{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["baseline projection"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'baseline projection' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=baseline+projection","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"cdkn-000707","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cdkn-000707","title":"Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Report","publisher":{"name":"Climate and Development Knowledge Network","organization":"climate-and-development-knowledge-network"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2016-09","source_url":"https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Pakistan-GHG-Emissions-Reference-Case-Report-Oct-27.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report establishes a business-as-usual (BAU) GHG emissions baseline for Pakistan, projecting total emissions to reach 768 Mt CO2e by 2030. Agriculture is identified as the largest emission source, accounting for over 40% of emissions in 2012. The energy sector is further divided into residential, commercial, industrial, transport, and electricity generation. The analysis highlights significant data gaps in agriculture, LULUCF, and waste sectors, and concludes that GDP growth is the primary driver of future emission levels, with a high-growth scenario potentially increasing 2030 emissions by 36% relative to the reference case.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000707#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"In 2012, total GHG emissions for Pakistan were estimated at 365 Mt CO2e, with the agriculture sector being the largest contributor at 165 Mt CO2e, representing 42% of the total.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000707#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The reference case projects that total annual GHG emissions will increase from 365 Mt CO2e in 2012 to 768 Mt CO2e by 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000707#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The agriculture sector is the most significant source of emissions, contributing over 40% of total national emissions in 2012, with livestock enteric fermentation and manure management as primary drivers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000707#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The electricity sector is expected to face a persistent supply gap; while the shortage may nearly close by 2018, it is projected to increase again to 27 TWh by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000707#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Transportation emissions are primarily driven by the growth of on-road passenger and freight vehicles, with an expected addition of more than 50 million new vehicles by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000707#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The LULUCF sector is characterized by high uncertainty and a significant loss of forest cover, with an average deforestation rate estimated at 42,200 hectares per year between 1990 and 2015.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000707#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"GDP growth is the most critical driver of future emissions; a scenario with 3% higher GDP growth than the reference case would increase 2030 emissions by 36% (an additional 278 Mt CO2e).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000707#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Autonomous energy efficiency improvements (AEEI) have a relatively small impact compared to GDP growth, with a 50% increase in AEEI resulting in only a 3% decrease in 2030 emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000707#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The waste sector is the smallest contributor, representing less than 5% of total emissions, with industrial wastewater identified as the fastest-growing source within that sector.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000707#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","energy transition","agriculture","livestock","electricity generation","renewable energy","solar energy","wind power","transportation","Villevocance","deforestation","waste management","wastewater treatment","energy efficiency"],"geography_discussed":["Tharparkar District"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["baseline projection","scenario analysis","sensitivity analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-001955","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-001955","title":"Republic of Rwanda: Greenhouse gas emissions baseline projection","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2013-03","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/rep_of_rwanda_greenhouse_gas.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report establishes a business-as-usual emissions baseline for Rwanda from 1990 to 2030, identifying agriculture as the largest non-LULUCF emitting sector. It projects a transition from a significant net carbon sink in 2000 to a net emitter by 2010, with future projections based on GDP growth, population increases, and existing policies. The analysis highlights substantial data gaps and uncertainties, particularly in the LULUCF and agriculture sectors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001955#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Agriculture is the primary source of non-LULUCF emissions in Rwanda, representing approximately 65 per cent of such emissions in 2010, with cultivated soils accounting for about 70 per cent of the sector's total.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001955#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Rwanda's net emissions profile shifted from being a significant carbon sink in 2000 (-9,504 ktCO2e) to a net contributor to global emissions by 2010 (5,103 ktCO2e).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001955#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector acted as a net sink every year between 2000 and 2010, with removals estimated at -14,238 kt in 2000 and -1,866 kt in 2010.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001955#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Baseline projections for the electricity sector assume a 10 per cent annual increase in diesel fuel demand for generation between 2010 and 2030, noting that thermal generation reached nearly 50 per cent of total production by 2011.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001955#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Energy demand emissions are primarily driven by biomass combustion, with wood and charcoal consumption being significant; future biomass fuel growth is limited to a forecast population growth rate of 2.6 per cent due to supply constraints.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001955#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies high levels of uncertainty in LULUCF and agriculture data, noting that the LULUCF model is basic and does not account for forest fires or specific biomass growth rates, while agricultural data for cultivated soils is insufficient to reproduce SNC inventory estimates.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001955#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","agriculture","electricity generation","energy demand","transportation","carbon sequestration","diesel fuel"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["baseline projection","sectoral analysis"]}]}