography_discussed":["Beijing","Guangxi","India"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","cost-effectiveness analysis","cost-benefit analysis","bottom-up modeling"]},{"id":"sei-001274","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001274","title":"China’s Sustainable Energy Future","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"executive summary","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/ChinaScenariosSummary.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes three scenarios—Ordinary Effort, Promoting Sustainability, and Green Growth—to model China's energy demand and carbon emissions through 2020. It finds that while industry will remain the primary energy consumer, aggressive policies in energy efficiency, fuel switching to natural gas, and the expansion of renewables and nuclear power can significantly decouple GDP growth from energy consumption and carbon emissions. Specifically, the Green Growth scenario demonstrates that carbon emissions could increase by only 50% compared to more than doubling under a business-as-usual approach, provided there is substantial investment in clean energy infrastructure and rigorous enforcement of efficiency standards across the industrial, transportation, and building sectors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001274#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"China could quadruple its GDP between 1998 and 2020 with primary energy use increasing by 70% to 130%, depending on the demand for energy services.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001274#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The industrial sector will remain the largest energy consumer through 2020, accounting for 56% to 58% of all final energy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001274#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Depending on policy aggression, energy-related carbon emissions between 1998 and 2020 could either more than double or increase by only 50%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001274#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Coal will continue to be the dominant primary energy source through 2020, providing between 54% and 65% of China's energy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001274#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Oil demand is projected to grow annually by 3.3% to 4.6%, potentially leading to oil imports of 200 to 320 Mtoe per year by 2020.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001274#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Natural gas consumption in 2020 is estimated to range from 4.5 EJ (120 bcm) to 7.3 EJ (190 bcm), representing 5% to 11% of final energy consumption.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001274#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Transportation energy demand is expected to grow rapidly, with annual growth rates between 4.6% and 6.3% through 2020, dominated by freight transport (60% to 64% of the total).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001274#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Building energy use is projected to grow by 4.4% to 5.9% annually, with space heating accounting for 54% of the sector's energy use.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001274#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Sustainable electricity growth requires a diversified mix of technologies, including nuclear power (potentially reaching 40 GW by 2020 in the Green Growth scenario) and wind power (potentially reaching 30 GW by 2020).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001274#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","carbon dioxide","energy efficiency","coal","natural gas","petroleum","hydropower","nuclear power","wind power","photovoltaics","fuel cell","public transport","energy efficient building","carbon dioxide emissions"],"geography_discussed":["World","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","bottom-up modeling","energy accounting"]}]}