{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["attribution science"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'attribution science' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":4,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=attribution+science","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"climcent-000191","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/climcent-000191","title":"More Coffee-Harming Heat Due to Carbon Pollution","publisher":{"name":"Climate Central","organization":"climate-central"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-02-18","source_url":"https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/more-coffee-harming-heat-due-to-carbon-pollution-2026","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Analysis by Climate Central indicates that all 25 analyzed coffee-producing countries, representing 97% of global production, experienced an increase in 'coffee-harming heat' (temperatures above 30°C) between 2021 and 2025 due to carbon pollution. The top five producers—Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia—saw an average of 57 additional days of such heat annually. Brazil, the largest producer, experienced 70 extra days of coffee-harming heat per year on average. These conditions threaten both arabica and robusta coffee varieties, with arabica being more sensitive to heat. The report warns that land suitable for coffee farming could decrease by 50% by 2050 without adaptation, potentially leading to deforestation as farmers move to higher elevations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000191#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Between 2021 and 2025, all 25 analyzed coffee-growing countries, which together account for approximately 97% of global production, experienced an increase in coffee-harming heat caused by climate change.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000191#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The five largest coffee-producing nations—Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia—which provide 75% of the global supply, faced an average of 57 additional days per year of temperatures exceeding the 30°C threshold due to climate change.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000191#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Brazil, the world's leading coffee producer, saw an average of 70 additional days of coffee-harming heat annually, with its primary coffee-growing state, Minas Gerais, experiencing 67 extra days.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000191#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Among the 25 countries analyzed, the highest number of additional coffee-harming heat days were recorded in El Salvador (99), Nicaragua (77), and Thailand (75).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000191#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Without adequate adaptation, the amount of land suitable for coffee cultivation may be reduced by 50% by the year 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000191#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","climate change","deforestation","extreme event attribution","extreme weather event","smallholder"],"geography_discussed":["Brazil","Vietnam","Colombia","Ethiopia","Indonesia","Minas Gerais","El Salvador","Nicaragua","Thailand","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["attribution science"]},{"id":"climcent-000343","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/climcent-000343","title":"People Exposed to Climate Change: December 2024-February 2025","publisher":{"name":"Climate Central","organization":"climate-central"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025-03-19","source_url":"https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/6hUuAna5t65LBwxT5YJhVn/abd5f2a80bc8f6a0e716612e17be257f/Report__People_Exposed_to_Climate_Change__Dec_2024-Feb_2025.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that human-caused climate change significantly increased extreme heat and health risks globally from December 2024 to February 2025. At least 1.8 billion people experienced temperatures at least twice as likely due to climate change every day of the period, with exposure peaking at 3 billion people on February 28, 2025. Africa was particularly affected, with 293 million people experiencing 30 or more 'risky heat days' added by climate change. The analysis also highlights that 110 out of 220 analyzed countries and 287 out of 940 cities saw the average person experience strong climate influence for at least one-third of the season.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000343#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Between December 1, 2024, and February 28, 2025, at least 1.8 billion people, or 22% of the global population, experienced temperatures at CSI level 2 or higher (meaning they were at least twice as likely because of climate change) every single day. This exposure reached a peak on February 28, 2025, affecting 3 billion people, or 37% of the global population.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000343#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Human-induced climate change added five risky heat days to the average person's experience globally during the three-month period; without climate change, the average person would have experienced only one risky heat day. Over 394 million people experienced 30 or more risky heat days added by climate change, with 74% of those people (293 million) living in Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000343#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In 50% of the 220 analyzed countries, the average person experienced temperatures with a strong climate change influence (CSI level 2 or higher) for at least 30 days. Regional data shows that 84% of people in South America and 69% of people in Africa experienced at least 30 days at CSI level 2.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000343#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Analysis of 940 global cities shows that in 287 of them, the average person experienced a strong climate change influence for 30 days or more. Among 38 megacities (populations over 10 million), 11 cities—representing over 210 million people—endured CSI level 2 heat for at least one-third of the season.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000343#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the United States, 110 out of 247 analyzed cities (approximately 45%) had average temperatures that were normal or warmer-than-normal. Additionally, 194 U.S. cities experienced at least one day at CSI level 2, and 14 cities—mostly in western regions—experienced at least 21 days at CSI level 2.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000343#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The period saw extreme weather events globally: South America had heat waves and wildfires in Chile and Patagonia, and catastrophic flooding in Brazil; North America experienced deadly wildfires in California and a once-in-a-lifetime winter storm in New Orleans; Eastern Africa faced deadly cyclones (Chido and Dikeledi); Europe had one of its warmest winters on record and severe storms (Éowyn and Herminia); and Asia saw fatal rainfall and cyclones (Fengal).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000343#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["extreme heat","wildfire","flood","tropical cyclone","urban heat island"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","South America","North America","Europe","Asia","Oceania","United States","Nigeria","Indonesia","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Uganda","Ghana","Tanzania","Ivory Coast","Brazil","Madagascar","Papua New Guinea","Cameroon","Comoros","Solomon Islands","Liberia","Vanuatu","Equatorial Guinea","Federated States of Micronesia","Tuvalu","Mauritius","Rwanda","Brunei","Malta","Jamaica","Suriname","Northern Mariana Islands"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["seasonal analysis","attribution science"]},{"id":"zca-000015","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/zca-000015","title":"Oil and gas fuelling extreme weather in Argentina","publisher":{"name":"Zero Carbon Analytics","organization":"zero-carbon-analytics"},"document_type":"briefing","language":"en","date_published":"2024-10-24","source_url":"https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/oil-and-gas-fuelling-extreme-weather-in-argentina/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document links the increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves, droughts, and floods in Argentina to human-caused climate change, specifically highlighting the role of fossil fuel emissions. It notes that while Argentina has a 2050 net-zero target, the government continues to prioritize oil and gas production, particularly in the Vaca Muerta fields, and provides significantly more investment to 'dirty energy' than to renewables. The briefing also identifies a lack of transparent emissions data for individual firms and notes that lobbying by fossil fuel companies has secured production-friendly policies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000015#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Attribution studies indicate that climate change has significantly increased the likelihood and intensity of extreme weather in Argentina, including a 2013 heatwave made five times more likely and a 2023 event that was 1.4-4.3ºC hotter due to fossil fuel emissions. Climate change also exacerbated agricultural drought in late 2022 by reducing water availability, contributing to a 1.6% shrinkage of the Argentinian economy in 2023 as agricultural production fell by 26%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000015#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Domestic oil and gas production is a growing source of greenhouse gas emissions in Argentina, with IEA data showing that emissions from oil grew by 43% and emissions from gas rose by 27% between 2000 and 2022. Fugitive emissions are a specific concern, with estimates suggesting approximately 10% of gas produced in the Vaca Muerta fields is lost through such leaks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000015#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite a 2050 net-zero target, the Argentinian government prioritizes fossil fuel expansion over renewable energy, with the 2021 budget allocating approximately USD 184 to 'dirty energy' for every USD 1 invested in renewables and efficiency. Climate Action Tracker has rated Argentina's overall policies as 'Critically Insufficient', the lowest possible rating, due to their failure to limit temperature rises in line with climate science.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000015#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The oil and gas sector, led by the majority state-owned YPF and various international majors, has successfully lobbied the government for production-friendly policies and incentives for fossil fuel infrastructure. This is particularly evident in the expansion of production in the Vaca Muerta fields, as the government views increased production as the basis for future economic prosperity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000015#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","fossil fuel industry","extreme weather event","heat wave","drought","flood","shale gas","renewable energy","wind energy","electric vehicle","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Vaca Muerta oil field","Brazil","Mexico"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["attribution science","policy analysis","economic impact assessment"]},{"id":"wwatt-000030","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wwatt-000030","title":"Ethiopia drought 2015","publisher":{"name":"World Weather Attribution","organization":"world-weather-attribution"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2015-07-24","source_url":"https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/ethiopia-drought-2015/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The 2015 drought in north and central Ethiopia was an extremely rare event, estimated to occur once every few hundred years in the current climate. Analysis by World Weather Attribution indicates that a strong El Niño enhanced the drought, making it significantly drier during the Kiremt season. However, the study found no conclusive evidence that human-induced climate change influenced the event, as results from various climate models were inconsistent and spanned a range from the drought being less likely to more likely. Despite the severity of the event, which affected nearly 10 million people and caused significant crop and livestock losses, the impact was lower than droughts in 1973 and 1984, suggesting improved national resilience.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwatt-000030#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The 2015 drought in central to northeastern Ethiopia was an exceptionally rare event with a best-estimate return period of 260 years in the current climate, though estimates range from 60 to several hundred years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwatt-000030#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A strong El Niño significantly intensified the drought; without its influence, the event would have been wetter, with a return period of approximately 80 years instead of 260 years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwatt-000030#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is no conclusive evidence that human-induced climate change played a role in the 2015 drought, as different climate models produced conflicting results regarding the likelihood of such an event.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwatt-000030#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The drought caused severe livelihood and food security crises, affecting nearly 10 million people, with some areas reporting over 75 percent crop loss, one million livestock deaths, and hundreds of thousands of people experiencing severe acute malnutrition.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwatt-000030#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["drought","El Niño southern oscillation","climate change","food security","precipitation","climate modeling"],"geography_discussed":["Addis Ababa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["attribution science"]}]}